chw42

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:47 PM) I think a lot of teams steal with 2 outs to try and get a run in with just a single. I haven't seen the percentages myself, but it seems kind of apparent that most teams (at least us) do it with no outs or one out. But of course, you need to take this with a grain of salt. It's all about context. I'm more mad at Pierre and Rios running early in the game and ruining scoring chances when Konerko or Quentin are up at the plate. If you need to steal late in a game or it's an obvious steal situation, you do it as long as the guy is sure he can get there.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:43 PM) Because if there's one guy you NEED to scout it's Adam Dunn. lol, yeah, we need to see if his defense is really as bad as some say it is.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:43 PM) So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number? Yeah, but usually, most steals are for second base and it's usually with no outs or one out, so we can basically assume. If you're around 75%, you're not hurting your team. If you're below that, don't really bother.

Gavin is wearing Alexei out.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:38 PM) But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count? I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying. And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense. If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34.

Keep it moving.

The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk. When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good.

Base hit Dayan.

1-0! Good job A.J., nice hustling Kotsay, lol.

Pods still can't play good defense.

The only two teams who have gotten positive production from their steals are Tampa and New York. If you're below 75% on SBs, don't bother.

Pierre's been getting caught at an alarming rate. Since when did Kendall start throwing guys out? I remember he was horrible against us earlier in the year.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 04:36 PM) What is the value of a playoff appearance? My guess is in excess of $6mil. Thus if Dunn = playoffs it doesnt matter what numbers you throw around, it will be a win for the Sox. And Dunn > Thome, so if we had Thome we may never get Dunn. Not to mention Thome is only playing part time and theres no way of knowing if those stats extrapolate to full time player. If we do make the playoffs, then yes, we do make a lot more extra revenue. But even with Dunn, that's nowhere near a guarantee. Other than a left handed power bat, we really need another top of the order hitter. Either that or Gordon Beckham comes back to life.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 04:13 PM) Nets trade Yi Jianlian to Wizards basically to clear cap room. The Wizards are like the dumping ground for salary these days.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 04:14 PM) Pardon me if this was mentioned already but does Dunn have a no trade clause? He doesn't have one from what I can see. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/w...tionals_01.html If we acquire him now, we'd be on the hook for about $6 million left on his deal. If he produces at his projected rate (a .400 wOBA at DH), he is worth 2.5 wins, which is about $8 million in value. We also get at least two picks for him, that's $10 million in return in terms of value. Hudson alone is worth at least $10-$12 million being the type of prospect he is. The second prospect we give up as well as the throw-ins can be worth around $6 million. So by making such a deal we must spend/give away at least $24 million. In return, we get back $18 million in production and prospects. We're going to lose at least $6 million in this deal. Good job Ozzie, not wanting Thome is going to screw us out of prospects and money.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 04:06 PM) post of the day. If that's what he really thinks, then Jermaine Dye is totally right for thinking he can still play right field.

Why would Dunn want to play in the NL? Does he not know he can't field?

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 03:56 PM) Uruguay did play S. Korea, while England played Germany, but I do agree that group C made themselves look pretty bad in the 2nd round. Looking back, if Robert Green doesn't let that cheap goal in, England wins that match and the group, and has matchups vs. Ghana & Uruguay lurking, instead of Germany. Who knows how it would have worked out, but just saying. South Korea is semi-decent. I'd think a matchup between S. Korea and the U.S. would have definitely been very interesting. Green did make a pretty good save against Altidore in the second half, but yeah, had he made both saves, it might have looked very different.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 03:41 PM) Group A wasn't exactly a murderers row either. True, but look where Uruguay is. With the way England got destroyed and how badly the U.S. played when they had so many chances, group C definitely looks pretty bad.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 03:23 PM) Ha the US ends up being the only group winner to lose their round of 16 game. Too bad. Group C was by far the worst group in the entire cup.

FWIW, Utley got hurt on my fantasy team, so I picked up Beckham and started him. Let's see if anything happens, lol.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 03:11 PM) I could say a team of former Sox wouldn't be bad. I'll start with Maggs, Carlos Lee, Garland, Swisher (god I hated him on our team), Olivo, Pods, Thome, Aardsma, Gio, Young. I'm sure there are a ton more. I thought you meant prospects.

Villa's a beast. This is probably Spain's biggest test until the semis and it looks like they've passed.

I think Dunn will take $12 million. Everybody knows the guy is a DH. You don't pay your DH for more than 3 years at more than $12 million.

Thome isn't a dumb baserunner either.