Jerksticks

Yes. Thankfully this virus isn’t super infectious, airborne and spread by asymptomatic people. So when the world opens back up, Italy’s remaining 59,935,000 wont have to worry. Because this time if somebody shows up to the hospital with pneumonia they’ll test immediately and ask them if they’ve been in contact with other people in the last 14 days, and then ask those people if they’ve been in contact with people the last 14 days. I don’t see any issues. Now if this thing was airborne and transmitted by asymptomatic carriers, this would be a different story. Thankfully it’s not. China has it beat and Italy is beating it. Good job!

Exactly. But those additional 600,000 are out there quarantined, spreading virus. So if Balta is right...expect hundreds of thousands of dead bodies in the coming weeks.

Right. The unfortunate thing is when the world turns back on...59,936,000 Italians will still be completely vulnerable to the virus, a shocking 99.89% of their population.

This is great news. Thank God the other 59,936,000 citizens of Italy weren’t affected. Phew. Close call. Only a tenth of 1% went to the hospitals and overran the entire healthcare system. Existential crisis averted

Not necessarily. Italy is probably a nice worst-case-scenario set of data to use since their death rate is an alarmingly high 10% of reported cases. Italy Facts: Reported cases (positive tests): 64,000 Deaths: 6,000! Population of Italy: 60 million Untested Population: 59,936,000 Obviously within that remaining 59,936,000 lies both unreported infections and unreported deaths. So you seem to be in the camp that this is a total bloodbath of a virus which is fine. Test, test, test! It’s the only way! In that view, the Italian lockdown was an absolutely crucial measure, since it’s saved 59,936,000 people give or take (99.89% of their population). They haven’t been exposed yet thankfully. Reports are the hospitals are currently overrun and they are not even putting people over 60 on ventilators, leaving them to die, which is awful. Interestingly, their system is completely overrun with only .11% of their population going to the hospitals! A tenth of a percent. 99.89% hasn’t even gotten tested or needed the hospital yet, thankfully. Imagine if just 1% needed hospitalization! That would be 600,000 people or 10x more coming to the hospital! If it’s overrun NOW, holy frickin crap. Thankfully they shut everything down so nobody else got it. So thankfully their lockdown has started to work since their infections and deaths are coming down slightly the last day or two. with 99.9% of their population saved and never exposed, they’ve avoided a catastrophe! They’ve done a good job saving 99.9% of their population considering how easily it spreads; stays on some surfaces for days! Fortunately 99.9% of their population doesn’t have it because like you said, you’d see hundreds of thousands of body bags. Maybe millions, considering how easily it spreads. And then, thinking down the line, once the world opens back up for international travel, they have to be very careful in Italy considering 99.9% of their population is STILL vulnerable. Considering how fast it spreads, they’ll have to make sure they are taking temperatures at the airports because they wouldn’t want to risk an outbreak in the remaining 99.9% of the population, since a tenth of 1% getting the virus has completely overrun their health system. Granted, the numbers are localized to areas of outbreak, which skews the percentages, but by how much? I dunno but the numbers are the numbers, and that’s all we have right now. The numbers

I’m still trying to figure out if the infected amount in USA is 30,000 (obviously not remotely close), hundreds of thousands (eh, really though?), millions, tens of millions or hundred million +. pretty much everybody I know is sick or has been sick recently. Tens of millions is my guess due to the rural communities lagging behind. What does your gut tell you?

All the people spouting off high hospitalization rates never include the asymptomatic rate. But that’s because it’s not available. And it could be huge, we don’t know. The only data we have is from a cruise ship and I think that estimated about 20% unaffected. But that sample is so small. But I think you’re heading in the right direction with your thinking. It explains not testing as the national strategy. Match that up with 2 months of super-infectious virus flying around the world and you’ve got the foundation for trying to understand what’s going on.

Cualfield linked to a great article and could fill in some details. But isn’t it safe to assume that for close to TWO months, non-stop international flights in and out of Wuhan?

Shhhhh. Dude you are about to get social-justiced the eff outa here for even saying that slander ?

Nice to see some brains popping up in here trying to think it out. Definitely some inconsistencies that make you wonder Edit. i think we should start the timeline at the beginning on here and figure out how long the virus was flying around the world BEFORE China closed down. Wonderful place to start

I love everything about what you’ve written here. You the man!

Whoa man don’t lump me in with panic people. I just think a shit ton of people have it and the strategy is not to test. Not saying I agree with it- I just think that’s what this is. And it’s a perfectly damn okay and arguable theory to have. Absolutely nothing wrong with it. Nothing at all. So pipe down with the broad brush stuff, I don’t appreciate it.

Welcome to the light. I’d bet 50-100 million Americans have it right now.

This for sure.

How can your brain link, “Me speculating about the available scientific information” all the way to “spreading misinformation”? Like how does a brain do that? You just accused me of something I’m not doing in the least. That’s so bizarre. The whole basis of science is forming hypotheses and then testing them. Again, we all are reading the same stuff online. All of us. We all know the facts right now. I’m sorry everybody. I got a sick family and know tons of sick people and there are interesting things to speculate about. I’ll shut up now and if anybody wants to go down the rabbit hole some more, keep PMing me. Good luck to everybody

? This is just the common information. Alright you win. I’ll stop. Let’s just hash out the common talking points some more.

I get what you’re saying. I think we all do. You’re repeating the information out there. I didn’t cherry pick anything. I sure as hell am speculating though- that’s the idea with trying to explain inconsistencies. I think you missed my point. If this thing is as contagious as told then it would already pretty much be everywhere since it was flying around the globe during the holiday months. Sick people are being tested. What if the asymptomatic/mild flu number is astronomical? We have no data

Me too man. I mentioned above but maybe half their population has it? So like 30 million. Or say Merkel is right that 70% will get it, which is probably low but whatever. If it’s as infectious as experts say, the virus was probably all over Italy before the first people reported symptoms. So out of 30-50 million, you have 10-15,000 people showing symptoms going to hospitals. The numbers become alarmingly low. i hope that’s the case

Yea. Dude if it’s as infectious as they say, especially asymptomatically and how it’s airborne and stays on surfaces...it had to have spread all over the world December and January before China shut down. None of this makes sense. Testing seems completely pointless and maybe the world realized that and the best global strategy is to actually have us all bicker about testing for a while while the disease runs its course. What does a billion positive tests accomplish except flood hospitals with people not in critical condition. the strategy is to not test so the people with pneumonia can get help. Italy is fucking it up edit: I’m guessing. Just trying to figure it out.

Yep. Still think the only thing that makes sense is tens, maybe hundreds of thousands here have it. I know a lot of sick people.

Dude. How can you possibly say that after what I said? I’m the one saying I think probably hundreds of thousands here already have it, in my cities alone. Sweet Moses.

I see what you’re saying. Maybe we just don’t know yet, as a world? Countries are struggling just to test and take care of the sick, but are they really focusing on testing the whole population? So South Korea is an interesting counterpoint to my hypothesis- testing 20,000 per day, and now over 200,000 total tested, but yet only having 7-8000 total cases. Is it possible the asymptomatic don’t carry enough load to trigger a positive? I’m just really struggling to explain how the whole San Antonio and AUSTIN metropolitan areas, containing millions and millions of people within an hour or so radius, giant international tech, recreation & convention destinations, huge international hubs....has zero cases still.

Ok so if reports are that it’s killing 4 in 2000 healthy young people that still just means 4 in 2000 REPORTED cases. So we have to assume there is some number greater than zero representing asymptomatic infections who never get tested. What if that number is huge? Say for every 2000 reported cases there are another 2000 asymptomatic cases. so you go from .002 to .0005 death rate. is this crazy talk? Maybe the nursing home thing in Washington says this is crazy talk. EDIT: what if half of Italy’s population actually has corona virus (30 million) and only 12,000 have symptoms, rushing to hospitals to get tested. And then 800 of those have died. that would explain america’s lack of testing.

It’s just strange. So my personal experience is my family has had back to back flu over the course of the last month- caught it from sister in law end of January. Wife and young kid going through it again right now, but it’s different. I never get sick, like ever and I had it 3 or so weeks ago for a few days. And then I got 2 customers the last few days calling us saying “hey, my wife/husband is sick but we called and don’t qualify for a test so we understand if you don’t want to send anybody to work over here for a while.” And I’m in a pretty big popular city in America that has yet to have a single confirmed case in the county or surrounding counties. Not 1. But yet people have been flying around the world with corona for a couple of months, through our international airport. If it’s as infectious as claimed, then the amount of infected in my city isn’t zero but probably tens of thousands minimum, including myself and my family. I personally think hundreds of thousands in my city have it and maybe the actual percentage that even show symptoms is waaaay lower than thought. I dunno. Just trying to think it through

I just don’t think any of this is as simple as “America is dropping the ball”. No way. We knew about in December. It was flying all over the world for 2 months. Our smart people knew that. Trump isn’t an idiot. I feel like this is all an act. Not testing seems to be our strategy so I’m trying to figure out why.