almagest

I'd be ok with both.

I'm onboard with Steiver +, depending on the +. Don't want to mortgage the farm, and if the Sox absorb most/all of that deal it shouldn't cost too much.

How did you infer that I think Robert is prone to slumping due to "a mental thing"? I said absolutely nothing of the sort, nor does anything I said come close to that. I also wouldn't agree it's because he's vulnerable to velocity or lacks plate discipline, because he showed both at times last year. I have no idea WHY he slumped, only that he was hot, then slumped, and our offense suffered a large amount as a result. I'm also trying to project forward trends based on the only data we have. Otherwise you can't predict his performance at all, and I don't see how that's any different or makes anyone feel better about him carrying a large part of the offense next year. If he runs hot and cold next year or otherwise is not the player people are expecting him to be this offense isn't built to absorb that, as we saw last season, and you can't convince me Adam Eaton is the answer to that.

It's the only reference point we have. By your logic there's nothing we can predict with him, as his entire MLB career is also based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year.

Robert has also shown to be vulnerable to extended slumps. I honestly don't know what we'll get from him on offense, and we saw how the team tanked once he stopped hitting.

Operationally it seems like they're trying to strike early and avoid situations like Machado in 2018, which is totally understandable, but it leads me to believe they're close to finishing up. I expect a pivot from Hendriks soon to another closer, and maybe Quintana or a reclamation project. These moves are not going to put them over the rest of the AL unless every rookie or other question mark hits near their best projected outcomes.

I'm in between. I like a lot of what they've done locking a lot of long-term talent up to long-term reasonable deals, I like the shift in drafting strategy and I like the trade returns for the most part. I like the Grandal signing a lot. Keuchel was a good second option to Wheeler. I really don't like the rest of their free agent and core supplementation strategy. I think they should be in on Bauer and Springer and other higher priced free agents because of the financial flexibility they have with their young core, and with the strong revenue position of the team. I don't think they should be looking at rebound candidates or other marginal players because the presumed goal is savings and flexibility, but signing bad players to short team deals is a larger waste of capital overall than a big contract to a premium free agent - it's just not as apparent on initial inspection.

What about how this org operates with free agent signings for the past 5 years leads to your optimism? Also there's a big difference between "I am concerned about how this team operates with free agent signings as they waste their budget on marginal players every year" and "the sky is falling".

I know how they operate, and it's absolutely stupid. I'd much rather pay good players extra for declining years than pay different bad players each season for zero production. Their cost/benefit calculations are completely messed up and it's baffling.

Sounds like there was more to his dismissal from the Sox:

I'd be really surprised if they signed him now.

I'm optimistic but I also am guarded, and I think people are setting themselves up for a big disappointment if they're buying into this team being the class of the AL as it currently stands.

I'm definitely not miserable. I see the Sox being a very good team and it's exciting. What concerns me is they're relying a lot on unproven players (Madrigal, Robert, Collins/Zavala/Mercedes, Kopech, Cease, Steiver, Lopez) and there's a lot of pressure on them to excel, otherwise this is probably a bubble playoff team and it's a year of the window wasted.

They'd rather waste money on nothing if it means they're only on the hook for a year or two, I guess. And they do this almost every year. Which is worse than tying up money for one more year than they want. Absolutely baffling. I sort of get not wanting to bid against themselves in an odd year with severely reduced revenue, but guaranteed someone is gonna step in, beat the Sox offer, and Kenny Williams will be wearing his sunglasses to hide the shock in his eyes again.

If B is what it takes I'm fine with that. If they're not going to prioritize another top tier starter having a lockdown bullpen helps cover for the 4/5 starters not going deep in games.

Or just keep him if he's good enough.

The Sox have done more to upgrade so far, but there's a lot of offseason left with a number of good players left, and the Sox have seemingly taken themselves out of the running for the biggest impact players.

Paying $7 million for 0-1 WAR for multiple players every year is way more of an overpay to me than paying Springer or Bauer 5/125 and having them produce 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 WAR over the contract.

I don't understand shying away from commitments like these when all they do is end up wasting $7 million per reclamation project that doesn't work out. It ended up being weak, but they 100% wanted Rutherford and he was still a top prospect. If this is the worst outcome for Hendriks in 3 years it's still better than reclamation projects that don't work out.

They absolutely need to add. They're still not good enough to consistently make deep postseason runs. Standing pat puts WAY too much pressure on the young pitchers and hitters to be better than last year. That's a recipe for a hot streak/cold streak team, and if they happen to be on a cold streak going into the postseason then we'll see more of what we saw this past season.

Yes. If Eaton puts up an OPS above .750 and plays ok defense I'll be fine with the signing. Considering how bad RF was last year this would be a massive improvement. Springer and/or Bauer should happen if they're serious about actually competing with and being better than the Dodgers, the Rays, the Yankees, etc. This is going to be a good team next year but I still don't think they have enough to get to the World Series or even win the ALCS unless everything goes their way.

I'll be happy with it, if it means they spend on Hendriks, Bauer and/or some other good options at SP, RP, DH. Otherwise they should've just gone after Springer.

Cespedes was good before he got hurt, but the rest are fair points, though all were extremely inconsistent and had warning signs - Springer has basically been the same player every year so he's a much safer bet.

It's like they're stuck in the late 90s-early 00s. You don't see really see deals like Mike Hampton or Barry Zito anymore. Teams know how to judge talent and project how long a player will be good and how they'll decline. The Sox play in a space where the deals fail way more often, and the MLB scouting they do seems pretty bad so they're seldom successful at these low-end signings.

The longer this takes, the less I think he'll sign with the Sox.