michelangelosmonkey

I think the fundamental problem we all have is impatience. Almost nobody burns up the league at 25. Players come up and they have to adjust. So we see glimpses of Robert for thirty games and we say "he's going to be one of the greatest ever" and then he goes in a slump and we say he is garbage. The reality is baseball players and pitchers peak at 30 (J.C. Bradbury and published in Journal of Sports Sciences) or 28 (Mitchel Lichtman of Hardball Times). The core of our team are young guys who have all flashed greatness. Look at the list of players that have not even hit peak from the most conservative estimate. Player Age Garrett Crochet 23 Andrew Vaughn 24 Luis Robert 24 Eloy Jiménez 25 Gavin Sheets 26 Jake Burger 26 Michael Kopech 26 Dylan Cease 26 Yoan Moncada 27 Lucas Giolito 27 Vaughn, Robert and Jimenez are babies. Cease and Kopech are just learning to be great. To give up on those five because of a few injuries is madness. Look at Byron Buxton. Hurt at 24. Hurt at 25. Covid season at 26 and now the last two years he's one of the best player in baseball. Moncado has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 30 games? Gio has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 5 starts? So we have rising stars coupled with a couple of players at their peak (Anderson, Bummer, Reylo) or past their peak (Lynn, Abreu, Grandal, Hendricks) and suddenly a very exciting crop of minor leaguers. The Sox have had an incredibly bad run of luck with injuries this year...and cold starts and yes I suspect the team is down and frustrated. But I still think they are going to get healthy and hot. And if not this season?? Look at that Padres last season...sometimes you have all the parts but it takes some hard times before you learn how this all fits together.

But this isn't even analytics. Everyone knew that some pitchers would be effected. Everyone. If you asked which Sox pitcher would likely be damaged by this...someone should have suggested...how about that guy that won his Cy Young while pitching with the Astro-cheaters? The guy with marginal stuff but with unbelievable command of it. Katz should have said...we need to watch DK closely. Then immediately he was terrible and he for months he was terrible...they KNEW this...they didn't pitch him in the playoffs. This spring he was terrible. The first few starts he was terrible. It's about to be June and he's still marching out there every fifth start. So stupid.

I try to be positive and supportive of management but this stuff drives me crazy. MLB announced starting June 21st, 2021 that the umpires would be checking pitchers for doctoring baseball substances. DK had pitched 26 games with the White Sox before June 21, 2021 and had an ERA of 3.01 (not just great in 2020...his ERA on June 15th 2021, the start before the check, was 3.78). The 24 starts since then (I thew out the suspended game on June 26 2021 as it was half in and half out) his ERA is 7.18. Come on...is this not obvious to everyone? How can the White Sox not see this?? It's not like it's a small sample size or explained by a slump or injury. DK is a Cy Young candidate when he's cheating and he's the worst pitcher in baseball when he's not and it's very frustrating to watch the White Sox come to any other conclusion. Yes he shut out the Yankees for 15 outs a few weeks ago (his ERA is 7.54 without that start) but it's not like he was even good then...7 baserunners in 5 innings. Honestly...resign Rodon, bullpen game, minor leaguer spot starts, VV...almost any other scenario comes up better than DK and yet every fifth game here he comes again. It drags me over to the "organizational stupidity" majority side here on Soxtalk.

Eloy hit 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23. He hit .296 at 23. He was hurt last year. Why would you hate him?

A superstar like Marcus Semien?? Sox ties, perfect positional fit, sure he's 32 and coming off a career year...but Sox could have had him for $175 million and all of Soxtalk would have had a glorious winter, and ten games in, when he's hitting .128 with almost no power or walks...it would be the apocalypse on Soxtalk. We already have a bunch of superstars (many also struggling) so they spent the money on depth. Let's see how it plays out before we call them stupid.

Sorry I misunderstood your intent. I really don't think Kuechel hitting his 160 inning vesting is a concern with the Sox bullpen...even if he is REALLY good I think the Sox keep him as a 5 inning pitcher and with 30 starts he doesn't make the 160 inning mark. But let's be fanciful...and he regains his control and he is very good this year...wouldn't there be a scenario at 140 innings where they restructure his contract and turn it into a three year $30 million thing? Mark Buehrle as a fifth starter for the next three years would be a nice option.

Honestly I don't THINK Dallas is going to come back...and yes the day after the Spider Tack ban took place his ERA was 3.78 and the rest of the season it was 7. He also came from Houston which has a history of bending the rules for results. Still Katz and Dallas are smart and must be working on a plan to get that control back. I just thought the thread was funny with the unstoppable Robbie Ray against the pathetic Dallas Keuchel yet the two have pitched in the majors for the last 9 years and Dallas has been better than Robbie 8 of those years.

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario. As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario? Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR. He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago. What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4. Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35. Do you shut him down? I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4. I'm rooting for the bounce back.

I think you stated this very well. I've been trying to make the argument poorly...but this is potentially the best "worst farm team". I've followed a lot of bad Sox farm systems and I just don't feel like this one was that bad. I think their top 30...top fifteen for sure...is filled with a lot of very high potential guys that because of a series of bizarre circumstances (COVID, Cuba tax issues, injuries) didn't show the upside . I also feel like the point of the farm system is not to produce a bunch of Leury Garcia's and Matt Fosters....but to produce the occasional Tim Anderson/Aaron Bummers. I would rather add a couple of potential stars each year than a dozen filler pieces. But if you have a dozen filler pieces the system-ranking guys loves you because your farm teams win a lot of games and you have lots of "major league ready" parts. Still I completely agree that they need to add MORE. It's so discouraging as a fan to look at the thin soup of Charlotte roster...even the Birmingham roster...there's nothing wrong with having a couple of stars AND a bunch of filler pieces. Leury Garcia has value...it's just not sexy. The biggest problem with the "worst farm system" narrative is that I think the White Sox had a bad history of drafting and international scouting that they have fixed but it is taking time to work through the system and we should see the results this year (and would have earlier except for COVID).

What happens if we DFA him and he passes through wavers and we resign him. Then he starts smoking the ball in Charlotte...can another team then claim him to their MLB roster...or is he ours for the year?

So they have money to spend. As for the absolutes? I never said they are ABSOLUTELY bringing Sale back as you said they absolutely won't. It was a thought experiment in response to "who might they bring in". Then I laid out the fact that Boston pays half his salary. It doesn't seem crazy. In spite of all the Soxtalk hate...by most accounts Kenny and Jerry are kind and loyal to their employees. I don't think Sale hated his time here and if he could come back and win a WS?

While it is easy to follow the national "experts" I think this is loudly wrong. Cespedes was a top 10 international signing, Colas top 3 in the last two years. Montgomery was a first round pick, Kath was a second round overslot pick, Kelley was 2nd round overslot pick that many had with first round grade. Vera was the top international prospect in the 20-21 international class. Dahlquist and Thompson were 2nd and 3rd round overslot guys. The last three years the White Sox have thrown the brunt of their scouting and draft money at high end YOUNG prospects and Cubans. And then Coivd shit on their plans. They had all these high school kids and Cuban transfers that basically sat in limbo for 1.5 years because of COVID which hurt development. This is a big year for White Sox farm system because if two of that list don't make top 100...well then I'll agree their plan was garbage and their farm system is garbage...but to call it garbage now seems silly to me.

I've written about this alot...two years ago I predicted we would be a top five payroll and was laughed at. JR spends money when the team is good. Picking up Sale contract the next few years is just replacing the money that we would be spending on Keuchel the last couple of years. The question is does Sale age like Verlander or like Shields. This broken rib thing is a bit worrisome especially after the TJS. He's 33, a year younger than Kershaw...Kershaw just signed basically a one year contract for $20m...so you'd demand a fair bit of money back from the Bosox. But paying half and sending a 20th ranked system prospect back? I wouldn't mind that risk.

Chris Sale at the trade deadline? I think Boston is going to regress this year, will be far behind Yankees, Rays and Jays by the all star game. Sale will be out for two months with broken rib but he did pitch really well second half of last year. Boston still owes him $100 million and it probably won't cost a lot in prospects if you take on most of his contract (3 more years at avg of $25mil). He's a dominant lefty and probably has some fond memories of living in Chicago and Soxtalk. Gotta say that playoff starting rotation of Gio-Lynn-Cease-Kopech and Sale would be fun.

VV struck out Madrigal yesterday...basically Zeus defeating Cronus.

What exactly is the difference between VV today and Rodon one year ago today??

I would have liked them to sign Rodon, but so many takes saying that this years team is worse than last years team and one of the arguments is losing Rodon. One year ago today Rodon was a failed prospect/free agent pitcher we signed for nothing who had huge upside, but a terrible track record and serious injury history. He put together 20 great starts and now he's irreplaceable??? Why can't Katz unlock the cheat code for VV or Reylo like he did with Rodon? It's probably hoping for too much but the internal growth on all the hitters suggests we could score 5.5 runs a game. It's going to be a fun year.

Bartolo Colon says hi. He only made it to two all-star games after turning forty. Sabathia barely averaged 29 starts, 12 wins, and a 3.8 ERA for the three years after 34. Fat guys just don't last.

You mean the 79-83 Padres? The team with top 5 payroll full of old guys and bad contracts? The team that has won zero play off games since giving $300 million to Machado? The team that gave another $300 million contract to a guy constantly hurt? Yes every move the Padres make is one that Soxtalk wanted the Sox to do. Hmm.

Mike Schmidt came up at same age as Vaughn, same number of at bats, lower first season OPS and he couldn't hit righties at all. The Phillies were not stupid enough to trade him for some 30 year old 5th starter. He went on to have a pretty good career and destroyed right handed pitchers the rest of the way. Maybe Vaughn could get better too. A .900 OPS hitter cost controlled for next five or six years that can play several positions might have some value. Although really, with our two year window, why bother being patient.

Dunning was also cheap and controllable. I think Dane Dunning will figure it out too. I just don't think he's going to be a star and we traded him for a player that is one. I'm not sure how Sheets fits in long term...yes he's a lefty but Vaughn is your long term 1B guy, Eloy long term DH and Colas your long term lefty bat. I don't mind him sticking with him as lefty off the bench but if you can use him to get a really solid left handed starter...I'm ok with that.

Plus they are all born within 12 months of each other...Robert being the old man of the group at 24. They won't even be ENTERING their prime for three years...a point where half Soxtalk thinks our window will be over.

There is this suggestion that Cespedes was TERRIBLE last year. He put up an .800+ OPS, stole 18 bases in half a season and has a cannon of an arm (60 grade). He had missed nearly two years of playing baseball and It was his first time in the US and we had this COVID craziness going on and he did pretty darn good. OK, he was terrible in the AFL..but that was a dozen and a half games. He strikes out way too often...but pedigree and history suggests he could be coming soon. And Colas?? Man read some of the scouting stuff from Getz and Barkett "He’s got some explosive power, some big-time, upper-deck, light-tower power. He can do it to all fields". He's our lefty. Even Keith Law said nice things about him. OK, prospects flame out but these guys are about extending the window. Imagine this outfield with Robert, Cespedes and Colas each plus defenders, each with cannons, each hitting 30 home runs. Dream about your Comforto's and his past with the Mets...this is what I like to dream of.

Pete I think you are missing the point of the White Sox already addressing the long term outfield position...they invested a lot of international money on Cespedes and Colas...they are Cuban which fits into the clubhouse thing...each has huge upside and they are 24 and 23. The Sox needed a RF solution for ONE year while these two develop. Why tie up money and positional blocking for 5 years on an equally unproven international player? The Cubs starting in 2023 will be paying Suzuki nearly $20 million a year for four years. To extend the window you need to save money on positions...so 2023 Cespedes playing RF at $0 and 2024 Colas playing LF at $0 allows extensions to Gio and TA without going into the tax. It would be nice to have Dodger/Yankee budgets but we don't and I like the way RH is playing this chess match. Pollok is a great short term fit. This rationale is also exactly the reason I think they didn't want Conforto for five years.

Is Sheets the Dane Dunning of position players? Succeeded with SSS in favorable situations. No amazing tools...but young and promising. Doesn't really fit in the long term picture (Colas is the LH bat at a position we need). When/if he gets traded Soxtalk will lose their minds.