Chicago White Sox

Honestly, I think it’s a great idea for a thread. Cue one up and I’d definitely partake.

Vomit piles of text…????. Man reading three whole paragraphs consisting of three to seven sentences must be really tough. I’m guessing you were a real wizard in school.

Based on the “cherry picked” three year period you selected. What happened to using career numbers to avoid all that manipulative “slicing & dicing”? Pretty sure that would put his UZR/150 at like -1.2 in RF, which is slightly below average. But please keep being a walking contradiction whenever is suits you buddy. Also, not sure what the “Conforto played CF” comment is in regard to, but if you can’t understand the dude has significantly more athleticism than true 1B/DH types like Vaughn & Sheets then god bless you. And I find it fascinating you still don’t get this Kimbrel stuff, but I’ve wasted too much time on that argument. You are so angry about that trade and incapable at peeling the onion without somehow thinking it’s “cherry picking” that my point will never click with you.

No idea what your first bullet, but apparently you love your little catch-phrases. And yes, Kyle Schwarber’s 2021 was an outlier. His wRC+ of 145 was a career best and 26 points than anything since his rookie year. You want to argue this is him just improving, but then ignore the season before when he put up a wRC+ of 89 and was non tendered to avoid paying him $10M. The good news for those of us who don’t base everything on the prior year was that it was likely 2020 was just a down year and he would be better in 2021. And sure enough he was better, but to a degree that blew his career numbers out of the water. As such, Steamer projects his wRC+ next year to be at 125, a cool 20 points below his 2021 season. Clearly I’m not the only one who sees his 2021 season as an outlier. Meanwhile, Conforto’s wRC+ of 106 last year was 22 points worse than his career average heading into the season and would be even worse if compared against his healthy prime years (2017 to 2020), but I don’t want to be accused of “slicing & dicing” for actually taking context into perspective. Regardless, we know that Conforto was battling a hamstring injury last year and his numbers got much better in the 2nd half as he got healthier, but we should ignore that context as well since that would be “finagling”. Funny enough, despite all my evil data manipulation, Steamer projects his wRC+ to be 121 next year, which suggests they also view his 2021 season as an outlier. And no, Fangraphs doesn’t think his defense sucked the last three years (a period you came up with FYI before you make more accusations). In both 2019 & 2020 he posted positive UZR/150’s in RF. He did have a shitty UZR/150 in 2021, but is it crazy to think a hamstring might negatively impact his defense? Wait sorry, I forgot I’m not allowed to use any critical thinking when doing analysis. As such, given his defense was really bad last year then clearly it must suck balls into perpetuity. Everyone knows that one year of defensive metrics are highly predictive right?

There is so much wrong with this post…just so much. Apparently all that matters when doing analysis is career stats or the prior season. Nothing else at all allowed. If you dare present data for any other period of time, perhaps to strip out early development years or an injury plagued season, then you must be “finagling”. Thank god my employer doesn’t demand such lazy analysis as you do.

Schwarber was a platoon bat prior to this season. And his career numbers against RHP are worse than Conforto’s when park adjusted (i.e. wRC+) and are significantly worse if you back out 2021 (which is an outlier year for both guys). And their defense is not even remotely comparable.

He had a 143 wRC+ against RHP from 2017 to 2020. That’s 10th overall amongst all hitters during that time frame, so if that doesn’t count as elite I don’t know what does. And I’m still not sure what this -10 runs defense you are referring to is. Again, prior to last season every major defensive metric had him average or better. Dude is athletic enough to have been used in CF for 1,137 innings over his career. He is not a 1B/DH because of one bad, injury riddled defensive year.

We’ve discussed Conforto’s LF/RF defense in this thread previously and OAA, DRS, & UZR all had Micheal as an average or better fielder prior to the 2021 season in which he was dealing with a hamstring injury. As for his health, he basically played full seasons from 2018 to 2020, so not overly concerned there. Now when you ask why would we want him, it’s as simple as him being elite against RHP, which is our single biggest offensive need. I don’t see a single player who can solve that need at the potential price point without adding an actual DH in Schwarber.

All true, but I’d expect the tax threshold to go up some in the new CBA.

Yeah, not going down this rabbit hole with you pal. My point should be pretty clear and I’m not suggesting we should spend our money on Duffy, just saying that’s all it would take to push us to a sizable payroll.

That’s not the point, it’s simply showing how quickly this payroll will be approaching $200M and the luxury tax.

These comments are a bit premature. If the Sox go sign Conforto and even a Danny Duffy type starter for $10M, they are pushing $190M in cash payroll next year and would probably be at the luxury tax under the current rules. I’m as disappointed as everyone here that we didn’t get anything done prior to the lockout, but it’s way too early to declare we won’t be rocking a significant payroll next year.

I love Sheets, but we need to stop burning Vaughn’s control as a role player. Either he starts on Opening Day or he should begin the season in AAA and get us back a year of service time. I’d personally rather him be out starting DH, but could definitely see Tony use him as a bench piece.

Are you suggesting we start Sheets over Vaughn?

My hope is Conforto for RF and a bridge guy at 2B. Cespedes hasn’t shown enough to be considered in the major league plans and Colas isn’t even in the organization yet. The next guy with a semblance of hope of being an everyday guy is Mieses and he’s both a long-shot and quite a ways off. At least with 2B you have Rodriguez who could maybe be ready by 2023 and possibly Sanchez in some capacity as soon as next year. Someone like Segura (if a big left-handed bat is added elsewhere) would be a good solve for a year.

Dollars are fine I guess, still nuts we’re giving a three year deal that covers his age 31 to 33 seasons. As long as this doesn’t prevent us from adding real talent elsewhere, I’m content with this move.

This is your something for the next two months! ?

As long as this doesn’t preclude from other material additions, I’m fine with Romy being AAA insurance for a season.

How is Romy getting a real opportunity with Leury in front of him? And if Leury regresses to his 2018/2019 version I doubt he’ll be in hot demand. Really don’t think it’s a simple as you’re making it to out to be, but I’ll hold off further panicking until I see the actual terms of the deal. Maybe it’s less than I’m anticipating.

Leury has a career 76 wRC+ against RHP. Yes he was solid last year, but he’s got a ways to go to prove he’s anything but a token “switch hitter”.

100% agree. And we have Romy Gonzalez who is a Leury starter kit with a bit more upside if it all clicks. Zero reason to spend $6M on a bench piece (for three years no less) if we can allocate those funds elsewhere. And I get I’m in the minority on Leury, but I’m a little concerned this is a sign we’ll be “spreading the wealth” this offseason with a bunch of C tier signings. I pray I’m overreacting, but signing Leury to a multi year deal was the last thing I wanted us to do this offseason.

I’m just saying that’s the plan right now. He is not intended to be the starting 2B and I doubt this stops us from adding a RF, but definitely worries me how big of signing we’re going to make if we just spend $6M to $7M on a utility guy. Hopefully I’m wrong and this will be on top of adding legit players elsewhere, but this stinks of Tony La Russa heavily influencing roster decisions and overvaluing a role player when we have bigger needs.

Oh don’t worry, they’ll still trade Kimbrel for Segura instead of using the $21M on a true impact player.

Nope, to backup our future 2B and Vaughn / Sheets in RF.

I was going to say $18M was projection, but either way gross as fuck.