Eminor3rd

http://neifi.co/the-marlins-depth-and-meas...ength/#more-261 Essentially, they project the Sox to lose nearly 5 wins this year simply by allowing black holes to exist, rather than replace them with 1 WAR-ish guys. This is the third worst figure in the MLB, behind only the Phillies and Braves. It's the worst figure in the AL by more than an entire win. I think the premise is a little flawed, because I think that 1 WAR-ish guys are harder/more costly to acquire than everyone seems to assume. But this illustrates the frustration many of us are expressing related to ignoring the corner OF spot despite the veritable cornucopia of available options at all price points. This also makes me cringe when i think about Adam LaRoche. He's gotta bounce back a bit, right? Right?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2016 -> 11:09 AM) Trick question, the answer is always Lyle Mouton. Touche!

Rollins - 10% Saladino - 8% Anderson - 1% Sanchez - 1% Beckham - 80%

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 07:03 PM) Sure, we could have kidnapped him and forced him to play for the Sox, or drastically overpaid a player after which you would be angry at the production to cost ratio, or the Sox could have magically become the favorite to win the World Series thereby attracting more players. All are legit strategies. The issue I've had is that, other than Justin Upton, I haven't seen any evidence that the Sox would have had to "drastically overpay" for any of the myriad corner OF options that they failed to acquire. I'm not saying that many of them didn't give hometown discounts, but you could have increased the winning price by 25-35% and still ended up with a contract that everyone would think was fair; 50% an ended up with "Welp, that's about right for free agency these days." And I believe that money is the number one factor when there's a difference of that much.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 03:44 PM) David Kaplan ‏@thekapman 2h2 hours ago I have to tell you, I never saw this coming but the Cubs move speaks to the absolute class person that @dexterfowler is. Phenomenal guy. I wonder what Adam Jones thinks about this What? How? This move wasn't about wanting to stay in Chicago, it was about wanting to re-enter the free agent market in a better year for more money. Which is fine. I don't blame him. But GMAFB about this making Fwoler a "class person." Lol

One good thing about this year's list, in terms of the health of the system, is that we're not likely to see any significant graduations in 2016. Fulmer and Anderson will likely get September looks, but we should be going into 2017 with a lot more depth than we've had in a while.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 03:33 PM) It's been said before, but the real frustration here is seeing Coghlan go to Oakland for peanuts, not Fowler signing elsewhere. Agreed -- another great fit off the table. If there's reason to be upset, it's about the aggregate result of the offseason OF "hunt," not any individual player.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 01:50 PM) Right, but the trade off is likely losing a prospect that is closer to the majors if they trade for an OF now, or in June/July. Yes, but I'd assume that Hahn targeting someone with multiple years of control.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 01:41 PM) I thought Gallardo didn't sign (failed physical). Or did they end up eventually signing him? Restructured deal; 2/22 with an option.

The fact that Fowler just signed for $8m and an option actually doesn't upset me as much as the 3/$33m deal that fell through did -- this choice was clearly about an opt-out. I get that Hahn didn't want to put Fowler back on the market after one season if it meant losing a prospect.

QUOTE (gosoxgo2005 @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 10:56 AM) Long time lurker, first time poster. To the guy who said the Sox are the only team going to the playoffs in Chicago this year -- is that supposed to be a troll post? If it is, I like it, because I, like many of you, hate the Cubs and would love to see them not make the playoffs. With that said, that organization is in pristine condition right now and I would be willing to wager every single dollar to my name that they make the playoffs in 2015. I think it's mostly "wishful" thinking.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 10:03 AM) My point was that you could live with Avi's .257 AVG and .309 OBP if he were hitting for power. If his SLG was in the .450's his offense would not be the biggest problem. Of all the things that you can complain about Avi, his OBP and walk rate are not at the top of the list. That's true, but the factors that lead to his AVG/OBP/BB% are many of the same that make his SLG so bad. His approach/pitch recognition are to blame for nearly all of his issues at the plate. If you take the approach of extreme optimism, it's possible that a new stance/swing could give him a better look at the ball and allow him to react to the pitch quicker, but I think it's more likely that the problem is his eyes. Ironically, the fact that he was willing to try to take a few walks last year only strengthens my belief that he can't hit, because that removes "willingness to be patient" from the list of possible solutions. I know you're probably just frustrated with the negativity, and I've been a source of way more of it than usual across the entire forum. FWIW, I still really hope I'm wrong about Avi.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Feb 24, 2016 -> 06:20 PM) Not sure anyone has really grappled with my point. That it's like 100-1 in ink about RF versus discussions about the rest of the team. A whole lot of White Sox players underperformed last year, not just Avi Garcia. Adam LaRoche not only sank the team offensively, he tied up payroll that could have been spent this year on a contract like Dexter Fowler's. Melky Cabrera was SO bad early, and even though he got hot in the middle, ended up with a very down year. Not to mention that his splits, which used to be pretty equal from both side of the plate, dropped off a cliff against left handers. When you add in that LaRoche was a zero against lefties, and Abreu had a bad year against them, it made the Sox particularly weak against southpaws. Melky also helped sour the White Sox brass on free agent contracts, I believe. Sanchez, Saladino, Beckham, Bonafacio, Olt, Gillaspie, Ramirez, Flowers. These are all guys who got plenty of ABs (not so much Bonafacio) and were TERRIBLE offensively. On the pitching side, Shark was awful, Danks was his usual pretty-bad self and without the offensive support had a bad W-L record. Robertson had 5 losses and plenty of blown saves. None of the main bullpen guys had an ERA under 3.41. Even Chris Sale had an ERA of 3.41. So the great pitching we are supposed to have never really materialized. I guess I'm just tired of reading AVI, AVI, AVI, AVI, AVI all the time, when he's only 1 player. If the team around him performed up to expectations, the Sox could absolutely win with Avi in RF. With all due respect, I think you're missing OUR point. It isn't about hating Avi, it's that Avi has been the easiest major problem to fix for practically the entire offseason. Avi himself doesn't deserve anymore blame for 2015 than LaRoche, but if you look at the available upgrades across the league and factor in their salaries, a focus on upgrading in RF was clearly the best choice.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 24, 2016 -> 05:00 PM) 3rd highest walk rate and 4th highest OBP on the team last year. If he could hit for the .175 - .200 ISO like a guy with his size and power should be he would be fine on offense. It's not about walks -- he swings and makes contact with terrible pitches. His O-Swing% (46.6%) was worst on the team by more than eight percentage points, and third worst in the entire MLB (league average was 31.3%). This causes him to make bad contact, which is a significant contributor to his curiously low power numbers.

www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-comps-for-two-views-of-carlos-rodon/ Rodon's slider is practically identical to Kershaw's slider.

QUOTE (Baron @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 06:49 PM) Everything's fine. Why upgrade one of the worst defensive OFs in baseball?

C, 2B, and 3B were addressed quickly in the offseason. DH is difficult to replace because you'd be forced to bench or DFA the $13m attached to LaRoche. Between SS and RF, the former is a bad bat with plus defense, while the latter is a bad bat with bad defense. So if you have to replace one, it's the RF.

Yeah, I don't get it.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 05:02 PM) I wasn't saying they won't make trades. Also the way I phrased that was just pointing out the obvious. All teams only make trades when they feel they have clearly wont he trade so just ignore that post. Not sure what I was trying to get at. I think Cameron's point was that a lot of teams will make trades that seem like roughly even exchanges of value, but meet the team's needs more. For example, Dombrowski gave up a ton for Kimbrel -- I highly doubt he thinks he fleeced the Padres, he probably just feels he traded from prospect depth to get a piece that he needed more than San Diego did. Cameron was saying that the Rays don't do that; they've got internal player valuation models that give them dollar-like assessments of asset value, and they only make trades if those models show them coming out way ahead.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 02:39 PM) I feel you. I think I took some of my frustration out on my replies to you because all I have heard for weeks is what a failure this offseason was and how Rick Hahn isn't even trying, etc. and you happened to be the one giving me responses. I respect your opinion on what you think Hahn should have done, I just don't think it's that simple. I think leaks from agents and other organizations made Sox fans feel like a deal might have been closer to materializing that it actually was for one of the big 3. Cespedes is the only one that I think we could have persuaded with enough money, but he wanted to stay with the Mets an they gave him enough to satisfy him. I still think a trade is the best route to us getting an OFer. Yeah, I think Dick Allen broke down each contract for the "big three" OFers that have signed so far and looked at why each of them probably had their own unique obstacles for the White Sox. And I think if I can believe that, and give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. But man, it's going to hurt if Fowler signs for 2/24 with Baltimore. As far as trades go, I'm just struggling to find good candidates that are left. The Rays make the most sense, but I think trading with the Rays is hard. I was listening to a Dave Cameron podcast the other day, and he was saying how his friends in front offices told him that the Rays will basically ONLY make a trade if they feel like they've clearly won the deal. Which, there can obviously be differences in talent valuation that make it so the other team likes the deal, but he said it makes execs second guess themselves and wonder what they're missing when the Rays feel like they're ready to move. Beyond that, I feel like the Dodgers route has been played out; if there was a deal there, it would have been made. Who else has spare depth to move? I guess the Reds, though I'm not sure I believe in Jay Bruce at this point.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 11:07 AM) I didn't realize I had to highlight what you ignored since you knew exactly what I was referring to, but anyways. I'm not an Avi supporter, but I do understand if the Sox can't find someone for their price then I think it makes sense to give Avi another go. He's a 24 year old with about 2 full season's worth of at bats, but has only played 1 full season in the majors. His defense sucks, but let's at least see if he can be a useful bat instead of jumping ship for a dumb contract. So if I was right, I didn't ignore anything, because I addressed it the very first post you quoted to begin this discussion. So what are you trying to say? Anyways I don't disagree with your argument conceptually -- like I said before, I believe Hahn has been wise in the past about walking away from valuable pieces when the price reaches a point that it erodes the value. Where I disagree is that the only option to replacing Avi was "a dumb contract." The reason I'm getting so worked up about RF specifically is because NONE of the contracts or trades that we've seen come to completion are "dumb." To the contrary they've all been "about right" at worst and "team-friendly" at best. The players that remain, according to rumor, are about to sign team-friendly deals as well. I go back to the Jose Abreu signing in my head. Before that, the biggest free agent contract in team history was Albert Belle's 5/55 in the late 90's -- meaning there was essentially NO precedent for the White Sox to open up the books for Abreu, and so it was a little difficult to believe it would happen. But it just made SO much sense as a baseball move. The team was forced into a "rebuild" but wanted it to go quickly, the team had practically no big money on the books, and the team's franchise icon at first (Konerko) was on his way out. The fit was ideal; more ideal that it was for any other team, and so it made sense to break the bank. And they did. That move made me confident that the front office was willing to buck its own "party line" when it made sense to do so, which is all anyone can really ask. I'm not going to re-list the reasons for the hundredth time, but buying a corner OF in this soft market made exactly the same kind of sense that the Abreu deal did. It's disappointing to me because the failure to make this move means either (1) I've overstated ownership's willingness to spend big money, even when it makes sense, (2) Hahn overplayed his negotiating hand, and simply dropped the ball at his favorite game, or (3) the White Sox still somehow believe in giving a large number of important ABs to Avisail Garcia, which, in my opinion, indicates a lack of understanding about their own ability to develop players that have tool but no semblance of baseball skills. I'd rather the explanation be #2, because if the dude just made a mistake, it's at least not indicative of a long-term issue. But in any case, it's a failure -- and it's one that carries a relatively good chance of having a substantial negative impact on the 2016 season. If they get Fowler or Jackson, it's a moot point. If Avi breaks out, this will look shrewd somehow. But those things are more likely NOT to happen than they are to happen, at this point, and so it worries me.

I think the Sox are very sensitive to their defensive challenges at this point. If whoever gets the most innings at SS is playing bad defense, it'll be because they're hitting the crap out of the ball enough to justify it, IMO. This isn't an exciting move, but it hedges against the risk of a terrible Saladino. It's a good depth move with a little upside.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 06:11 PM) I love how you read what you want to read and ignore other things that are stated. I think there is a very good chance an OFer is acquired before the season starts, like I stated...However, if things don't play out that way then they will be on the lookout for someone. There are also people out there, obviously not you, who have hopes that Avi can still become more than he is. I understand not wanting a gaping hole in RF, but I don't think Avi will be given a long leash if they don't replace him before the season starts. I missed the part where you highlighted something I ignored. If you're referring to the part where you said you think they'll still upgrade before OD, then I'll point out that you ignored the latter half of my original post, where I addressed just that. If Avi sucks like he always has, the team will be actively harmed until better options become available via trade, at which point they will be forced to give up a substantial amount of talent to acquire someone to improve the team for AT MOST half the season. Guys don't become available earlier than that. Since there are only about 4-6 true "sellers" at the deadline these days, prices will be high, as opposed to historically low like they are right now. If you believe in Avi, then by all means make an argument for Avi. But it doesn't make strategic sense to sit out a soft market on a weakness, only to instead improve on the weakness later when the cost is higher and you've already suffered the weakness for half or more of the season. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 06:14 PM) To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter. There's no incentive to pretend you're in the race for big free agents all winter only to disappoint everyone by letting them sign with your division rivals for less than anyone expected. The bottom line is that there were several major upgrades that were affordable. Either Hahn massively overplayed his hand, or the White Sox are a PR disaster and caulfield is actually right that they'll never spend any money. I want to believe that they WILL spend when it makes sense to do so, and I can't remember a situation where it made more sense than to do so here.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:19 PM) I am curious where we are finding OFs on the street that we don't have to pay for. Don't take the analogy TOO far. It wasn't my best work, lol. QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:26 PM) Yeah, which is why I'm surprised you were advocating Upton/Gordon/Cespedes earlier in the thread. By far the most obvious move imo, is Austin Jackson. Because a 4-win OF is that much better than a 2-win OF. I support the move to 2-wins because it's the best course remaining; but the going rate for 4-win guys was nice, especially since we signed literally zero mid-high dollar free agents this year, so it's hard to believe that money for one of those guys went somewhere else. QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:27 PM) Hahn is going to find an OFer to take at bats away from Avi. I don't think it will be a -1 WAR position in 2016. If the Sox don't upgrade the position before the season starts then I fully expect them to at the trade deadline if we are in contention for a playoff spot. Everyone is just mad bc it hasn't happened yet. I don't understand that line of thinking -- everyone agrees that this will be a hard fought division, and that if we win it, it's most likely going to come down to a few games. Playing a sub-replacement player for the first 4 months of the season could absolutely be the difference in a playoff spot. Further, if you don't HAVE to replace the RF at that point, you can instead work on shoring up a new problem that arose during the season.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:07 PM) Gordon wasn't going anywhere except staying with KC, Upton wanted nothing to do with the South Side, and the Cespedes situation was a mess. When it comes down to it, he got what he wanted from the Mets and that's why he stayed there. The fact that you think it would be easy to get any of these 3 is laughable. It would have been an overpay if we somehow acquired any of them. You are also not understanding my stance. I'm saying I fully expect them to sign an OFer still, but it will be when either the player accepts they won't get the offer they want, or if it is via trade it will be when that team is willing to pull the trigger. If it's the Dodgers or Rays it looks like they will eventually have to make a move from their crowded outfields. There hasn't been a layup massive upgrade out there that the Sox have passed on. They are obviously trying to improve the position and haven't found anything they liked enough to pull the trigger. The people that piss and moan that we haven't signed Jackson or Fowler yet, and think it's a failure simply because we haven't is a joke. Are they improvements? Yes. Do they take this team to the next level? No. When you're a .500 team in a division full of .500 teams, upgrading a -1.0 WAR to something like 2.0 WAR is exactly the type of move that takes a team to the next level.