Eminor3rd

0-1 fWAR players aren't "huge upgrades" over anything.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 03:46 PM) MLB Trade Rumors ‏@mlbtraderumors 2h Indians “Very Willing” To Trade Justin Masterson http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/?p=40180 That's like us being willing to move Beckham "in the right deal."

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 03:13 PM) It's funny how far some people will go to mock or disagree withy greg rather than actually admit they are in agreement with him. BTW where the f*** is Matry? You guys do this stuff to hima ll the time too. Also I agree with the pares about hippos & all the pqarts about hippos. Thank you have a nice fday., Greg started it! Wite said that Beckham wasn't the biggest bust in franchise history because he actually managed to hold down a job in the MLB for a while, whereas many other high draft choices never even made it that far. Instead of reading anything, greg saw that wite had said something NOT negative about Beckham, and goes "well the SABR guys think Beckham is good, wtf is up with that?" So then we decided to see how long it would take for greg to actually read a post.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 26, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) Caufield, you are a reasonable mind. What do you say to the metrics that indicate Gordon is a damn fine ballplayer? My eye test has told me otherwise. Greg, you have to understand GPx99+, which factors in simulated metrics based on imagination. Basically, what would Beckham produce on a context neutral environment if we has credited with the runs he was "willing" to produce? Then, consider a typical aging curve, temper that with what you think his favorite color says about his personality type, and then scale it to 100. It's park-adjusted, league-adjusted, and bias-adjusted. GPx99+ has Beckham at 82.12, which is roughly equivalent to 3 imagination wins above what you'd expect if a hippo played the position. That's a B- ballplayer no matter how you want to slice it.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:47 AM) I think you need to read the defences more carefully I don't think anyone actually reads what we write anyway.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:57 AM) Steverson is getting a lot of credit, but what does the White Sox offense look like without Eaton and Abreu? Pretty bleak if you were to ask me. He would be considered just another stooge. I have no idea how much a hitting coach helps or hurts -- I suspect it's a lot less than we like to think. That said, I liked the lip service from Steverson regarding forcing pitchers to come to your zone much, MUCH better than I liked Manto's bit about expanding the zone for the sake of RBIs. Don't get me wrong, I get where the latter makes sense in situations where simply putting the ball in play is the primary goal -- but those situations, IMO, are much rarer than we like to think, and I think that attitude can get our young hitters into bad habits. If it's a tie game and there's a runner on third with less than two outs, then sure, slap at it outside to get it in the air the other way somehow. But in most conditions, I want our hitters to understand that they'll do more damage by getting themselves into a hitters count and forcing the pitcher to throw something that can be barreled up. It didn't seem like ANYONE was doing that (except Konerko) when Manto was around -- there was even that month where he got Dunn to swing at everything. Maybe they were all destined to be hacks with or without Manto, and maybe the hitters are just more talented now that Steverson is here. Distinct possibility on both accounts. But the results have absolutely lined up with the philosophies on both accounts so far.

If the Yankees would give us JRM/Sanchez/O'Brien for Danks, we'd have done it already.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 02:53 PM) I'll get back to you on that. Seriously, I will. Heading off to an actuarial exam now. Enjoy the day. Good luck on that!

The biggest difference, IMO, between Kershaw and Sale/Hernandez is HR/FB%. Kershaw's is right around his career average, while Sale/Hernandez's are substantially lower than their respective averages. It's likely that both Sale and Hernandez will see some regression here at some point, which would widen the gap between them and Kershaw.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 02:50 PM) League-adjusted yes, but these are still relatively blunt instruments. When you actually dig into the formulation of the metrics, you realize that not every single aspect is being accounted for. Which aspects aren't?

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:16 AM) We're talking about a difference of ~3K, so a bit hyperbolic on the first bolded. Second bolded is simply wrong - ADA's DP rate is ~4 times as high as TF over the past year (the advantage of being a K machine, I suppose). 450 points of OPS easily trumps all this anyway, sorry. Sample size and an overemphasis on recent results are the only legit arguments on your side. Feel free to make them, but we're never going to agree that hitting ADA there was the right move. You don't have to agree that it was the right move. I'm just saying it's defensible, and it is. Flowers slow, De Aza fast. Flowers strikes out more than anyone else in the entire league. De Aza strikes out at a league average rate. It's an arguable position, even if you disagree. Therefore, this "RV is worst ever manager" stuff is overblown. That's all I'm trying to say.

Kershaw is better, guys. It's okay, Sale doesn't have to be literally the best on the planet to be our hero.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:13 AM) I think Danks is a better pitcher than his peripheral stats indicate, but agree that he's a fairly average to slightly below average pitcher. I think there's a market for him, but the Sox won't get a lot if they move him. My questions arise in why the Yankees would be interested in him. Maybe they feel he'll play well in their park, but his peripherals are poor and the Yanks have been acquiring guys based on peripherals a lot more this year. I'm guessing it's because they have already decided they are bargain-bin shopping and won't give up a real prospect, and everyone else is asking for a real prospect. Danks remains the best possible option for taking cash instead of giving up talent. Either way, we're not getting anything nice for him, because by eating most of his contract, we'd be getting him to what he SHOULD be paid based on his performance. When teams get talent back by taking money, it's because they're able to create surplus value with the contract of the player being moved. There's no surplus value available in the Danks situation. There are a lot of dudes making league minimum that can put up a 4.50 ERA.

If it happened, it would be the first time. It won't be any of the big three, though.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) 63% is a little low, but my gut tells me it's not far off from being worthwhile to steal in today's environment. The 75% threshold that we've all engraved into our brains was from an offensive environment that was incredibly different from today's where runs were a lot easier to come by and base runners getting out was one of the worst things you could do. Now playing for one run is much more valuable (though it still does not make the sacrifice bunt worthwhile unless you are playing for 1 run and the runner is on 2B with nobody out and the guy at the plate is not a very good hitter). Someone re-ran it a couple years ago, and it was right around 71%, I believe. Probably safe to assume 70% now.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:43 AM) 450 points of OPS. Four hundred and fifty. Tyler was a better option. Anyone can cherry pick here. I'll take my cherries over yours. You're taking the argument backward two steps. As I said before: non-DP contact was a more important outcome than a hit at the time. Tyler Flowers was much more likely to strike out and much more likely to hit into a DP. If you still think Flowers was the right option, I can totally respect that. I'm just saying that there is a legitimate argument to use De Aza, which makes Ventura's move NOT insane-o-pants like people are saying, even if you'd ultimately have acted differently.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:47 AM) Vs. a lefty with a sweeping breaking ball? no. The pitch ADA struck out on was two feet outside. Same pitch might have hit TF on the ankle, tying up the game. Only half-joking here. Flowers has struck out 36% of the time against lefties this year, 35% overall. De Aza 31% vs lefties, 22% overall. And if you're talking about hindsight versus the specific final pitch of De Aza's at bat, you must now admit that we are way, way beyond talking about managerial strategy.

106 wRC+ from the left side with scratch defense in CF? I'm thrilled, especially because I think he still has upside.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) Tyler was the clear choice to PH for De Aza. Despite having a lousy year, and small sample sizes, granted, he's OPSing 450 points better than ADA vs. lefties. And he's currently a "hot" bat, regardless of the reasons or their validity. Two batters ahead of DeAza I noted that Tyler should hit for him if it came to that. Yes, the players failed, inexcusably. Yes, many other changes are also needed. Frustration with players does not excuse Robin's incompetence. Tyler may have been more likely to get a hit there, but he was also way more likely to strikeout and way more likely to hit into a DP.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) Hey just because someone at the beginning of the thread said worst manager ever do not apply it to everyone else who thinks Robin isn't a good manager. Sorry. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) Also don't throw out a stat that some of us still don't comprehend fully like wRC+. I do know Sierra was at .233 against RH's and De Aza .083 this year. It's basically a summary stat that factors OBP and SLG components in so it isn't just AVG. It's scaled so that 100 is league average and each point represent a percentage point above or below. So 47 and 60 are super, super bad. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) The last thing the Sox needed out of De Aza was a K or DP . The RH vs LH match up at least cuts down on the K odds.The only thing you need to know is THIS YEAR not career De Aza sucked against LH's . Of course Sierra or Flowers was a better choice. There is no MAYBE about it. I'm not sure this is true. There's a lot of research that indicates that career stats are substantially more predictive than season stats, no matter where the AB in question falls in terms of a hot or cold streak. Given that De Aza's career wRC+ against lefties is identical to Sierra's, but over a much, much larger sample, it seems to me that it was probably pretty close to a wash. Certainly, it's within the realm of "maybe." QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) The significant difference you talk about between Sierra and Konerko doesn't even matter if Leury does not score 1st. Increase the odds of Leury scoring is the numero uno priority in that situation. Of course, but the point is that the difference between Sierra and De Aza is at least arguably negligible. Also, keep this in mind: the most important thing in the situation was NOT necessarily a hit, but rather contact. De Aza is a career 20% K guy (22% this year) where Sierra is a career 26% K guy (26% this year). I'm sure Robin didn't have those K percentages in his head at the time, but he very possibly trusted De Aza to get a bat on the ball more than he trusted Sierra to do so. THEN factor in the fact that the advantage on the bases is a component, and it doesn't sound like a horrible decision to me. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) I am not going to take up the cross for the anti Robin guys here. I think most of them are reasonable and objective with their opinions and not looking to blame Robin but just observing the game as it happens. Robin's job is to increase the odds of success and lessen the odds of failure. He made good moves last night but also bad or if you prefer questionable ones. And similarly, I'm not trying to make Robin out like a genius, I just think that the move we're talking about here (and many others in previous games) are at least defensible moves -- nothing like bone-headed fireable offenses that it seems like people are making them out to be. I'm not saying Robin is awesome, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest that he's taking wins away from the players. He may have made a few mistakes, but they're digging their own graves from what I can see.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 05:30 AM) Dude you're preaching to the choir. I know he's a bad hitter I was only saying that IF he hits well for the rest of the season it would certainly make me rethink his suckiness. Isn't that true of literally every player in the MLB, though?

AL CY, I believe, is Felix's to lose. If he gets roughed up for a few starts and Sale stays good, I think Sale has a real shot.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 01:10 AM) "John Danks is bad. He's not worth anything, even if the White Sox pick up almost all of the contract." -Dave Cameron on 7/23/14 I think that was his response to my comment asking about Danks' maximum trade value

So Robin is the worst manager ever because he didn't save Moises Sierra for a pinch hitting situation. Moises Sierra, who has a 47 wRC+ this season, 60 wRC+ against lefties. De Aza is having a really bad year, but in his career vs. lefties he has an 85 wRC+. Was Sierra a better choice? Maybe, but you could argue either way. Regardless, it sounds like the difference between fighting a bear using a spork or a toothpick. Given the relatively even odds of failure with each batter at the plate, is it not at least defensible to at least make sure the runner on second would score on a base hit? At least there's a significant difference between Sierra and Konerko on the basepaths -- I'm not sure there really was one between De Aza and Sierra at the plate. At the end of the day, the team had a runner on third with no outs and couldn't manage to tie the game. A complete failure of the players on the field.

Lol, best record in baseball without Robin. Jesus