Eminor3rd

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 12:15 PM) Only hits righty now (platoon with LaRoche instead?) Oh, my bad -- I thought it was the other way around (only hits lefty). So strike him from the list. QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Also, assuming Saladino could handle SS with solid defense, which is very likely, he'd have a much higher floor than Avi. Yep, exactly.

To me, Plan A is sign a full-time replacement for Avisail Garcia. This means Dexter Fowler or Austin Jackson. This is the shortest path to the largest improvement on the roster. Avisail Garcia can fight LaRoche and Cabrera for playing time -- if he's still got some upside in the tank, he'll still have an opportunity to show it. Plan B is Matt Joyce/Shane Victorino/Will Venable as a strong-side platoon partner for Avi. To me, Ian Desmond is outside of this discussion. I believe Ian Desmond becomes a player we should acquire if his price falls far enough, but I don't see it as an "instead of an OF" option. Garcia has been a sub-replacement level player and projects as a replacement-level player. The need to upgrade there remains whether or not you upgrade at SS first. The SS position is weak, but not nearly AS weak as RF, so it's a lower priority and one with fewer options, and one with options that come with high variance.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 30, 2016 -> 07:03 PM) How is Fowler in CF? Scouts love him; stats hate him.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 29, 2016 -> 05:40 PM) Absolutely agreed. Cespedes asking price and desire to stay in NY never made much sense for the Sox and yet fans want to blame the front office for not signing Cespedes. It's the fans fault for assuming the Sox would sign Cespedes, not the FO. It's not about Cespedes -- it's about getting a RF when the market was flush with RF options and their prices were low. They need to get ONE of them, and they've whiffed on them all so far.

Wow, they're high on Anderson.

The "answers" for the Sox in RF have all signed with other teams; Fowler is the best remaining "answer." They gotta get somebody.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 08:09 PM) He also said he had to talk to Avi after the rumors and they are "excited" to have him starting in RF. STOP IT ROBIN STFU

Look at our lineup right now. Look at the ZiPS projections article on FanGraphs. Assess and formulate where you think our team is. Think about our competition. Think about how Avisail's projected 0 WAR fits into the plan. Now tell me: Would you rather have Dexter Fowler in that lineup, or would you rather have an extra draft pick after the first round during the draft this year?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:42 AM) A month ago I was 100% confident Avi wasn't going to be the starting RF in 2016, but that confidence is eroding more and more every day. And that's with one of most favorable OF markets you're ever going to see. Same -- it just made TOO much sense.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:36 AM) It's time I change my signature lol At this point, I'd just roll with it if I were you. Might as well keep hope alive. Plus, it'll become ironic and funny at some point.

I'm getting anxious. I'm afraid we are not going to get anyone. I can't deal with another Avi season.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:43 AM) Some interesting choices there. Lots of FS videos and links to other FS content too - I'd say probably half the media links they use in total are from FS. Kind of surprised he didn't just reach out to us. In fact there are places in there where I get the feeling he may have just been reading our prospect profiles and re-stating some things. Maybe not though, it's hard to say that sort of thing because much of people's views on players will end up overlapping. Oh, I just assumed he DID reach out.

Farnsworth often comes up with rankings that deviate from status quo: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/ 1. Spencer Adams 2. Tim Anderson 3. Carson Fulmer 4. Adam Engel 5. Jordan Guerrero 6. Tyler Danish 7. Jacob May 8. Chris Beck 9. Corey Zangari 10. Trey Michalczewski 11. Eddy Alvarez 12. Jhoandro Alfaro 13. Jordan Stephens 14. Courtney Hawkins 15. Brian Clark 16. Jason Coats 17. Brandon Brennan 18. Micker Adolfo 19. Jake Peter 20. Andre Wheeler 21. Jace Fry 22. Robin Leyer 23. Thad Lowry Mentions: Danny Dopico, Johan Cruz, Amado Nunez, Nick Delmonico, Matt Davidson, Keon Barnum, Nolan Sanburn, Luis Martinez, Blake Hickman, David Trexler, Zach Thompson, Michael Ynoa. EDIT: Also, tons of FutureSox video featured!

I didn't want Fowler, but I'm not going to be upset if we sign him. If he has a typical season, he improves the team by two to three wins.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) Sometimes you take the good with the bad. Like Abreu. His defense isn't stellar. His point is that all of those guys are elite defenders.

Here's the thing about Desmond: if he didn't have warts, he wouldn't be available to us at all. The play on Desmond is that he's been a star player for a LOT longer than he's been a scrub since his breakout -- you pick him up hoping that his most recent crap-stretch was temporary and conveniently located right before he became a free agent. If you have reason to believe he's cooked, you leave him alone. but I don't think any of US have evidence to suggest either outcome is more likely. He have to trust (hope) that if the Sox get him, it's because they're evaluations say he's alright. But either way, we're not talking about paying him the $100m he'd have already secured if he just put up another 4-win season. His recent performance and draft pick compensation will be baked into the price he can command.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 06:38 PM) Scott Merkin trying to ring that they are potentially done bell again with his latest article. Also thinks that Garcia is going to surpass his projected WAR next year. ...of zero.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 04:41 PM) catcher position projected to be 3 WAR here https://twitter.com/cistulli/status/692087588992057344 That would be a boon, no doubt.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:38 PM) [/b] He averages about 2 WAR per year. I'd say that's a little better than average. He's just about to turn 30, too. He still has some good years left, plus the eye test tells me he's a bit better defensively than broken defensive metrics. Seconding shysocks -- 2 WAR is indeed precisely league average. It's easy to confuse "average" with "replacement level." You do have a point though, in that it is a mistake to assumethat an "average" player doesn't hold substantial value. MLB teams give just as much playing time to "below average" players as they do to "above average" ones.

The pick is just another part of the cost. Its loss will be reflected in the contract terms.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 11:17 AM) I really think people are overrating the Tigers. Even with Upton I don't see them as much more than an 81-84 win team right now. Neither are we, though. Having another team in the division that's equally as good is a substantial obstacle.

QUOTE (dasox24 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 02:30 PM) Great stuff. Very well done. QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:30 PM) BTW, that was a really good read, eminor. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:39 PM) Agree with everyone else, well done Eminor. You provided some very good insight to the potential upgrades as well as downgrades. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:20 PM) Very comprehensive piece. Love how you pointed out how the defensive values are so weird and drawing too many conclusions about them is subjective. You didn't just pick a side you took the time to point out every angle. Very well written also . Must have proof read it thoroughly. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 10:17 AM) Agree 100%. Excellent analysis. QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 11:23 AM) Great article! I wish more people would learn to write baseball articles with a clear depiction of the logic and thought process that goes toward the conclusions drawn. Well done. Thanks!

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:40 AM) I don't know if the prices were all that reasonable. Cespedes you would probably have to guarantee over $30 million and risk losing him for 1 season. Gordon wasn't leaving KC, and Upton, a guy I wanted, was signed by a team where money is no obstacle. If the Sox offered him 6 years $150 million, you don't really think Illich would have topped that? You may be right about being ultimately outbid on Upton, but I'd at least liked to have seen Illitch end up paying a price I WASN'T comfortable with. The fact that the "winning bid" was so reasonable just indicates that Sox weren't willing to submit a reasonable bid anyway. That's really the same way I feel about Gordon, too. He may have taken less to go to KC, but it seems unlikely he would have taken, say, $25-30m less. 5/100 would have been risky, but understandable and in-line with typical FA valuation. And yeah, Cespedes was always going to choose the Mets at those terms (3 year + opt out), but the fact that we spent all season dicking around with the three-year deal garbage is the only reason the Mets were even an option at the end. I think your point is that there were more factors at play than just money, and that some of these deals are more expensive than they look at first glance -- and I agree. But the fact remains that none of these teams needed a corner OF as badly as the White Sox*, and they all ended up with good options at solid prices. I think the Sox should have been more aggressive when the market was flush with supply, because that's when they actually had leverage. That way, they would have been the ones with the "deal to beat" as the agents scrambled to find other bidders late. With a reasonable bid on the table, other teams wouldn't have had the opening to "get creative" in the first place. We could have made the 5/110-ish offer to Cespedes before the Nationals even emerged, we could have made Illitch pay $160m instead of $130m, and showing Gordon a nine-figure offer might have been enough to fill our hole whilst also creating a big problem in KC's OF, which might have been enough to justify the slight overpay. EDIT: *Actually, the Royals totally did.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 09:32 AM) Gotcha. And Sale is a HUGE value... I'm not saying he's not. In terms of WAR $, he was +$43M last year. That's insane. My point was really about the Cubs swallowing their pride on guys like Schwarber and Soler and Baez.... I'd give em all up for Gray at minimum wage this year, and 4 years of team control. Anyways, back to the topic - I agree with others that I think I'd rather see Hahn explore trade options rather than sign Fowler. His OBP is nice, but the pick and his defense just don't justify the cost for me. If we're willing to continue to be lackluster in defense in the outfield, then I want to see a big power bat. Yeah -- all three of those players have very loud flaws. I think the Cubs know it, but honestly I think the reason a deal hasn't been done is that other teams know it, too. I think they've been trying to sell Baez as a premium prospect for years, while the rest of the league sees his value as the median of the superstar outcome and the complete failure outcome. RE: OF -- It's just going to be difficult to excuse the front office if they fail to SOMEHOW make a substantial upgrade over Avi. I think whiffing on all of those free agents was a huge mistake, because that represented several of the most effective options by far, and the prices were downright reasonable. I don't love Fowler either. Jackson is really more of a bounceback candidate than anything. The system is still weak enough that a major trade is going to have real implications on near-term depth, even if Hahn pulls another Frazier/Samardzija-style deal out of his ass. I don't know, I just don't feel great about the remaining options overall.

That Keon Barnum pick is looking so bad.