chw42

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 10, 2011 -> 04:57 PM) (this will be a little rough and perhaps illogical in some spots, so bear with me) No, but the side that this is missing is the production of Morel. James projects Morel as a .291/.327/.448 hitter, Marcel at .261/.325/.422. For argument's sake, I'll meet them in the middle, though I won't expect Morel to put up that kind of line (I expect him to hit less than James' projection and to also draw fewer walks, so basically I think the OBP is actually right on). So we'll say a line of .270/.325/.425. Brennan Boesch put up a .256/.320/.416 line for the Tigers this past year and that was worth 0.4, so I think assuming a 0.5 batting rating is fair. By all accounts, Morel is a good fielder. For this exercise, I'm going to assume that he has some adjustment this year and that his defense is only average, so I am going to assume a 0 UZR. It could realistically be much better than that. I will also assuming slightly smaller positional and replacement figures due to the presence of Vizquel. For simplicity's sake, we'll say 2 and 18 respectively. Overall, that leaves him at about 25 RAR, so worth about 2.5 WAR. Perhaps that is high, perhaps low, but I personally think that's a pretty safe number, which leaves Morel and Young as pretty equal players, so it will be worth the same $11.1 mill. Then, assuming slight progress over the next 3 years, and still assuming the 6% inflation, we are left with something along the lines of 2011 - 2.5 WAR ($11.1) 2012 - 2.9 WAR ($13.7) 2013 - 3.5 WAR ($17.5) all the while Morel is making the virtual league minimum, though I think he will end up being Super-2 eligible, so probably a grand total of about $2 mill. Still, that is $40 million in surplus value. I'm quite sure that it won't play out exactly like this, but even if Morel gives half the production, you are still looking at huge surplus value from him. On top of that, it's not figuring what production you will get from Teahen too. There will be some on here who are not opposed to moving Teahen because he's the scapegoat, but I do think he can be a good player off the bench for the Sox and worth anywhere from 0.5-1 WAR, especially if he is utilized properly (never, never, never playing 3B and playing only against RHP). If the Sox lose Teahen, they are stuck with De Aza, Lillibridge, Milledge, Gartrell, or Danks, and to me, those are not appealing options. It just doesn't make sense to trade for Michael Young. I know it doesn't make sense for the Sox to go trade for Young. We have no room for him, especially if Morel turns out to be as good as I think he will be on both sides of the ball. But there's always the aspect of Young being more of a sure thing, even if he's overpaid. I was just pointing out that if this trade were to happen (for the Sox or any team) and the team receiving Young dumps a bad player and also gets some salary relief in return, then I'd say it's a fair deal.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 10, 2011 -> 12:37 PM) No. Odds are very good that Michael Young is a bad player at the end of his contract, which ends in 2013, while the Sox could have Brent Morel at about $750k or so (or Beckham there with Escobar at 2B, or Viciedo there, or Eric Chavez there...all are cheaper). Meanwhile, the Sox owe Teahen approximately $10 million total over the next two years, but if he has a semi-good year this year, it's very possible that the Sox will be able to get out of $2-3 million of that contract after this season in a similar trade to the Linebrink deal. Meanwhile, the Sox would have had Young for another year beyond that. Trading for Young would be trading just to trade. The Sox need to stay very, very, very far away. If we go by normal regression for those over the age of 34 (which is an average of 0.7 WAR per season) and take next year's projections as his true talent level then... Young's 2011 projections: Marcel: 618 PA .335 wOBA Bill James: 677 PA .344 wOBA RotoChamp: 667 PA .352 wOBA CAIRO: 680 PA .336 wOBA FanGraphs Fans: 655 PA .341 wOBA Aggregate: 659 PA .342 wOBA Fan Projections have him at -5.1 for defense, CAIRO has him at -9. Let's meet somewhere in between and say -7. Young projects out this way for 2011 if he were to play at U.S. Cellular Field, assuming league average wOBA of .323 and 4.45 runs per game. Batting: 6.7 Fielding: -7 Replacement: 22 Positional: 2.3 RAR: 23.9 WAR: 2.5 Value: $11.1MM @ $4.5MM per win. Assuming .7 WAR regression each season and 6% inflation of win value. 34 - 2.5 WAR ($11.1) 35 - 1.8 WAR ($8.6) 36 - 1.1 WAR ($6.7) Total - 5.4 WAR ($26.4) Young's being paid $48 million during that span of time, so there's a $21.6 million deficit. If you dump Teahen's contract of $10 million, that deficit is down to $11.6 million. Much more manageable. Plus, if you were to somehow get money back, that'd make it even better. You'd also have to consider an overpaid player producing is much, much, more valuable than an overpaid player giving you replacement level production (like Teahen). Not saying that the Sox should go out and make this deal, but I don't think it would be a horrible Vernon Wells-like deal if a team were to pull it off.

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 01:59 AM) It's absolutely retarded, which is why its funny. Darren Sharper hold mah diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiick. The original is still the best.

Williams turned the ball over twice in about 30 seconds and fouls Rose. Bulls in good shape to possibly win this one. Oop, make that three turnovers in a minute. That's game.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Feb 9, 2011 -> 12:49 PM) Have they seen boston's line up? I ain't scared, but damn... they look like they can score on anybody. 2011 PECOTA has the Rays and Yankees at 98 and 100 wins. They have Boston at 88. I don't know what they're smoking over there at BP. The Sox are at 89 wins.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Feb 9, 2011 -> 12:26 PM) PECOTA already projects the White Sox to have the best offense in baseball... no sense in adding Young to hurt our defense. Really?!?!?!

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 04:20 PM) Well my goal is to find a community average, with a +5% above and below deviation to find the range. You can do averages with the range method. You just need enough data points.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 11:32 AM) Why would them filling out 5 mean they are willing to fill out 10? That's twice as much, and even I don't want to fill out almost 300 spots. 300 and 150 are quite different. "And if people have an average in mind, of course they are going to dick with AB and H to get it where they want to, that's kind of the point. " I don't agree. I think a lot of people will say "I think Beckham will hit .290 next year", but then they would have to sit there and tink with hits and AB until they get a number that comes out to .290, and then then they do the 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR, they need to have it equal the hits they put in, ect. Also, I don't see how HBP or SF are anything that anyone can guess with any sort of accuracy. Sure, you can assume Quentin will lead the team, and Pierre might be up there too, but those stats are too much dependent on the pitcher's inaccuracy, and aren't really numbers anyone is familiar with. Could you tell me who led the league in HBP last year or SF and with how many? Probably not. But you are much more likely to know who led the league in AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and maybe OBP. You can have people guess in ranges. That's what most projection polls do. They don't input exact numbers. Go look at how FanGraphs does it.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 01:49 AM) If people are going to fill in 5 slots for 30 players, they are going to be willing to put in 10. And if people have an average in mind, of course they are going to dick with AB and H to get it where they want to, that's kind of the point. It's pretty simple to do something like that. And for pitchers, I would actually reverse it and allow for IP and ERA and then figure out the ER from there. For hitters - AB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K, R, RBI, HBP, SF For pitchers - G, GS, IP, ERA, BB, H, K, HR, and SV too, though I think that will be pretty split between Sale and Thornton For accuracy's sake, this seems to be the much better route. PAs would be better IMO. If I have enough relevant data, it's possible for me to convert these projections to WAR.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 7, 2011 -> 09:00 PM) I figured it's too difficult of a category to guess, especially when you predict a 2B and HR, then your SLG could be way off what it should be based on that 2. Same reason I didn't include hits, because then there is math involved to get an accurate answer. Or you could just include ask for the component numbers and get a script to calculate all the necessary numbers. That way, you can expand on those numbers into other more complicated stats if you wanted to.

Why isn't there a category for SLG?

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 08:17 PM) The Sox offered Hunter 5 years - $75M. Good thing that signing never happened.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 03:28 PM) Reminds me of the Red Sox last year. Red Sox got Beltre, Cameron, and Scutaro though.

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 08:56 PM) I got a new computer a year ago, but it doesn't have any photoshop programs in it. I wasn't able to salvage anything from my old computer, so now I'm looking around for a good photoshop program. I'd prefer one that I can download somewhere for free, if any such free programs exists. Anyone recommend anything? GIMP

I really hope Aaron Rodgers isn't on the cover of my Madden game next year. But then again, if he is, he's probably gonna suck due to the Madden curse...lol

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:58 PM) Yankees sign Ronnie Belliard, Eric Chavez to minor league deals. Yankees are doing nothing but picking up scrap heap players this off-season, outside of Soriano and Feliciano.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 12:38 AM) They sign Vlad for 8M. Sign Derrek Lee, Kevin Greg and trade for Mark Reynolds. Good for them for at least trying...too bad their pitching staff is horrendous. Don't forget J.J. Hardy.

Come on Amazon, give me some game credit for MLB 11 The Show so I can pre-order.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Feb 4, 2011 -> 04:41 PM) Voting for the MVP in the NBA is easy but people make it difficult for no reason. The best player in the NBA (and really all sports) is also the most valuable player (as long as he doesn't miss a bunch of games). It really isn't even debatable that James is the most valuable player in the NBA right now and will be for the foreseeable future. This is the case in almost every sport. People tend to bring dependent variables into the discussion when determining the best talent, but that should be an individual evaluation. I don't think the player's surrounding situation should dictate how valuable he is. I tend to ask myself, "if Derrick Rose played for team B, how good would he be?". The answer is that he'd still be pretty damn good, but not LeBron James kind of good. I also get tired of people saying how Rajon Rondo is the best PG in the game because he dishes out 14 assists per game. That's like saying Ryan Howard is MVP because he drives in 140 runs every year. If you look at the situations those players are in, none of the two previous statements make a great deal of sense.

QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Feb 4, 2011 -> 04:45 PM) If that was the case the award would be named different, valuable and best are not the same. It depends on your perception of value. IMO, a player's surrounding circumstances really shouldn't determine his value. A player's skillset should. In this case, there is no doubt that LBJ is the most valuable player in the NBA, in my mind at least. However, I fully understand that not everybody thinks that way, especially the people who actually vote for the MVP. If Rose gets the MVP, I'd be very happy, even though the non-Bulls fan side of me disagrees with the notion.

QUOTE (T R U @ Feb 3, 2011 -> 07:52 PM) Juan Pierre On steroids.

QUOTE (Cali @ Feb 3, 2011 -> 07:13 PM) Could the Sox offer Ben Sheets, I don't know, a new iPod Touch to prove he still has an elbow? I don't think I'd want two injury-prone starters on the team. If it's like a minor league deal, maybe.

QUOTE (MHizzle85 @ Feb 2, 2011 -> 12:55 PM) http://www.lupefiasco.com/ no download link yet, knowing Lupe he's only gonna put up an iTunes link. I just ripped the MP3 right off the embedded music player with Internet Download Manager.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 3, 2011 -> 05:45 PM) Eastern Conference All-Star Reserves: Bosh Horford J. Johnson 4 Boston Celtics Edit: Just added link Saw that coming from a mile away.

David Ross is currently with the Braves. He signed a two year extension last year.