Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) No you can't. But generally if you are banking on someone's slump ending because they are being promoted to the major leagues, you are going to be dissappointed. Guys generally do get called up when they are going well. Right, because good performance also correlates with "figuring something out." I'm just saying there isn't value to a callup just because of a hot hand. You need more information than any of us are privy to in order to identify if a player has taken a stride forward versus just "seeing the ball well." I would have some killer hot streaks in Legion too, but there weren't any D1 colleges making recruiting calls because anyone could see that I was undersized and unathletic. A longer look would reveal that I was guessing right on fastballs a lot and as soon as I saw anything resembling a slider, I was fooled every time. I never figured the slider out, though I did have some streaks where I was able to track it enough to shank a few in. Those streaks weren't predictive because they weren't the result of any change I was making.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) It'll be literally impossible for us to lose this game. Our chances of winning are actually over 100% Especially now that they lost Sam Fuld

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 11:52 AM) Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting. Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck. I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day. If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level."

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) I remember writing that Hahn had the easy part of the rebuild done. He traded pieces that had value for other younger pieces that had value. The hard part was always going to be finishing the job. Hahn badly needed Beckham to show he had value , same goes for Paulino, De Aza, Viciedo and Davidson but they all failed and he couldn't trade any value without just creating another hole. QFT

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) You have been saying he is a declining asset for a couple years. Eventually you will be correct, but he's a nice guy to have around now. Again you misunderstand and make it sound like I have been falsely saying he's bad for years, which is not true. I love Alexei and have always been a champion for him. He is good now, will be declining/have declined when we really need to have solid production from SS, in a year or two. Since we have a ton of guys ready to try the position, he has to go. If for no other reason than we need to get his replacement some ABs and development time. Also because we still have a lot of holes to fill and have to move someone to get talent back.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:46 PM) Sgt Slaughter is all skiunny now though. He's also Canadian. He could be your manager, that's fine, I will find Captain Lou Albano if he isn't dead yet (is he dead?) and he will have a parrot & Marty & I will use this parrot to kick your asses in the script! He told me he was from Minnesota, so... wait, yeah I guess that's Canada. He is still very large, though.

We don't want Papelbon -- he's a total jerk and would probably block the trade anyway. Marlon Byrd actually has value, Ruben Amaro is clinically insane, and Byrd said he'll only allow a trade is his option is exercised. There's Ethier, but we need a bad pitcher more than bad OF.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) Amazing that people pencil in Viciedo and Flowers again but give up Ramirez like he's trash. Alexei's value won't be fully understood until he's gone. Alexei isn't trash. He's a declining asset that has trade value and he plays the position the we're deepest in in the upper minors. He's a perfect candidate to be traded.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) Why do you have to say these things? Why? If Marty34 ever comes back here then he & I will form a tag team & will fight you guys (you & wite) for real pro-wrestling style and you guys will have to lose it will be in the script. I met Sgt. Slaughter last night at our game and he was nice and I bet he would help us! He is a big man and I bet he would stand up for the rights for other big men to play shortstop!

I don't see why we can't give Dunn a qualifying offer and then try HIM at shortstop.

The catcher position needs to be addressed both in the long and short term. Short: I am and will continue to be in favor of going hard after Russell Martin. I would love to give him a three year deal in the $8m-12m/year range, and I MIGHT be able to be convinced to go to four years. I sign him with the expectation that his bat will not kill me at any point in the contract, and that he will provide above average defense and game-calling through the course of the deal. This will stop the bleeding and give me time to fix the C problem in the system. If I can't manage to get Martin at a price I can handle, I sign the best end-of-the-line veteran backup type on as short a deal as possible and promise him the inside track to a starting job assuming I can't manage to make a trade for a young, MLB-ready stud. In this instance, Flowers would serve as the backup. If I even tender a contract to Flowers. It may be more valuable to give Phegley another shot. Nieto goes to AA. Long: I am trading Alexei Ramirez to the Yankees and I am demanding the best C prospect I can get. A name that I'm targeting that is under the radar is Luis Torrens, who is currently tearing up the NYPL and has recently snuck into the back end of some Yankees prospect lists as a result. I admit to some bias as I've watched him regularly this year (I work for his team). He's 18 years old and just snapped a 21 game hitting streak during which he looked really, really ready to move up. I have no idea how to evaluate most of his defense, but he's made some really killer throws that are both accurate and strong. He's a few years away, but he's got a chance to be an all-around contributor. Interesting enough, the other best hitter on his team is also a catcher, Isaias Tejeda who is old for the level (22 in short season A), but has really broken out this year. They've been sharing C and DH duties to keep the bats in the lineup. Not sure if Tejeda is legit or just beating up on younger kids, but I bet he could come as a throw-in to any deal. I'm going to apologize in advance now for the fact that I'm going to beat the drum for Torrens all the way up until Alexei is moved, because I think Alexei is the perfect fit for the Yankees and they're the only team in the majors who has this many catching prospects.

I'm disappointed that Hahn didn't pull some magical s*** out of a hat, but I'm not surprised at all. We didn't have anything good to sell except Alexei, and there aren't any contenders that need a SS. If there's something to be disappointed about, it's that all of the guys that could have been good pieces had horrible seasons. But it's not all bad -- we do have good players, after all, it's just that we've done a good job at locking them up contractually so that they AREN'T trade bait. I forget which podcast I was listening to, but the speaker was making an argument that it was a very weak buyer's market by listing the types of guys that were realistically available, team by team. When he got to the White Sox, he said, "You can have any White Sock (sic) you want -- except the good ones." And I think there's a lot of truth in that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) When guys are hot at the plate, there is a far better chance they will have some success when they get called up than guys who are presently struggling. This, because hitting is not just physical, can lead to an increase in confidence which can traslate to success. Guys struggle at first and have big careers. Guys start out on fire and fizzle. I get that. But I would rather have a guy seeing the ball really well at the time of his promotion. BTW, if Marcus Semien has nothing left to learn, he is going to be a HOFer. I'm not saying Marcus doesn't have anything left to learn, I'm just saying that him having a hot ten days is not the sign that he's ready. I think there's something to his confidence maybe being up if he's called up when he's hot, but the problem with "when he's seeing the ball well" is that guys are in that mode until they suddenly aren't, and there's just no way to tell when that will stop. It's literally no more likely a "hot" guy will get a hit in his next at bat than a "cold" guy, assuming of course that you control for talent. Now, if a guy has suddenly mastered something he's been working on, an improvement at the plate can be a by-product of course, but that's what you need the evaluators for, because they know what he's trying to do and they'll know why he's successful or not. Simply that he's been "seeing the ball well" doesn't translate even from day to day, let alone from league to league. Next time he gets hot though, I don't think there's any way we will be able to tell if it's because of a mechanical or approach tweak. We just have to trust the staff.

Hot/cold streaks aren't predictive at all. You need the coaching staff to evaluate whether or not a guy needs work or has nothing left to learn.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 01:24 PM) LOL, where is that guy that was saying Danks is a solid 3rd starter? Regression, thy name is John Danks. One of the worst starters in baseball this year. It's alright, this is a bad start but if you remove all his bad starts, his numbers look really decent.

Wtf is he even doing? EYE could hit these balls out of the park.

QUOTE (The 815 @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) As mentioned in the Danks thread, Oakland is "flooded" with calls for Hammels. Hammels put up good numbers with the Cubs but has been hot garbage since the trade. Any chance a De Aza for Hammels trade could work for both teams? Oak could want the added bat for a platoon and the Sox could try Hammels out and see if he could work to break up the lefties in the rotation next year. If teams are flooding the A's with calls, the A's are not going to decide that they should trade Hammel for De Aza.

He should be worth several top prospects

This is why no one wants him

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 08:02 AM) Wow! If A's don't resign Lester that's an awful deal for them IMO. Sounds like Cespedes fell out of favor, most recently by refusing to shift to CF to cover Crisp's injury.

I can actually squint and see a Miami connection. They have been publicly braying that they want to "add, not subtract." They have one of the lowest payrolls in the league and are oft-cited as consistently being among the most profitable organizations. As such, they are constantly under pressure to invest more resources to raise payroll and act competitive. If they want to make it appear as though this si what they're doing, picking up a market-rate asset like Danks fits the bill because they have to give up little in return, and many have speculated that it's a tough case for them to make to get market-rate players to sign there. Adding a $14m/yr starter makes their payroll look better on paper, and Danks has just enough name value for them to spin the PR to the casual fan (lol, "Marlins fan") that they're being aggressive in improving the club without sacrificing the future; that ownership was willing to pony up the cash to make an upgrade that doesn't hurt the system.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jul 30, 2014 -> 09:35 PM) John Danks lhp 5 years/$65M (2012-16) 5 years/$65M (2012-16) signed extension with Chicago White Sox 12/23/11 (avoided arbitration) $7.5M signing bonus (paid between 6/12 and 10/12) 12:$0.5M, 13:$14.25M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.25M, 16:$14.25M full no-trade clause for 2012 may block trades to six clubs annually for 2013-16 (for 2014, no-trade list includes Baltimore, Oakland, Toronto and Washington) 2 more unknown teams in Danks' NTC So it's really more like 32-33m

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 30, 2014 -> 08:48 PM) Teams aren't trying to acquire surplus value at the deadline, they're trying to acquire production. Obviously financial elements come into play, but the market price for starting pitching goes up significantly at the deadline, both due to a limited supply of starters being available and the marginal value of each win increasing. The Yankees aren't going to wait until the offseason to fill a need they have now. If Danks is the best guy available that doesn't cost any top prospects, my guess is that they'll be willing to give us a minor piece and take on most of his salary. That would obviously be an overpay in the offseason, but it's the price of doing business at the end of July. The Sox have some leverage here because they don't have to move Danks and Yankees just may be desperate for a starting pitcher. We still seem to disagree but the bolded is something I agree with completely.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 30, 2014 -> 04:20 PM) No you are not. You are asking for the value of the player. Any surplus value in the contract drives up the expected value of the player. There are no market rate assets available at the trade deadline, that is why the Sox have leverage now to deal Danks. You do give up value to get a guy that is paid what he is worth, that is the point of making a trade, to plug a piece of value into your team to try and win baseball games. There is also value in having cost certainty and a certain number of holes filled going into free agency. Surplus value is a nice thing to have in a trade, but that is not what teams are trading for, they are trading for baseball players to help them make the playoffs. The Yankees want Danks because they need a pitcher, but they will be willing to give up talent based on the market value of the asset. The price the player demands is determined by surplus value. Whether they like it or not, the Yankees are not just buying Danks this year, they're buying him the next two and half years. The Sox have no leverage because no one else wants Danks at a higher rate. If the Sox don't cave, the Yanks just get a different mediocre pitcher that doesn't comes with $38m attached. This is EXACTLY why prospects are valued so highly -- the massive potential for surplus value over the life of their pre-free agency contracts. If teams acted like you're describing, they'd give up any minor leaguer for any major leaguer that could contribute.