Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (The Baconator @ Jan 31, 2010 -> 12:16 AM) My uber-long-shot prediction of the year is that the Rangers find themselves unexpectedly in contention for the West in July. They realize the thing holding them back is pitching, and they are all always ready to spend money if they have the chance to win (see: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Kenny Rodgers, Ivan Rodriguez, Chan Ho Park). Combine this with JJ Putz positioning himself as the consistent pitcher we need, we shop Jenks or Liney to the Rangers so they can contend for the West. I know it's a stretch of a prediction, but I just think with the parity in the West that any team has a chance at it, and given the new ownership in Texas they might be willing to fill the necessary gaps by spending the money for the fans and the franchise. The Rangers have been extremely economical over most of the last decade exactly because of that splurge they went on and how badly it hurt them. The Rangers do not seem to be a team looking to suddenly spend a bunch of money under new ownership. Really, how often do you see this stuff happen in pro sports? The new owners are probably going to want to get a handle on everything before they start spending money like water. And the current economy in baseball also makes big spending a pretty unwise thing to do as it is. Let's say we make no moves all offseason until right now. Look at all the players out there, and how cheaply we could have picked them up. Next year should be more of the same. Most of Texas' money under new ownership should go towards extending their own players. Unless Jenks has just a terrific year, given what guys like Soriano and Valverde got, he's probably a non-tender candidate after the season is over, which means no draft picks if that's the case. The price for Jenks, if he were for sale, probably wouldn't be all that staggering, so why would the Sox look to move him midseason and weaken their pen while trying to win a division? Makes no sense. Linebrink can be had by anyone willing to take on that contract. The Sox do not like to eat salary to move a player and that's why he's not gone yet. If some team (any team) comes along offering to pick up the tab, or at least most of the tab, I have to think Kenny would pull the trigger immediately.

I like those predictions. I'm going to go: AL Central - Sox (division), Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals AL East - Red Sox (division), Yankees (wild card), Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays AL West - Angels (division), Mariners, Rangers, A's NL East - Phillies (division), Mets (wildcard), Braves, Marlins, Nationals NL Central - Cardinals (division), Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Astros, Pirates NL West - D'Backs (division), Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Padres

Brady was a pretty solid player for a few years. He still has a career .277 average and a career .358 OBP in 2318 PA, which is a lot more than can be said about some of the players who have come through here, and for 2 straight seasons he put up batting averages and OBPs of .280/.385 and .306/.372. I doubt Brady was ever anyone's #1 choice or anything, but he was still solid and worth discussing as a realistic, presumably cost-effective option to acquire through trade.

Damon sounds like a pipedream at this point. Downs would be affordable because the Sox could always add prospects to get the Jays to eat salary, but that's something I really wouldn't want to do. I pretty much hate the idea of trading top prospects for relievers, so therefore I expect Kenny to do that now. If the Sox do actually have $4M to spend, the first thing I'd suggest would be looking for a team willing to take on Linebrink at about $2M per over the next two years, meaning we'd have to eat $3M this year and $3.5M in 2011. Then take the $2M savings and offer it to Damon ($6M total in 2010 with an option for 2011). And if the Sox really want to add to the bullpen then they don't need to trade for anyone, they just need to stick Hudson out there and let go of the low risk/high reward Dolsi, Santos, Santeliz, etc. projects this year. That said I really doubt anything like that happens.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:47 AM) They also have Swarzak, Manship and their prize possession who will move fast in Kyle Gibson, who's predicted to be their #1 starter in 2012 or 2013. The Twins were active acquiring talent all summer. With the 22nd overall pick in June, they drafted Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson, a projected top-10 pick choice who was available because he had a stress reaction in his right forearm. Gibson signed at the Aug. 17 deadline for $1.85 million, marking the first time Minnesota took a premier talent who slid and paid him a seven-figure, above-slot bonus. In another first, the Twins paid the highest bonus on the international market in 2009 and the highest for an international player in franchise history when infielder Miguel Sano signed in September for $3.15 million. Minnesota had kicked off the international period by signing German outfielder Max Kepler for $800,000, the largest bonus ever given to a European position player. from baseballamerica.com The Twins are going into an all-new stadium, they're not messing around. Great post. And they're serious about Mauer too. I think they'll keep him. These are the new Twins, and they plan on kicking our asses through the next decade. Hopefully Kenny and Ozzie wake up.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:03 AM) Did I miss us being projected for the same amount of homers as last year? Because it sure sounds like we are going to hit about 100 homers this year. Starters and their career highs in HR: Pierzynski 18 Konerko 41 Beckham 14 Ramirez 21 Teahen 18 Pierre 3 Rios 24 Quentin 36 Bench - career highs, career highs as bench players Kotsay 17, 4 as a bench player Jones 51, 17 Castro 11, 11 Vizquel 14, 1 Nix 12, 12 If all of our starters reach their career highs that is 175. If all of our bench players reach their bench highs that is 45. Total = 220 in that case. If all our players on the 25-man roster reach their career highs that is 280, which would be pretty cool. Now, looking at this more realistically, but still optimistically: Pierzynski 14 Konerko 28 Beckham 20 Ramirez 19 Teahen 16 Pierre 1 Rios 19 Quentin 30 Kotsay 6 Jones 21 Castro 7 Vizquel 1 Nix 7 = 189 Edit: BTW we hit 184 last year, so the above would seem pretty good prediction to me since we didn't exactly get a whole lot better.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 08:31 AM) Fit their ballpark? Their new park is going to be similar to the new Yankee Stadium in RF? They are playing outdoors now and the IF grass is going to deaden the ball more, and in summer it still does get pretty hot up there, so it makes sense for the Twins to continue moving away from the "grinder" types into more of a power + OBP team.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 08:18 AM) While it stings a little bit that Thome went to the Twins, I dont think Thome is going to be the difference between the Sox and Twins this year. He is considered to be a bench player for them, just as he was to be(in our minds)for the Sox, and I am not going to worry about the eventual homerun he hits vs the Sox(mostly because he has already hit a ton of them vs the Sox), because a bench player does not change a season for many teams. Like many people have said, the onus is on Ozzie this time, he asked for this type of team and he got it. he has his speedy leadoff hitter(even if he is in decline) and he has his versatile bench. If Ozzie is as dumb as many people think he is on this site, it will be a fail, and KW will not do this again. If Ozzie is as smart as few people on this site think he is, the Sox will surprise many and compete from day 1. I am of the belief that Ozzie is much smarter than people believe, but I am not going to argue my opinion with anyone, you have your right to yours as I do to mine. Thome alone may not be the difference, but he's going to make the Twins' already superior offense that much better. Agree on Ozzie, but I fear that if this doesn't work (and I don't think it will) Kenny will be tempted to go back in the opposite direction again. We just need some damn balance. That's all.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 08:09 AM) The Twins are turning into the Sox. The Twins are continuing to build teams that fit their ballpark and you could see this coming all the way back to the Young-Garza trade, although that one didn't work out. But what a concept, huh?

If the Twins get Thome and the Sox get Dye then this will be a sad, sad day for Sox fans - and it will put Ozzie and Kenny both on the hotseat (at least with the fans) should this offense suck as it's expected to.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:13 AM) I disagree completely. I understand supply and demand, I also understand that the supply of players who can play DH is extremely larger than the supply of players who can play OF, 1b and DH. In 2008 Kotsay started for Atlanta, 88 games, 345 ab's. Besides for being injured in 2007, Kotsay started every season prior to 2008. So your saying because Kotsay didnt start for Boston, last year, he hasnt been a starter for "years"? Its unlikely Thome would have started for the Red Sox last year, and clearly the White Sox felt Kotsay was > than Thome. So outside of perhaps the Twins, where will Thome be starting? Do people even know who Mark Kotsay is? The guy started every year through 2008. How is that not holding a starting position in MLB? 1. Kotsay was a starter mainly as a CF, and a pretty good one at that. In CF the offensive standards are much lower, and his ability to handle the bat made him well-suited to hitting at the top of the lineup, specifically in the 2 slot. Because of his production + defensive ability + lineup fit, he was able to hold down jobs. Kotsay however isn't a CF anymore. 2. The Sox feel that Kotsay is more versatile than Thome, which is true. I don't think anyone even on their side believes Kotsay is a better hitter than Thome. The Sox feel that their offense is just fine right now, which is crazy, but that's what they think. They don't feel they need extra offense, they feel they need extra versatility. Hence my sig. 3. Thome isn't going to start at DH over Kubel, that's just not a smart thing for the Twins to do given Kubel's upside. current production, and the progression he's made since getting healthy. That's not a knock on Thome. Kotsay wouldn't start over anyone on that entire team despite his versatility, because every position Kotsay plays, there is someone else much better. 4. Kotsay is a very nice bench player, but his best years are behind him and he has never been a power threat, or a walk threat either. Walks + power generally go a lot further than batting average driven by singles, and walks + power is Thome's game. BTW, you can compare Kotsay's terrible production in Boston with Thome's terrible stint in LA. Neither stints are indicative of either player's true ability, and if Kotsay can rebound here given some regular AB's then Thome should be capable of doing the same elsewhere.

The idea of Kotsay DHing at all is dumb. If Kotsay is in the lineup then he should be playing 1B with Konerko DHing, or he should be in RF with Quentin DHing, or in LF with Pierre DHing. It's the same thing with Vizquel, who Ozzie has mentioned as a DH candidate. If Omar is out there then the DH needs to be Alexei, Beckham, or Teahen. Wasting the defensive value of a better defensive player is f***ing pointless.

I've mentioned this before, but I'd like to see the Sox bring in Alfredo Amezaga. He can play 2B, SS, 3B, CF, RF and has speed as a pinch runner. He's a crappy hitter, but he would fill needs as the last guy on the bench and he doesn't strike out as much as Lillibridge does. Voted for Nix though because no matter what we have to have that secondary backup MIF and Lillibridge clearly needs work in Charlotte if he's going to have a big league career as basically another Amezaga.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 10:42 AM) Kotsay may not be "that" good. But I believe that Thome may be "that" bad this year. He is getting older, his bat speed looked like slightly slower last year and I cant imagine it will be any better this year. If Thome is such a valuable player, why is no one else signing him for the bargain price? He just didnt look like he had much left in the tank. Because there's only 14 teams in the AL, he has to DH, he wants to win, and he prefers to stay in the ALC. The Yankees and Red Sox don't need him, neither do the Angels, and the Sox don't even want him. I'm sure he would have been signed long ago had he started the offseason asking for the same meager amount and had he been willing to be a bench player anywhere. You can say the same thing about a lot of players still out there that you said about Thome.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 04:29 AM) There will be players available later on if it doesn't work out. Every single year Williams makes a mid season addition. Does SoxTalk not understand that concept? Further, do they not understand that Williams aims higher than guys off the scrap heap? Do they not understand there will be guys available later that aren't now? But then again, there never has been any accountability over there ... for certain people anyway. I don't want to get on the "hit" list for future attacks, but why not? LOL. Jenks Dye Thornton Contreras Alexei Ramirez Tadahito Iguchi Pods (especially the 2nd time) Griffey, Jr. Alomar Erstad Politte Hersmanson Takatsu Everett MacDougal Aardsma Sisco Quentin Loaiza Thome A. Jones Vizquel Kotsay Damaso Marte J. Nix Ross Gload Arguably, all or most of those players were either pulled off the scrap heap, injured, undervalued or unwanted...isn't the whole point of being an MLB GM to do that? Outside of David Wells and re-signing our own players like Buehrle, Konerko, Dye, AJ, etc., I can't think of very many times we've paid "market value" or above for a player. Ooops, there's always Alex Rios, although by definition he was really on the scrap heap. Or Todd Ritchie, more "scrap heap" material who had a couple of non-pressure/pedestrian NL Central seasons and morphed into a 3rd or 4th starter in our rotation magically. Nick Swisher is the only other example where we paid "top dollar" to acquire a player from another organization. Jake Peavy was "stolen" from the Padres because of finances, but we got him at a huge discount. You just hijacked this thread with an insightful post! Shame on you, Caulfield! But seriously, great post, and the lines you quoted are great too. Jim speaks about Soxtalk the way I speak about things like the government and religion. I like to use "they" a lot, and I put everyone under the same umbrella, and then I s*** all over it, finding myself enraged and completely losing sight of everything that really matters in the process. That's why I don't talk about this stuff often, and probably why this Jim guy shouldn't worry about Soxtalk. But he does and it's funny.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 10:08 AM) Thunderbolt, Pray tell how the stats after July of last year showed that Thome was a better hitter than Kotsay? Thome August: .238 .298 .500 .798 Kotsay August: .333 .389 .467 .856 Kotsay September: .324 .385 .493 .878 Im not even including Thome's September because it was so horrific based on sporadic performance. But please given this set of data, give me an argument for how Thome was better? Kotsay isn't anywhere near that good though, and if he was, he wouldn't have signed for $1.5M and if he did, there would be no argument over his playing time. I do agree with one point that has been made, which is that Kotsay is a better bet to perform well off the bench, but the f***ed up part about it is that in Ozzie's mind the better bench player (Kotsay) should be playing regularly while the weaker bench player but better starter (Thome) should be riding the pine.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 09:12 AM) The last time I saw a Chicago team make a decision that I felt was this obviously stupid was the decision by the Cubs to sign Bradley. I dunno, this one I think is more along the lines of starting DeWayne Wise in CF last year. Kenny, to his credit, has never, ever, ever, ever done anything in his career as stupid as the Bradley signing. On Kenny's dumbest day he's still about 10X smarter than any version of Jim Hendry you'll ever see. s***, at least we traded Ely and Link for 2 years of Pierre and lots of cash, and we plan on playing him in LF. Plus Pierre is coming off a .308/.365/.392 year. And as dumb as that was, when Hendry did the same, he gave up Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto, and Sergio Mitre, got 1 year of Pierre instead of 2, received no cash, and then played him in CF for 162 games. Pierre's line the previous year had been .276/.326/.354.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 01:13 AM) Mark Teahen is a complementary, bench player on most playoff teams. Maybe he could start for the Twins, but there aren't many upper division teams that would be giving him the starting job without any competition in Spring Training. Same thing with Juan Pierre, how many teams that are legit playoff contenders would go with him as their leadoff hitter? Even if he was playing for those teams, it would be as the 8th (NL) or 9th place hitter. As mentioned before, Jones and Kotsay wouldn't be part of a DH platoon for all but the 3-5 worst teams in the majors either...not even taking into consideration our home ballpark. Yes, the Rangers have a launching pad, but they also (have) had a stronger overall offense and there wasn't as much pressure on Jones to perform as there will be in Chicago in April and May. Then you have the Rios enigma...I'm really curious how many other GM's would have taken on that reclamation project at those numbers? Anyone besides KW? We could have put Rick Ankiel out in CF for 1/5th of the cost on a one-year contract, signed Vladimir Guerrero/N. Johnson/Matsui/Damon as our DH and had money left over to solidify the bullpen in the form of someone comparable to Dotel but with more of a history than Pena. Ankiel/Damon/Dotel (etc.) or Alex Rios??? That questionable decision is probably the biggest single factor preventing us from spending money right now on a legit DH. forcing us to do things on the cheap again (see Wise/Anderson/Owens 2009). There's one other factor here, too. Mitchell and Jordan Danks BOTH profile as better CFers than corner outfielders, the presence of Alex Rios in CF theoretically blocks both of those guys. This is a good post, but I disagree with your view of the Rios acquisition as I think this one is going to turn out brilliantly for Kenny. The Peavy and Rios deals, as well as the Putz deal and the Dolsi and De Aza claims are traditional Kenny Williams-style moves, where a very talented young or relatively young player with upside is acquired for either nothing or way below fair value. Even the Jones deal is a typical KW-type move as Jones IIRC is still just 32, not waaay up there, and is on a very low base that is easy to eat if you have to cut him. The scary moves IMO are these other ones, especially the Pierre deal which could turn out really bad. The Teahen extension is risky as well, but at least he's a decent bet for league average play all around. And what makes the Kotsay and Vizquel deals so scary isn't necessarily the amount of money they will make, it's the amount of money that could have been spent elsewhere on a starter, and the fact that these guys will combine to get a starter's number of AB. Not good. I'm *hoping* that the moves in the first paragraph are Kenny's moves and the ones below are Ozzie's moves, so that if s*** hits the fan with the offense this year, Kenny can go back to being a great GM again without missing a beat. I'm guessing though that they're all Kenny's moves, including the Pierre one, because Kenny genuinely believes Ozzie's bulls***.

"Note to CryptIL at SoxTalk: Come on over, I'm here. Not hiding behind my computer like many I have crossed paths with." This guy sounds dangerous.

QUOTE (kev211 @ Jan 25, 2010 -> 11:38 PM) I disapprove of 23 and 25 being given away so quickly really nothing you can do though. I also think Hudson downgraded going from 54-41. Agree, 54 was a better number for a pitcher IMO.

I guess I just want to know how long Kenny is going to sit there playing second fiddle. When is he going to take the reins? I hope to God he doesn't wait until June.

Okay, so I was reading the Thome thread and came across those Jim posts in there. Check this out, http://ow.ly/1nqapA this dude is dogging Soxtalk like in every post and challenging people. He also seems to have a pretty big issue with fathom, like stalker kind of issues. WTF did you do, fathom? So anyway, I think we need some Soxtalk internet warriors to launch a counter attack to defend the honor of Soxtalk. Who's interested?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 24, 2010 -> 01:03 PM) I don't think some of you realize that if we DON'T get Thome (or trade for someone), our DH spot is going to be MARK KOTSAY and ANDRUW JONES. I'll rephrase: OMAR VIZQUEL WILL SEE TIME AS OUR DH I wouldn't put it past Ozzie, but I think the idea is that Vizquel would play the field with the guy he's replacing acting as the DH for a day to get a rest. And although it's still pretty bad to have a guy like Alexei DHing, the worst part is figuring on Vizquel getting 350+AB during the season, maybe even 400+. That's frightening.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 24, 2010 -> 01:21 PM) Safe to say we tried to get Jenks on the ultra cheap for the next few years? Based on his declining performance I can't think we were trying to do anything but that.. Based on what Soriano and Valverde got, "ultra cheap" may have been actually fair market value, if not slightly above that. Whatever the Sox offer was, you have to wonder if Bobby is regretting passing on it right now. My main guess would be the Sox made a multi-year offer just to get around the 2011 arbitration situation where we may be forced to non-tender him.

^Dude, people *want* Thome to only care about 2 things, walks and home runs. I agree he can be frustrating to watch, but beggars can't be choosers. We sat and watched Matsui and Johnson get taken off the market on cheap 1-year deals while we were spending money on other areas, and now this is the situation we're left with.