Chicago White Sox

They should resign him even if they know his arm won’t hold up next year?

What could we even trade him for? At 2B the only names worth considering would be Ketel Marte and maybe Gavin Lux. Can’t even think of a good name on the SP side.

Adam Engel is a 4th OF and should be treated as such. Game-planning that he can be more than that despite injuring himself every season is the definition of insanity. Sheets & Vaughn are NOT major league RFs. When playing RF, they both averaged -1 DRS per 40 innings played (SSS but the eye test and basic logic confirm them being horrible out there). For perspective, that is roughly the same level of defense Jermaine Dye provided in 2007 and he was literally the worst defensive OF in baseball per DRS. And despite posting a wRC+ of 104, Dye ended up having a -1.2 fWAR season. Point is that any offensive value these guys can provide in RF will be greatly offset by their poor defense. Who are these SP & 2B we are going to spend “big money” on? You can make this claim but point me to some names that fit the billing. More realistically, we will need address these spots via trade (with Sheets a potential trade chip). As such, the one spot that we can fill in free agency and help shore our weakness against tough RHP is in RF. We are in our World Series window RIGHT NOW. We only have Lucas Giolito & Yasmani Grandal for two more years. We only have Tim Anderson, Lance Lynn, & Liam Hendriks for three more years. Yoelqui Cespedes & Oscar Colas should have ZERO bearing on our near-term decision making. The only thing that matters is winning a World Series in 2022, 2023, & 2024. If Cespedes & Colas eventually develop into usable pieces that’s great, but for now they should be strictly minor league depth and potential trade chips. Not signing Conforto because you are worried about blocking these two guys would be a fireable offense IMO.

Only way Jose goes if his production slips substantially or his demands get ridiculous. I think we need assume Jose is here for another couple years.

Man I think people will be pissed if we trade sign Castellanos to turn around and trade Vaughn. Unless you’re using Andrew to get a legit ace (who I’d ask) or Ketel Marte, there isn’t really anything out there that makes sense. And even then, you’re quickly shrinking this window to about three years. And maybe that makes sense; but losing Vaughn’s pre arb salary will make that even more challenging.

You’re probably right on how La Russa would use them if both were on the roster, which means Sheets needs to go via trade to address the rotation or 2B.

If you sign Conforto and add a platoon 2B, then you have plenty of balance. The numbers in parentheses reflect each player’s wRC+ vs. RHP or LHP over the past three seasons. Anderson, SS (118) | Anderson, SS (151) Moncada, 3B# (129) | Robert, CF (184) Abreu, 1B (118) | Abreu, 1B (159) Conforto, RF* (138) | Jimenez, LF (99) Jimenez, LF (124) | Grandal, C# (152) Robert, CF (117) | Vaughn, DH (155) Grandal, C# (124) | Moncada, 3B# (110) Vaughn, DH (68) | Conforto, RF* (97) Miller, 2B* (127) | Garcia, 2B# (106) In regards to Vaughn, he’s only going to get better against RHP if we actually play him against RHP. And the kid was a 60 FV prospect 100% because of the potential of his bat. I’m one of Gavin Sheets’ biggest fans on this board, but under no circumstance do you use his performance last year to relegate Vaughn to a weak-side DH platoon role. And if that’s the plan for Vaughn, send him to AAA to gain a year of service time back or trade him for something that can help us win now. Weak-side platooning Vaughn is horrible use of a very important asset and would have long-term repercussions.

I’d be ok with him getting two or three weeks in Charlotte.

Why isn’t DH going to be the spot for Vaughn?

Kopech isn’t starting the year in the minors after last year and I don’t see how we can manage his innings well enough to assume he’ll be productive for the postseason. Way too risky of a plan IMO. This year is about building Kopech up and unleashing him in 2023. As for Miller, the fWAR he put up is a function of how he was used. He is a platoon bat who had ~20% of plate appearances against same side pitching. He also was also used in the OF where he was horrible and should never play. Meanwhile, his advanced metrics at 2B were solid. For $3M he could be a great value if used exclusively at 2B with minimal at-bats against LHP. And for the record, I was a big Madrigal fan, but he’s irrelevant to the decision at hand. We can’t afford three expensive players at SP, RF, & 2B and if I have to go cheap at one of them it’s going to be at 2B with Miller being as decent as an option that exists.

Couple things here. I think we both agree the rotation can’t be ignored. The key difference is I want an arm that can help in October and not just one that help us get us there. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take Pineda over nothing, but would rather trade for a more impactful arm if those are my two options. I also think RF defense is important, but that getting a left-handed bat is equally as important. We’ve too right-handed for way too long and need better balance if we want to take that next step. The perfect solution is a RF who hits well from the left side and can be average with the glove. Finally, I don’t think Brad Miller sucks if used properly. At a bare minimum, he’s capable enough in a platoon role to get us to the trade deadline.

Good article from @Y2Jimmy0 on this very subject https://www.southsidesox.com/2022/2/14/22925472/chicago-white-sox-offseason-needs-pitching

I think we need to acknowledge that Jerry doesn’t have a ton of time left on this planet and right now an increased CBT is helpful to him. Back in 1994 he had 30 years of ownership ahead of him and breaking the union made much more long-term sense. His focus right now should be winning a championship and hopefully that’s the reason he’s not actively fighting for reduced spending limits.

There will be a season and we’re already seeing the players caving with a 14 team playoff format. Regardless, if the Sox can’t afford Rodon or Kershaw, then they need to go to the trade market to address the rotation. I’m done with Nomar Mazara’s and Adam Eaton’s being used to fill important needs. It’s time to stop fucking around and win a World Series.

Ultimately I think both are needs, more so than breaking than the bank on a 2B. Give me a Brad Miller / Leury Garcia platoon at 2B if it allows me to add a left-handed RF and a legit SP. I’m not sure 2 fWAR pitcher is going to help us in the playoffs and right now Keuchel is the dude starting a potential game 4. It’s time to break the bank and plug our holes with quality options that can help us in October. The trade deadline should be used to address problem areas that arise during the season.

I agree that the “handshake agreement” theory could be an explanation for why the Sox did not offer Rodon a QO, but his health was so shitty down the stretch and in recent years that I think it has to do more with that. Regardless, I’d be happy if the Sox brought him back after not QOing him as it means medicals were the never the issue. Just don’t think that will be the case and that we’ll need to explore other options.

I really don’t see how Conforto is a luxury item. This team struggles against tough RHP and our RF defense got exposed in the playoffs. Our team desperately needs to address both areas to be successful come October and more so than adding a 2 win SP. Realistically, we need both a big left-handed and another #3 type pitcher. Can’t be afraid to lose a trade at the peak of our competitive window.

By next offseason Kopech could be our ace with Giolito, Lynn, & Cease behind him. At that point you just need a #5 starter and that should be easy enough to add via free agency. I can’t stress this enough, but our rotation is the one thing that could prevent us from making the playoffs. If we suffer any injury to one of the big three starters and Keuchel doesn’t improve substantially from his 2021 form we could be in legit trouble. Serious contenders don’t enter a season with two question marks and limited depth. A starter needs to be added even if it weakens the farm.

I’m in the Sox must add a SP group, but if all they did from this point forward is bring back Rodon then that is a disaster of an offseason. And the OP’s analysis only considers Carlos’ 2021 production and misses his broader body of work and injury history. Plainly put, if you bring back Rodon there is no guarantee you get the 2021 guy. If there was, the Sox would have QOed him because a 5 win pitcher on a 1/$19M deal is the steal of the century. It’s very obvious that either the Sox are concerned in his ability to be healthy next year or are worried that a lack of work ethic in the past will resurface and undo the gains he made last year. Either way, it’s hard seeing the Sox bring him back at this point. If you assume Carlos if off the table, there are couple different routes to the address the rotation. Kershaw would be a tremendous addition if the Sox have the payroll space and he’s willing to come to the south side. The TOR stuff is still there even if it’s unlikely he’ll give you 30 starts. However, with Keuchel still in toe, you can baby him a bit and work around any injuries in hopes of keeping him healthy for the playoffs. He is the only free agent who likely could make an impact in October and would create a strong foursome alongside Giolito, Lynn, & Cease. This is nice as it prevents you from relying on Dallas or Kopech as your fourth starter in the playoffs. After Kershaw, you’re looking at a mix of rebound candidates and high variance guys. Greinke had a strong 2020, but saw all his peripherals fall off in 2021, with K rate dropping to 6.32 per 9 being particularly worrisome. Smyly was supposed to be a savvy signing this past offseason, but saw his K rate drop by nearly 60% with the Braves. Archer returned for five ok starts, but the stuff wasn’t fully there and who knows how many innings he’ll be able to provide given he’s coming off only 19 innings the last two years. Kikuchi put up a nice first half last year with a tremendous groundball rate (a plus for us), but regressed down the stretch and hasn’t put a good full season together since coming stateside. Pineda put up ok numbers in 2021, but his stuff was significantly worse than prior seasons and he doesn’t have the greatest track record as of late. Duffy up put excellent stats in 12 starts for the Royals last year (3.40 FIP | 1.6 fWAR), but his health status is a major question mark at the moment. One of those guys probably has a really nice 2022 season but they are all more or less complete gambles and odds are you get one who provides mediocre production. If you’re just looking for innings, then Tyler Anderson could be an option, but I’d like more ceiling out of any rotation addition as we’re an injury away from needing both Keuchel & Kopech to make starts in the playoffs. To me, it quickly becomes sign Kershaw or go the trade route to address the rotation. The challenge here, which I’ve mentioned repeatedly, is we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Unless you’re willing to trade Vaughn, we are greatly limited in who’d be able to acquire via trade. Let’s get this out of the way, any starter worth a damn with more than two years of control at even reasonable rates is going to be off the table. As such, we’re looking at a very limited population of starters. The A’s & Reds each have three guys who meet this criteria in Bassitt (1), Manaea (2), & Montas (2) and Castillo (2), Gray (2), & Mahnle (2) respectively, making them our most likely trade partners. Even within this group, I think that Castillo, Mahnle, & Montas are probably too costly for us. As such, that leaves Bassitt or Manaea from the A’s or Gray from the Reds as reasonable targets. From a cost standpoint, I think Bassitt & Manaea are going to cost less than what Lynn went for last offseason and won’t command a consensus top 100 prospect. Gray will definitely be more expensive given the extra year of control and is probably pushing our capabilities to the limits. Now, when looking at our farm system, I see 11 guys who can move the needle in a trade and I’d break them out into a couple of groups. First, we have four prospects that I consider untouchable at the moment in Montgomery, Kath, Colas, & Veras (as their value should grow considerably next year). After them, you’ve got the trio of young arms in Kelley, Dalquist, & Thompson, two younger positional guys in Rodriguez & Ramos, and two older positional guys in Burger & Cespedes. I’dd also add Sheets to that 3rd group assuming we add a RF. So out of the pieces mentioned above, what would it take to land Bassitt or Manaea? Honestly, I think a trade built around one of Burger or Sheets and one of the three young arms could get a deal done. Perhaps a throw-in such is needed, in particular for Bassitt, but I truly believe we’d be in the ballpark right there as rentals just don’t go for crazy prices anymore. And’s the A’s are going to be highly motivated to move these guys and could use a power bat to replace Chapman & Olson who are likely to be moved in the near future. As for Gray, things start to get more tricky. It’s hard to determine what the Reds are trying to accomplish next year as they have some nice young pieces but are cash strapped and plagued with several bad contracts. I don’t see them fully rebuilding, but I also don’t see them as legitimate playoff contenders either. As such, I could see them wanting a mix of current & long-term value. Given our lack of top 100 prospects, this is going to have to be a quantity over quality package. Does a package built around Burger or Sheets, Ramos or Rodriguez, one of the young arms, plus Cespedes get us in the ballpark? I personally think it does as it’s four top 10 prospects, which even from a weak system, is pretty substantial. So in conclusion, I feel like there are three legit options to address the rotation if we’re serious about winning a championship next year: Sign Kershaw to a ~2/$45M contract (assuming he’s even open to coming here) Acquire Bassitt or Manaea for Sheets/Burger + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + throw-in Acquire Gray for Sheets/Burger + Ramos/Rodriguez + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + Cespedes Adding Kershaw at that price will likely limit what we can do for RF / 2B, while making either trade weakens a bottom five farm system. There isn’t a perfect option here, but if we want to win a World Series next year we can’t bank on Keuchel & Kopech to be 2/5 of our rotation. An addition is needed and preferably an impactful one.

Add a SP and we looking damn good.

Personally I’d prioritize Conforto, Bryant, & Castellanos in that order.

He opted out of his contract so I don’t think so

I’d rather have Castellanos in RF than a Vaughn / Sheets, but no idea why you’d prioritize him over Conforto.