Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 06:21 AM) This and I've been trying to say this too. It's unlikely there are a number of teams willing to give up the talent it would taje to bring back one of Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones and even Abreu. Some of those guys will be here next year and maybe even next which is fine since some of them are signed for 4+ years. Then how do we get better? Only moving one of our studs in addition to the guys who will be free agents in 2018/2019 won't move the needle enough. We'll still be a bad baseball team with a mediocre farm system. We have to commit to a direction. That doesn't mean you have to move everyone right now, but we definitely have to move several of these guys. I'd say trading anything less than three of Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones, & Abreu would represent a huge failure. This is the ultimate seller's market and we must take advantage. Most of these guys are at peak value right now.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 02:18 AM) Adam Eaton was a 6.0 WAR player. He is signed for the next 5 seasons for a total of $38 million. What is this losing surplus value? His highest salary the next 5 years is in year 5 when he is due $10.5 million. If you aren't getting surplus value and you trade him, you should be fired immediately. It would be a trade just to make a trade. People love prospects until they bust. Eaton and Davidson were ranked almost the same as prospects when they were acquired. One is a 6.0 WAR player, one won't be a 6.0 WAR player cumulatively for his career. You hold on to Eaton unless you are blown away with a can't miss package. 2 or 3 years from now he still will be signed for multiple seasons, at a huge bargain. My point is if the next three seasons are a lost cause, then 60% of his surplus value is worthless to us. So let's say his hypothetical surplus value is nearly $200M ($40M/year), his effective value to us may only be $80M. Obviously you don't just give him away, but if a team offers a package of prospects that project to provide $120M to $150M in surplus value, then we should probably take it. Yes, we lose out on some theoretical value, but from a marginal standpoint we come out ahead when considering competive factors.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 08:21 PM) I understand your theory but then maybe the rebuilding w prospects doesn't work. If you are going in expecting 50% of prospects to fail, then it makes a lot more sense trading for young established players. So we are better off w a Jackie Bradley Jr than a Moncad or Benintendi because Bradley is a proven major leaguer. Instead of Hahn trading 3 for 12 prospects he is better off getting 2 established players for each one. 6 established young players would be much better than 12 prospects My post was only intended to be theoretical, so I'm not really assuming prospects are going to bust at a 50% rate. Having said that, major leaguers are obviously much safer than prospects, but contenders are going to be very reluctant to give up established players and including them will greatly reduce the rest of the return. For a team with as many needs as us and little organizational depth, we need both quality & quantity (and as much control as possible) and the best way to accomplish that is by targeting near major league ready prospects (i.e. AA & above). I really think that's the sweet spot when dealing valuable assets like Sale & Quintana. And the good news is there are numerous contenders in need of starting pitching that are loaded with prospects. The Red Sox, Dodgers, & Astros have more than enough prospects to acquire one of our elite pitchers without hurting their ability to compete in the short-run.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 06:29 PM) My point is trading everyone who is good is foolish. The last total rebuild the Sox did was when Larry Himes was the GM. Carlton Fisk stayed. Ozzie Guillen stayed., and then they had the new park to add payroll. Trading Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones, all of them may wind up being pretty foolish. It is fine if you expect each trade to go perfectly, but that is pretty unlikely. Eaton has 5 years left. Do you really think you will get something that turns out better? I don't expect each trade to go perfectly, which is why making more trades hedges you risk. Let's say hypothetically Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Jones can all land four prospects. Let's assume on average 50% of prospects acquired via trade bust. Trade all four guys and you have a decent chance of ending up with 8 productive players across the deals. But only trade one guy and you could realistically end up with anything from four hits to four misses. The more trades we make, the less randomness comes into play. So again, who would you trade is this rebuild was up to you? IMO, you pretty much have to move three of Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Jones. Those are our big four trade chips and the only ones who will land elite prospects. If you don't move enough of them, then all we're doing is a half-ass rebuild and I'm not sure we get better in the long-run. As for Eaton specifically, I'm not sure you'll get fair value for him. And quite frankly, I'm not sure you need it. Even if the rebuild goes well, you're talking about 2 or 3 seasons before we are competitive. So if we hold onto Eaton, we're throwing away two or three years of his surplus value. There is a point in negotiations where maybe you don't quite get fair value, but that you get enough in return that you still feel it's the better move long-term. And let's not ignore the fact that Eaton is at peak value right now, so there is a bit more incentive in moving him now.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 02:18 PM) There is one gigantic flaw in trading everybody for prospects. Prospects bust, so even if you do well, you still are going to have to fill in holes with competent players. Unlike the Cubs, they can't spend $400 million filling in those areas. A couple of these guys are going to have to stick around. I'm not sure I understand your point here. Who are you suggesting stick around? It's guys like Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Jones who will actually bring back value. If you're going to rebuild, you should definitely move them or what is the point? And there's really no reason to hold onto the guys with one or two years left like Robertson, Frazier, or Melky. And acquiring a larger sample of prospects definitely mitigates your overall bust risk.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) If you're rebuilding, you go out and sign someone like Valbuena or Hill to play 3b in the case that a Sale or other player trade does not bring back a valid 3b option. Why wouldn't you just give Davidson a look? I'm not a huge fan of his, but I think he did enough in 2016 to warrant a shot assuming we go full-rebuild and don't acquire anyone better.

I think Dan Jennings goes first. Everyone needs left-handed relievers and his cost should be fairly reasonable.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 01:18 PM) I still think an extension is most likely. Why do you think that?

Abreu had a s***ty first half last year, but put up a wRC+ of 142 & a .898 OPS in the second half. I don't think you can look at his 2016 numbers in aggragate and value him as a player. He's not the same guy he was during his rookie year, but he's still a premium hitter and is under team control for three seasons at what should be a well below market rate if he bounces back to a 3 WAR type player. In this market, there should be at least one team willing to pony up for him. If not, he's a guy who might be worth holding onto until the trade deadline and allowing his trade value to bounce back.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 06:33 AM) No one will f***ing care at all. Hell I half want Hillary Clinton in prison for letting a white supremacist beat her in the election. Lol...I actually 100% agree with this.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 10:18 PM) *One rival executive’s read on the White Sox: “I think they’re in the exact same place they were in during the summer. They’ll listen on everyone, but I think they’ll focus on trying to move the short-term guys first and then listen on the big guys — and ultimately not move the big guys.” The “short-term guys” are Frazier, second baseman Brett Lawrie and outfielder Melky Cabrera, all of whom are entering free-agent years, and closer David Robertson, who is signed through 2018. The “big guys,” of course, are left-handers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. --per Rosenthal If Merkin is suggrsting we're rebuilding, it'a pretty much a certainty. Rosenthal has to be wrong here.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 05:45 PM) Kaplan isn't on his show today, but the panel is still drunk on Cubs kool aide. They said the Cubs wouldn't trade Schwarber straight up for Sale. Lol...a DH who has proven very little but has considerable upside (for a DH) for a top 5 starter in all of baseball with a ridiculous team friendly contract. I'm sorry, but Theo would take that deal in a second without blinking. This is exactly why I hate Cubs fans.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 05:23 PM) Thoughts on what sox could get from Cubs for Q? I would go after Contreras, Soler and Happ Why would you want Soler? Sure, he's got some upside, but he has not shown nearly enough to be a key piece of a Quintana trade.

If all goes well, those bottom five should be knocked off the top 10 list by the end of the offseason. And it's in the realm of possibility that only the top two or three guys are still on it. It all depends on how deep we go with this rebuild, but the possibilities are extremely exciting.

God help us all.

So what options are left for Hilary to pull thus out? Can she still win somehow if she wins Michigan but loses Wisconsin?

QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 09:02 PM) If you live in s***ty poor areas in in some of these states, that's probably ok if it means you can get a job. 120k people voted 3rd party in Virginia. Prob made the difference there. Trump is getting these people jobs??

Does Hilary have any chance at this point?

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 07:42 AM) I think that Benintendi and Devers is fair. Add SWihart. Plus Kopech and another arm. That probably gets it done. I'd do Benintendi, Devers, Swihart, Kopech, & Rodriguez. Look at what Hamels commanded, really not that much more considering the difference in surplus value.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) I think that's far too high for Adams. Also think it overstates on Call and Fisher a bit, but not a huge argument. The 2016 draft was sure a nice boost. Who would you rate ahead of Fisher and Call?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 12:33 PM) Then that doesn't make sense, because Sale and Eaton together would already need Schwarber, Baez, Soler, Almora, Edwards, etc. No need to add Heyward. That I agree with

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 12:24 PM) Whoever suggested Sale and Eaton for Heyward and two prospects doesn't seem to understand the value of Eaton... or Sale.... or both. Both in a package would warrant an absolute monstrous return. He was arguing that taking on Heyward's contract would improve the return.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 12:23 PM) If the rebuild works, they will come back. And I tend to think the season ticket holders we currently have are loyal enough to stick around through a rebuild if they've been loyal to this point. I'm sure most will, but you never know. Regardless, with ticket sales accounting for less and less of the overall revenue picture, I'm not sure it's that much of a risk.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 12:22 PM) Eaton > Heyward... easily. Who is arguing otherwise?

QUOTE (Charlie Haeger's Knuckles @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 11:38 AM) Serious question: How exactly does a fanbase "support" a rebuild? By attending/watching games when the team is bad? The team is already bad, as-is. Whatever base of fans they'd lose to staging and publicly acknowledging a rebuild have already left. The White Sox have literally nothing to lose in a rebuild. The only risk IMO is the potential loss of season ticket holders. A lot of them may jump ship if a lengthy rebuild is on the agenda and you may never get some of them back. But that's a risk we need to take, because the half-ass going for it plans haven't done anything to keep these fans either.