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QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 09:18 AM) Did not say Dunn was vastly better, just said he was better. Tyler's AVG/OBP/SLG right now stand .053/.060/.021 points higher than last season; if that is not a vast improvement, I don't know what is. Yes, and if balls hit to left field off KC pitchers are caught instead of going for doubles or runners hold at third instead of scoring on singles, that is valuable. Again, you're basically saying that WAR is bad because it doesn't seem to back up whatever feelings you already had. Whether or not Gordon is the third MVP isn't really the point. The defensive component of his WAR is the highest in baseball. That means he is doing something at an elite level and his WAR reflects that. The bolded is a straw man argument that I can't deal with. I think you have a misconception that people just look at WAR and rank the players by that list. The people who use it acknowledge its imperfections, which is why other stats come in as well. Great post with an excellent example of using numbers in context.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 9, 2014 -> 08:03 AM) I've seen enough of Beltre playing against the sox over the last few years to know he's a damn good defensive 3b. I saw enough of polanco when he was with the tigers and I can't imagine he's gotten better the last 4 years now that he's 38 years old turning 39 in 2 months. I'm not saying polanco is bad defensively, hell he's own gold gloves, but no way he's better than Beltre in my eyes How is this possibly a convincing argument that the metrics are wrong? You just said "I saw a guy play before and can't imagine he's gotten better the last four years" and passed it off like some kind of factual account of his defense. What if he got WAY better at reading pitches and positioning? What if continued practice made him an even more accurate thrower who made fewer mistakes? On the flipside, what if Beltre has just lost a step? Or maybe he's just having a worse year than usual on defense. Conflicting pre-determined opinions are not anything like evidence against statistical data. In fact, they happen to be exactly why we NEED the statistical data. You do not see any of these guys even remotely close to enough to be able to have an accurate account of their defense -- and that's nothing personal, it's true of all of us. Our brains lie to us, especially in extreme cases and especially when we see very little of something and try to generalize. There are several legitimate criticisms and limitations of the current crop of defensive metrics, but "to my eyes that can't be true" is NOT one of them.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 07:52 AM) http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-...bullpen-failure Can't even figure out what word he was trying to say...it's around the 1:20 mark "negative assesserations"? accesserations asseccerations....those aren't even words assertions...? Speaking of Sale, this scouting report from back in 2010 was pretty amusing to read. Claimed his fastball was only 90-92 then but COULD be a plus pitch, and then goes into long and detailed description of his mechanics and why he's so flawed and likely to be injured in the future. http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05...scouting-report Sounded like suserration. He was saying that he either did or didn't hear any "negative murmurs" from the crowd, lol. At the buzzer. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/susurration

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 07:03 AM) Well he tried to blow it in the first inning by calling for Jose Abreu to hit into a double play, but Jose didn't listen to him and hustled down the first base line. You have to wonder if Jose got the cold shoulder after that one. Tension in the dugout? Could Abreu request a trade? WHO WILL JERRY REINSDORF CHOOSE? Obviously his man, Robin. Abreu will be waiver traded this month. You heard it here first.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 01:28 AM) Pretty dumb move by Robin putting Adam effing Dunn in right field. He can't play outfield. Ridiculous. It's a good thing Dunn basically won the game with his 2 run homer, but still, it's dumb because Robin did it and he loses all of our games for us. I'm sure if you asked him about it, he'd say something dumb like "well we wanted to get Dunn's bat in the lineup against a soft-tossing right-hander." Pssh, when has that EVER worked? Except last night when it worked exactly. Just another example of RV making a right move that could have turned into a wrong move but didn't but should have to fit the narrative and getting LUCKY and should be FIRED.

Wouldn't be shocked to see him moved for cash considerations if he pitches ok for a couple games.

QUOTE (The Wiz @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 09:33 AM) I think the player they were looking at was Jason Castro. Flowers was just coming off of the absolutely brutal stretch he had, and it is noted in those leaked Astros trade talks that Hahn was extremely interested in Castro. Also, the Astros need to clear spots on their 40 man roster this offseason to protect some of their better prospects from getting snatched away in the rule V, so I could surely see how the Astros could be a willing trade partner. Yeah, that seems to be the most realistic guess so far, I think.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 10:27 AM) You would have to figure Butler's option isn't getting picked up. But if the Royals make the playoffs, sometimes teams are more reluctant to let people go. That's an interesting question. Moore has shown no inclination to cut anyone who he thinks might be reasonably productive. But will Moore have a job? If they miss the playoffs he might be fired and then anything goes and I'd guess they would decline the option. But if they make the playoffs you figure he'd keep his job and might not want to lose Butler if he doesn't have a better option in the wings. Then there's also the "fan favorite" component. Yeah, interesting situation.

QUOTE (The Wiz @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 10:21 AM) Excuse me, where did I say any of that? I was just saying it shouldn't take gigabytes of data to prove something as simple as good offensive players will score runs and bad ones won't. That's not what we're talking about though -- it was that the lineup optimization (when comparing non-ideal "traditional" choices versus optimum choices) isn't enough to outweigh that principle in any significant manner. It was a reasonable hypothesis that it could, and one that would have had huge implications. So it did need a lot of research to be put into it.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) Sorry, Butler has been a better player then Dunn the past 4 seasons. This year Butler has had a down year though but Butler is a much more complete player then Dunn at the plate. Butler is actually capable of hitting good pitching, something I have pretty much zero faith in Dunn doing. Not by as much as you'd think, though, and Butler is definitely the one in a tailspin at the moment. Also, Butler would have to be acquired via trade. I don't think we should re-sign Dunn, I just wanted to point out that Billy Butler is a lot worse than the Soxtalk collective currently thinks, it seems.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 10:09 AM) Funny I thought this was a rebuilding year. He wasn't going to be traded so he's pretty useless for a rebuild, He's not young nor does he need AB's to develop so pretty useless for a rebuild. He's well paid, set up for life while getting to retire 25 yrs. before a working stiff. He'll get a statue most likely and he gets to go out on his terms ? Most of us would've just liked it if he didn't take up valuable space on this years roster. It has nothing to do with the enjoyment of his fine career. This was a year for youth and speed and athleticism to be served , to building for the future. Paulie contributed nothing to those things so some us question how dedicated Hahn might be to a rebuild if he can appear to not care about every spot on the 25 being used to achieve his goal. He's been extremely well compensated for his efforts. Go for a rebuild with every resource you have or I can't take you seriously. There's only so much time Sox fans will have patience for a last place low payroll team but might have a little more if they feel the effort from the front office is pure. PK already has all of what most of us have to break our backs for. He didn't have to stand in the way of progress also. I'd be upset about it if it turned out that it mattered. But it hasn't, so it's a waste to stress out over it, IMO. PK got his "one more year," and it didn't cost us much anything. Maybe his leadership helped a bit. He certainly protected Dunn against lefties, which, we hoped would help us trade him, but it didn't. Oh well.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 03:51 PM) There is an actual problem with Connor 2nd as the lineup is currently constructed. L - Eaton. L - Gillaspie. Righty, righty, righty, righty, righty, righty, righty. Perfect setup for a bullpen to devastate the team with specialists. I always thought this was overlooked. In that other thread where we talked about lineup: the distribution of talent has shown not to make a huge difference, but I think the handedness is a much bigger factor. I love the idea of alternating when possible, and I'd probably set the lineup like this: L Eaton R Ramirez L Dunn R Abreu L Gillaspie R Viciedo L De Aza R Flowers R Beckham You can swap Dunn and Gillaspie if you want to be more traditional; I tend to favor the Tom Tango model that argues low contact HR threats should be third and higher contact hitters should be fifth, but it's splitting hair either way. With Eaton on the DL, I'd probably go: R Ramirez L Gillaspie R Abreu L Dunn R Viciedo L De Aza R Flowers R Beckham S Garcia

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 09:38 AM) It amazes me that intelligent posters are so gullible, constantly arguing with the people who take the most ridiculous stances and make the most over the top statements. I could understand if they made points where you could make a counterpoint. But the hook is just thrown in the water without bait and so many people bite on it. Well, I think you just made a pretty good description of what a message board is on a very basic level. So maybe none of us are that smart to begin with

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 02:24 AM) Why in the heck would Sox re-sign Dunn? He's not been productive. If the Sox want to keep rebuilding and losing they could see if Dunn would DH for 4-5 million a year. What's the purpose though. You get 50 RBIs maybe all year? Stupid. If you are gonna do that, sign another plodder, Billy Butler for 7 million and see if he can reinvent himself. If not, he's as slow as Paulie and Dunn so we have our next plodder. 2014 Adam Dunn: 114 wRC+ 2014 Billy Butler: 96 wRC+ Career Adam Dunn: 123 wRC+ Career Billy Butler: 118 wRC+

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 08:13 AM) I love people are now being sarcastic with their "Robin is so bad" jokes that they're almost implying that he isn't bad. I'm not sure what games you guys are watching, but the dude is clearly a bad in-game manager. I'm not holding the lack of talent against him and I'm sure as hell not going with the ridiculous Balta argument that a lack of fundamentals in spring training carried over the entire season. He simply makes bad decisions on a regular basis. I'm not going to provide a bunch of examples either, although I'm sure Dick Allen will request. Robin might be worse than average, but let's be honest, this isn't a thread about him being anywhere in the realm of acceptable: this is the thread called "Is Robin the Worst Manager in the HISTORY of MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL?" and it includes several examples of posters claiming that, with a better manager, our team would be in FIRST PLACE. It includes several other references claiming that, with a different manager, our team would be a shoe-in for one of the Wild Card berths. It has posters honestly watching games, looking at the roster, and claiming that a different manager would be able to coax OUR BULLPEN into success. It has posters blaming defensive errors on Robin Ventura, poorly executed bunts on Robin Ventura, the role of freaking Paul Konerko on Robin Ventura. It has poster blaming the entirety of the person named ALEJANDRO DE AZA on Robin Ventura. That's what this thread is. And this thread is a joke.

Another bonehead move by Robin Ventura last night: the team didn't even play! You want to talk about ruining everything? By neither winning nor losing, RV somehow blew a chance to (1) get a game closer in the 2nd wild card and (2) improve the Sox' draft pick next year. At this point, Juan Pierre would be a better choice as manager. #FIREROBIN #WORSTMANAGERINHISTORYOFBASEBALL #FIRSTPLACEUNDERADIFFERENTMANAGER #LASTPLACEUNDERADIFFERENTMANAGER

QUOTE (The Wiz @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) Am I the only one a bit disturbed by the fact it took much statistical analysis of lineups for this to be proven? Yes, you are. Why wouldn't managers want to know if optimizing their lineup could help them get significantly more out of their players?

No one would take that contract? Seriously? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/curt...le-waivers.html

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 06:26 AM) What exactly is not much of a difference? QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 07:15 AM) I don't remember the exact numbers, but the difference between the least optimized lineup and the most optimized lineup is like 20-30 runs, which is 2-3 wins in a context neutral setting, and much of that difference can be cancelled out by dumb luck, which you cannot control for in any setting. And I believe that is almost always the difference. If you have good hitters, you'll score runs no matter how the lineup is set, and if you have bad hitters, you won't score runs, no matter how the lineup is set. Right. Basically, there are two reasons why it doesn't matter much: 1. Even a "traditional" lineup is only a few spots different than a proper, ideal lineup. The 2-3 wins difference comes when you compare the ideal lineup with like the worst possible one, with a pitcher batting fourth, etc. 2. Players are so random with when they perform, that batter and run sequencing is completely unpredictable. The best leadoff hitters in the game get on base about 10% more than the worst, Will that 1 time in ten fall when your clean up hitter is going to hit a double? Sometimes. But your bad leadoff hitter might happen to get on base in more opportune times just by chance. Don't get me wrong -- I believe in giving yourself the best chance possible, even when the improvements are incremental. But like wite said: at the end of the day, your hitters are gonna hit or not. And the difference is small enough that you could make an argument that the psychological effects of hitters "feeling comfortable" in their roles or not could outweigh the benefits or trying to line up your performance sequencing. So because it's probably a wash, I generally just give the manager the benefit of the doubt, assuming he's using the lineup as a component of his clubhouse psyche. Like, maybe Leury feels frustrated that he hasn't had a chance to play regularly, and now that Eaton is on the DL, RV is putting him in the leadoff spot where he feels like he has his best chance to succeed with his tools, and where he feels like he's being giving a shot to play an important role in keeping the team in the conversation for the wild card spot. If that's true and that's what motivates Leury, the mental edge will outweigh the disadvantage of not having the lineup right.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 8, 2014 -> 04:29 PM) So if we picked him up, the only way to keep him next year would be to offer him arbitration which would probably involve a 20% raise because arb usually does, meaning that he'd cost us $5 million next year to keep? That seems ugh. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 8, 2014 -> 05:05 PM) He will be non tendered. It is amazing how other teams' crap looks so good. If you absolutely must have him, sign him when he's non tendered. He sucks so bad now, 2 contending teams want no oart of him. If he isn't worth the $5m, you just non-tender him. The reason other teams' crap looks so good right now is because we have the worst bullpen there is. I say take a flyer on the guy because he has a good arm and has been good before, so you might catch lightning in a bottle. And then you have someone for 2015

lol

Why are we getting so worked up over this? It doesn't matter. His presence on the team has neither helped nor hurt our chances of winning this year. What should we have done with the roster spot? Parked Marcus Semien on the bench?

Bullpen is so bad that we're better off without even having a left-hander -- in an era where optimizing bullpen platoon matchups can produce per-inning results similar to elite starters. Yeah, this is Robin Ventura's fault.

QUOTE (Brian @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 05:27 AM) I'm not a fan of Robin as a manager. I doubt he'd be able to take this squad to the next level. That said, not his fault the bullpen blows and Eaton gets hurt. Wish he'd realize that Leury should never bat lead off, despite not having many other options. Pretty much EVERY manager is bad at lineups. Fortunately, studies show that they don't make much of a difference. I used to stress out about lineups, but it just doesn't matter enough to worry about.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Aug 10, 2014 -> 01:13 PM) Don't the Angels have a tv deal like the Dodgers coming up soon? If so, money won't be a problem for them. They were already looking for pitching before this news. Just because you have money doesn't mean you should waste money.