almagest

I've been a software developer, manager and senior leader working in ops, app dev, data and ML for over 20 years. While you make good points about how ML works and what pitfalls to avoid, you absolutely talk out of your ass a good chunk of the time and it's hilarious to watch you vent hot air all around here. Still waiting on those sources.

I don't see Sosa as more than a second division regular or bench player on a good team because of his chase rate. He's the worst regular in baseball at swinging outside the zone. That'll limit his ceiling to probably about what he is right now. That is still light years ahead of what we've had at second for a while, though. Put him at second until someone better moves up through the system.

I’m not engaging in petty insults. Have a good night.

Yeah, it is, unless you can explain how you linking "Bannister being here almost two years" with "a bunch of pitching injuries" is not casting the blame at his feet.

Sudden or not, you're still saying Bannister deserves the blame.

No, you said "Brian Bannister was hired is September of 2023. That is plenty of time." in reply to "Did everyone all of a sudden make changes that caused a ton of injuries? Maybe, but I doubt it would take effect that quickly". It's pretty clear what you were insinuating.

Cease is exactly the kind of pitcher that has a lot of his flaws hidden by that "stability". He labors through innings, struggling with command and putting people on base. BBRef gives example scenarios in their WAR description that sound a lot like Dylan Cease command struggle innings. There's a reason the Sox didn't get the kind of package we all wanted for him, and there's a reason rumors were swirling that San Diego was thinking about trading him. You also haven't answered where you're getting those pitching rankings from.

There's a BIG difference between saying that a pitcher with better stuff needs less stuff enhancement or guys on the margins will go after any advantage they can get, and saying that the sole reason why a bunch of pitchers got hurt this year is due to Brian Bannister being hired in late 2023.

Not in bWAR, which is a more complete stat for pitchers because it doesn't rely so heavily on FIP. By bWAR he's had an ace year, a #2 year, a #2/#3 year, a #4/#5 year, and this year is on target for another 4/5 finish.

For long term deals sure. I don't know why the Dodgers would go for long deals if they don't prioritize pitcher health.

I agree with this, but I think kids are being brought into pro ball already focused on stuff maximization. It's going to be hard to rebuild their pitching mechanics. I also wonder how pitchers are going to feel about the Dodgers long term. Guys on the margins probably want any shot they can get so they'll gladly trade short term success for longer term injury, but good pitchers won't want to be there because it will potentially limit their careers.

It's your argument. Don't get mad at me because choosing a quarter of a century for your argument was a poor choice. Also, where are you getting these rankings from?

To do what, exactly? You're jumping to some huge conclusions here.

Side note, I did not realize how good Ketel Marte has been the last three years. 3.1 bWAR this year already. 4.9 and 6.8 in 2023 and 2024.

Bring up Baldwin and release Capra. Even if Baldwin stinks he'll be better than Capra.

Yes. Did everyone all of a sudden make changes that caused a ton of injuries? Maybe, but I doubt it would take effect that quickly, and we have no evidence to indicate that these kinds of changes were even made with these pitchers. If we see a bunch more talent go down in the next year or so, then there should be some tough questions to answer.

You should probably look up what gaslighting means, because "applying the same argument you're making to a related concept to illustrate how it's wrong" is not what gaslighting is. If it makes you uncomfortable to admit that the White Sox have been good at developing hitting by the same criteria you applied to pitching, then you should probably consider that it's not worthwhile to compare what happened 11-25 years ago to what is happening with the player development staff they have today.

When did I ever claim the Sox made amazing, positive changes? I'm in here arguing the opposite - their pitching development has taken a step back from their height from 2000-2012 or so, and I'm hopeful Bannister is bringing some of that back

Everyone I named was as well, except for Valentin. Looks like the Sox have been pretty good at identifying and developing hitting talent.

You're assuming the injuries we've seen were due to things the Sox were telling them, though. You can't make that assumption. We've heard nothing about the Sox coaching Schultz or Smith to gain velocity or make pitch shape adjustments that would lead to additional arm stress. It's also sensible to not try to make a guy who already has top tier stuff ever so slightly better. That's diminishing returns. You help them with consistency and with being able to endure a full season of pitching load.

Sosa is fine for where they're at as a team. I don't need to see any more Rojas or Capra.

They might. If a borderline guy has a mediocre fastball (which is like <95 now), but the Sox have some changes that could result in higher velocity, why wouldn't they suggest them to him? Also, these kinds of guys are going to search out that advice themselves. That's why I brought up the steroid example - any advantage they can find, even if it has bad effects longer term. Someone like Smith or Schultz already has the stuff. They're not gonna mess with that unless there's a reason to.

Those weren't alterations for velocity or improving pitch quality, though. Hagen Smith was for command, and Schultz they're trying to prevent him from relying on his cutter too much.

Then the White Sox must be much better at hitting talent evaluation and development than we give them credit for, because that list is even better than the pitching one you gave. Look who came through the system from the late 90s on - Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko, Aaron Rowand, Joe Crede, Alexei Ramirez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada for 9 WAR over 2 seasons, Eloy before injuries did him in, Marcus Semien, Fernando Tatis Jr They had some stellar trades and FA acquisitions too. They recognized the value Jose Valentin represented (then fucked it up by replacing him with Royce Clayton, though Valentin was basically done after playing for the Sox), they turned Uribe into an incredibly valuable player for a WS run, they resurrected Jim Thome's career after a terrible, injury plagued 2005 in Philly and Jermaine Dye was mediocre in Oakland then put up incredible numbers in 2006 and won World Series MVP in '05. If we're going back this far, then honestly we should be pretty happy with the results we've seen.

I don't know who you're arguing with. We agree. Sale, Glasnow and Kershaw are guys who have enough talent to pitch at less than max effort and still get guys out reliably. I will caveat Kershaw, though. He was an incredibly reliable pitcher (200+ IP for 6 years, then 150+ IP for 4 years) before covid, age, and mileage on his arm caught up with him. I'm saying more marginal guys need every advantage they can get, and that's who is going to continue to go after max effort strategies. They're the ones who will need TJ even if the more talented guys know when to dial it back, just like the only guys getting caught with steroids now are the ones who need them to move up in the minors/have a shot at an MLB roster.