michelangelosmonkey

This is my argument from earlier. Let's say we get in time machine and make a trade with 2022 Tigers. We get #4 overall prospect Spencer Torkelson (career -0.3 WAR), #40 overall Jackson Jobe (Career WAR 0.1) and solve our long-term catching problem with Tigers #4 prospect Dillon Dingler (Career WAR -0.3) plus a flyer pick. That's a top 5 a top 50, PLUS Tigers 4th best prospect plus some A ball player we think has real upside??? If we got that package we would have been over the moon. If we get that from some team, in this era of teams not trading top position players, we would be hugging ourselves. The problem is prospects are all risky until they're not. Certainly, SSS but Jackson Holiday with about the same number of at bats as James McCann put up 1/8 of the WAR. Coby Mayo struck out in half his at bats in 17 games. Untouchable. Our 25-year-old ace who's succeeded in the majors...MUST be traded. Sigh

I forgot about the diminished skills clause. JR is evil.

I'm not saying they will go from $38 mill payroll to $240 mill payroll this offseason. I'm saying that there are GM's out there that never have a budget above bottom 10. That's NOT the White Sox. JR will spend money if there is a plan to make the team plus attendance better. I don't think they will ever again get into an open bidding war because if they don't win...it just feeds the negativity beast. But I think Soto at 26, with negative defensive value not getting Ohtani money is not impossible. Sox behind the scenes throwing out a $500 mill offer? Not impossible. Convincing him of charismatic new manager, building a marketing machine to push him as the face of Chicago, Aces on the way? not impossible.

I mean clearly you are right because they didn't get him. Still If I come to you and say "here is generational wealth plus your two best friends will be on the team" and someone else says "here's a little more money" I'm not certain which way I would go. I think it was a serious effort and it failed. Wheeler was the BEST offer and it failed. Sox luck has been bad

I'm not shifting gears??? I'm just the least drunk guy at the AA meeting. I don't think we are doomed to 10 years of 100 loss baseball as many here seem to think. Yes yes yes...the sox did not do things right in the past...that's exactly what I was saying...they covered up organizational rot with big payroll and hot shot young core. Getz seems to recognize that and they are working hard to fix it. Yes Getz was in charge of the minors but seems like maybe what he took away from his time then is Holy Crap we are doomed we need to change things. They've had three or four good drafts in a row. They are taking the minors seriously. Revamping their international scouting. Drafting high schoolers like Wolkow, trading for teenagers like Zavala, signing international guys like Mogollon. In 2022 the MLB team looked great hiding the disaster that was behind it. In 2024 the MLB was a disaster hiding what I think is some coming excitement. Crochet, Smith, Schultz, Taylor could be glorious.

I'm arguing that the "fact" that they won't sign Crochet is just our battered opinions. I have presented the truth that JR will pay a top five payroll, that they HAVE given the highest contract in the game (1997 Albert Belle) and followed that up two years later with Frank getting a $64 mill contract which in 2024 dollars is WAY more than $100 mill...and that Getz is doing things differently. What is a greater disaster...hoping Crochet becomes Randy Johnson and his arm falls off, or trading him, he becomes Randy Johnson and you end up with Yoan Moncada 2.0? For me option 2 is much more painful.

It seems like there were incentives that would bring it to over $300 mill. From going and looking back...the Yankees dropped out at 7 years $220 mill while the WSox had 8/$250 plus incentives plus signing his two best friends. He signed for 10 years $300 million. I just think this idea that they were uncompetitive because of JR's cheapness when they outbid the Yankees is just fiction.

1995 5th highest 2006 4th 2011 5th 2022 7th As I've argued here in the past, JR is a businessman and he recognizes that Sox fans come if the team is good but they don't if the team is bad. Their base attendance looks like 17,000 per game. But when the team is winning it's more like 27,000 a game. 10,000 fans x 81 x $100 is $81 million a year extra between Ok and good. Post WS it was nearly 37,000 per game which is like $160 mill extra revenue. JR spends when the fans come. Cubs base is more like 30,000 per game.

White Sox had the top offer for Wheeler. They had $300 mill plus incentives on the table for Machado and signed his two best friends to be on the team. In spite the narrative that lives here, they weren't trying to bargain basement offer the guys because of JR's cheapness. I don't know why they never tried for Harper. Always thought he was the best fit for the team at the time.

I'm not saying they have a good shot at the playoffs next year. I'm saying a 25-year-old lefty with ace stuff traded for some team's 2nd best prospect and some wild cards has enormous risks. When the White Sox traded Chris Sale and Jose Quintana they were each 28. Carlos Rodon was 29 when they let him go. I think that matters. Montreal traded a tall power pitching lefty with ace like stuff when he was 25. Don't you have some fear we are trading Randy Johnson? Everyone falls in love with some other team's "beasts" that are going to crush MLB pitching and then SO many fail. Yes there is a danger that Crochet's arm falls off but I watched Crochet last year, no one on this board or anywhere else thought he could pitch 149 innings. His last two starts against playoff teams and he threw 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk 14 k's no runs. Ugh and we are going to trade him for Yoan Moncada or Eloy Jimeniz

That $100 million is just a number. They signed Albert Belle in 1997 to a $55 million contract making him the highest paid player in baseball and two years late sighed Frank Thomas to a $64 million/7 year contract. With baseball inflation those would be WAY higher than $100 million in 2024.

Not sure where the figures come from. Sportrac had 2022 WS at $203 mill, 2022 (Dodgers at $270 mill.) 2024 Dodgers at $240 mill but with accounting nonsense Ohtani's $70 mill was only $2 mill. So Dodgers were really at $310 mill. Still I generally agree with you. Better to give Elko a shot at DH or Cannon a 5th starter spot for nothing than to sign aging DH and aging 5th starter at $40 mill per year. Bundle the savings on one or two difference makers. But again...CROCHET should be that difference maker. Let him prove it this year and next and then drop a 10 year $300 million contract on him

I'm not sure that is how the organization works. A sycophant is someone who sucks up to the boss. Seems like JR let KW and RH run the baseball stuff and was wildly, sadly loyal to them...that is like sycophant in reverse. Who's to say if Getz has a $200 million budget that he doesn't believe that signing Soto for $70 mil per year isn't better than spending $70 mill on Grandal/Keuchel/Lynn and a bunch of relief pitchers. WE don't know. What we know is that the budget HAS been high. That's JR. And we know it was done poorly.

Why are we bringing the A's into this? The White Sox in the 90's 00's, 10's and 20's have had top 5 payroll. That's JR's budget. The argument is the baseball guys spent it stupidly. Fair enough. But it seems we have finally come to terms with the fact that the KW/RH admin was stupid and gutted the organization. But it wasn't because we had no payroll. And I didn't say "franchise altering prospect". Alonso would be more in the Grandal/Keuchel/ Lynn sort of high second tier.

Pasquantino is not much better than Vaughn. Vaughn had .750 OPS the previous two years P had .760...and I'm not really counting on Vaughn as more than a failed prospect. I said they should sign a big contract on a hitter. So Alonso + Vaughn is as good as Salvy + P and I think Montgomery, Quero and Soso could be better than the Royals 4-5-6 bats. As for "we will never do this"...it's a new era. There is a ton of payroll available. Getz seems in charge. He drafted Smith...the idea of three amazing left handed starters is fun.

That's not my point...my point is KC did it with ONE guy having an OPS above .800. But Witt was MVP level. Robert could be that. You sign one big contract, Montgomery and Quero come on as above average players, Sosa figures it out and that group of 6 former prospects turns out to be one good prospect....that's five. The rest you get guys that play good defense. Pair that with a top 5 starting pitching and good relief staff. There's hope.

At the risk of being stoned to death...the horror of JR is overstated. In 2022 White Sox had a $200 mill payroll. I think he (And we) were all sort of blinded at how bad the organization structure was in 2022 because they had some real quality high-cost veterans, and a core of very exciting young players. When the veterans got old and the core of youngsters fell apart there was nothing backing it up. JR wants to win. He was over loyal to his baseball people KW, TLR and RH and in retrospect those guys had built up an organizational rot that seemed to have spread everywhere. JR is embarrassed by the team. Whatever Getz said in his interview, it seems like they get it...JR backed off as Getz has fired everyone in the organization. Bannister, Fuller and Venable seem like really good hires. Pouring money into analytics seems overdo...but they are doing it. Minors seem way better than they've been. Payroll has been cleared of deadwood. Listening to Future Sox podcasts I feel excited about the last three drafts. There is no defense of 2024 but I feel like they've been working on the fix for two years now and we aren't doomed to a lifetime of awful.

It's easy to be a broken fan after the last two years and I think Sox fans tend to lean pessimistic to begin with. Still this idea that we are lost in the wilderness for thirty years is crazy. Didn't KC go from 106 loses to the playoffs LAST year? Did they do it with a lineup of stars? No it was Bobby WItt and pitching (and a lot of games against the Sox). So what is the case for White Sox optimism? Well I'll start with the two "trade" pieces. Crochet never pitched 60 innings in a season in his life and then last year pitched 150 innings and was magnificent. 2.69 FIP, 13 strikeouts per inning, 6.5 Strikeouts per walk? And he's 25. Chris Sale just had a Cy Young season at 35. Why can't we sign this guy for 10 years? He has very few innings on his arm and is a true ace. Build with him. And Roberts? He is only ONE year removed from a 5.5 WAR, 38 homer, 130 OPS+ season and many of us thought he had room to grow. He was terrible this year but players have career bad years as well as career good years. He's only 27 next year. Let's say he stays healthy next year (he played 145 games just one year ago) and is reinvigorated by new manager. He hits 45 homers with gold glove defense. Now look at the payroll. As I have frequently fought on this site...Sox have been in top 5 payroll when the team is good. 2025 top 5 payroll is $150 million and Sox are at $38. They have a ton of money they can spend. How about making a statement with someone like Pete Alonzo. As for the lack of talent...Hagen Smith, Noah Shultz and Grant Taylor all have ace stuff. Drew Thorpe seems like the perfect complement to those guys. OK that's not your starting rotation for 2024...but it's not ridiculous to think that at the All Star game your rotation could be Crochet, Smith, Shultz and Thorpe. The bullpen was historically bad, but you have more than half of the top 30 prospects as pitchers. Plus about half a dozen 25 year olds that were rookies last year. Seems you could cobble together a solid pen from that group. But zero hitters? Colson Montgomery had a bad season...but last 22 games he put up a .900 in AAA while 4 years younger than league average. At AFL he put up over 1.100 OPS. He's a lefty shortstop, that takes walks and hits for power. Quero hit .820 OPS at AA Birmingham at 21! He was even better at AAA Charlotte. How about up the middle you have Quero, Montgomery and Roberts??? The rest is a bit rag-tag...but again KC was ragtag outside of about two guys. Sosa had a .900 OPS the last month of the season and has a history of taking time to figure out a league and then burning it up. Learning curves aren't linear and you have a collection of guys that once looked like they would be good...Vaughn, Ramos, Colas, Vargas, Deloach, Baldwin. At some point we HAVE to get positive prospect luck. If one of those breaks out...and you make a signing like Pete Alonzo, Roberts has a career year, Montgomery and Quero come up and hold their own...now you have a competitive team. I like the new manager. I like the management stuff Getz has been doing (not player acquisition although I do like the Smith draft). I hate the idea of trading an existing Ace for hot prospects who often fail. And trading your CF at his lowest value. I don't think the future is hopeless. We just need things to break right and it seems the baseball gods owe us.

So what we dreamed Madrigal was going to be? How is Jordan Sprinkle blocking him at high A?

Why does Nishida not get any attention? .415 OBP, 34 stolen bases in half a season? Left handed hitter. 2023 draft pick...yet I don't see him on White Sox top 30 prospects. Rarely mentioned here. Is his age his fatal flaw?

Come on White Sox. He just turned 25 last week. Randy Johnson pitched to 45. Kershaw still pitching at 35. Strong tall lefties with good fundamentals can do this for a long time. Why couldn't he be the mainstay of our rotation for ten years? Don't say money. JR has been in top ten payrolls many times including two years ago. Just imagine that rotation...playoff series with Crochett blowing people away, Thorpe driving them crazy Buehrlesque and Shultz blowing people away. Get off the rebuild drug.

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9). They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte. Grant Taylor might be the best of them all. Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters? Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez. Solid Catchers. If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves? Dominant pitching and defense. The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.

See it's this kind of brilliant analysis that I come here for...the Houston Astros the 10 years after they lost the WS to the White Sox lost an average of 95 games. HORRIBLE organization....everyone there is an idiot. There is no hope for the future. I am stupid. I think it is fitting that the last words I hear on Sox Talk as I cancel my account is "Get Fucked" by the Global Moderator.

What do you mean we put "no effort into adding players"? We are still drafting players and making interesting international signings. And the Astros have "passed us by"???? The same Astros we've been chasing? The Phillies were a year ahead of us in the rebuild and started fire hosing money at free agents in 2019 and went....4th at 500, 3rd under .500, 2nd at .500, 3rd at 12 games up (and WS) and are under .500 again. Imagine the hatred on Phillies Talk about their wasted time. And the Orioles and Rangers have had a nice 49 games. The enormous patience and respect Soxtalk has for every other organization and the hatred of all things White Sox is so weird and exhausting.

This is another credo of Soxtalk...negativity on our own prospects. The idea that you KNEW Lenyn Sosa was going to be a bust based on history of the Sox busting at these positions is crazy. He put up a .900 OPS in Birmingham while 2 years younger than league average in half a season at that pitchers park, then he put up an .820 OPS in Charlotte in half a season at 4 years younger than average. You know which other middle infielder also put up a combined .880 OPS in AA/AAA spit at 22 and flailed in a few at bats in the majors? Marcus Semien. And we traded him away a year later for a bag of magic beans because "we know our middle infield prospects are never good" and then he's averaged a 4 WAR for the next 9 years. Sox should just bring Sosa up and play him at 2b and have everyone shut up.