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Everything posted by Eminor3rd
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QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:25 AM) If the Sox could actually get Victor Sanchez for Viciedo I would love that move. That was my reaction, too.
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We need every remotely decent RP arm we can get at this point. Given the returns wouldn't be big anyway, I think we should hoard rather than trade.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 08:11 AM) Because he would fit a need perfectly. An OF of Pederson, Eaton, and Garcia is cheap and has a ton of upside to contribute to the offensive core for the next 5 years. Right but why would the Dodgers ever trade him? There's been no indication of him being available at all, and most of the reason Dodger OF trades come up in the first place is because they want to move someone expensive to make ROOM for Pederson.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) You've made a very poor case here. If given the choice between Kemp and giving up Viciedo or having $50 million to spend on generic FA to fill positional needs I'm clearly leaning the latter. That's fair. Like I said, I'm not sure I'd like it either, I just think there's enough there to think about it. Again, predicated on the fact that there's a decent chance Kemp could actually "return to form" if healthy. But if it came down to us spending $50m on this or, say, Russell Martin, I'll take Martin every time.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 07:37 AM) Matt Kemp has put up a .269/.329/.414/.743 line over the past 2 years, has played poor defense, has become an injury prone player, and he's due $107 million from 2015 through 2019. There's virtually no difference between Matt Kemp and Dayan Viciedo except that Viciedo has youth on his side. Well, and that he's two years removed from an MVP-level campaign. Dayan's "platform" season, on the other hand, was the one where he hit 25 homers and still somehow managed not to touch 100 wRC+. I'm not saying we should get him, but if a couple plausible conditions were met, it might be worth considering because it is indeed an upside play: (1) we believe that he is fully healthy (or soon to be) for the first time since his success, and (2) the Dodgers are willing to make him into a $50m investment (instead of $107m) and only ask for a few "interesting flyer" types of prospects. Something like Snodgress, Wendelken, and a random. Ideally, this would correspond with a "change of scenery" trade that got rid of Viciedo and/or De Aza. You'd stick him in LF from day one and enjoy a rather nice defensive upgrade from those two guys (he's miscast in CF, but we have Eaton), and if he has trouble staying healthy, it's the perfect opportunity to shift into the A's-style rotating DH model (with the departures of both Dunn and Konerko) where we essentially carry 4 starting OFers and give them all plenty of rest. Now, it would be a tremendous risk that I'm not even sure I'd take, but it does make some sense to consider given that we have few high payroll commitments and don't seem to be great fits with any big free agents coming soon.
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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 07:17 AM) Also if w're talking about small finds here that turned into something much bigger, the same guy who found & recommended Mark to us also found a guy named Albert Pujols who of course we didn't draft. I'm sure there are lots of others but IIRC Pujols went 5th round or later, so that one kind of hurts. I think he went outside the 10th round even.
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FWIW: Fangraphs recognized Quintana in the annual trade value rankings as #37, right ahead of Byron Buxton and in the same "tier" as contemporaries Sonny Gray and Yordano Ventura: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-trade-value-40-31/ He's great and he isn't showing any signs at all the it's a fluke.
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QUOTE (woods of ypres @ Jul 16, 2014 -> 10:20 PM) Flying Serpent? Quetzalcoatl
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Yes or No, Danks for Santiago straight-up
Eminor3rd replied to The Ultimate Champion's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Interesting question. I say no, because: 1. The Sox really don't NEED to dump any salary, and 2. Santiago was a ticking time bomb with his peripherals when he was with us, leading me to believe that we got lucky and sold high rather than we have magic coaching that makes him okay. The stuff that happened to him in Anaheim was stuff that SHOULD have happened based on DIPS. -
QUOTE (robinventura23 @ Jul 16, 2014 -> 11:43 AM) I agree, but with the way Danks has been pitching, he's also a pretty nice trade asset. On the downside, who replaces him in the rotation? He doesn't have surplus value though, because his contract pays him every penny he's worth and then a touch more. You'd have to take the entire contract and then still find someone who believes his season is for real. Maybe that's a good move for us, but I don't think it's likely to occur. Which, IMO, makes him worth more to us than anyone else. We should at least be able to expect him to hold down our 3 or 4 spot in a serviceable manner for the next couple years.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 16, 2014 -> 10:34 AM) I love pieces like this. The game of baseball is so much more than any of us know or understand, and I love the insight given from a piece like that. All of the subtlety and nuances. Wow. Totally. I highly recommend anything David Laurila does. Most interviews with athletes are just total garbage, IMO. Laurila seems to find a way to ask interesting questions that actually give us insight into what they do. It's never stuff like, "how important is 'winning to you?" or whatever.
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Sox willing to deal Beckham in "right deal now"
Eminor3rd replied to Heads22's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 16, 2014 -> 09:24 AM) I am guessing that Micah today will look a lot like a no-glove version of Leury. No need to rush Johnson. I agree, not at all. I'd rather see Semien up for good in Beckham's place. Would like to see them do everything they can to get Sanchez to stick at SS. -
HOF considering not counting blank ballots
Eminor3rd replied to southsider2k5's topic in The Diamond Club
HOF is such a joke -
I just don't see us getting anything of real quality back if we don't move Alexei.
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How many All_Star games will Jose Abreu be in this year??@?! I say 5-7.
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Cool read, like every Laurila interview: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tyler-flowe...ng-and-umpires/
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A fair and balanced soliloquy about Jose Abreu, by ron
Eminor3rd replied to ron883's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It's official on Wiki until you edit it, lol. -
QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 15, 2014 -> 01:38 PM) Conor's defense has been pretty bad this year. Of the 157 balls hit to him in his zone, he's made plays on 104 of them for a zone rating of .662. Not good. This leads to a DRS of -9, which I'm sure is one of the worst among all ML 3B. UZR doesn't like him either at -5. He was slightly below average last year, but it looks like he's taken a turn for the worse. I wouldn't put too much into half a season of defensive metrics though. He's always been considering below average there, though, even in the minors. Probably safe to say that's what he is.
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If something is really wrong with his elbow, dude should take the three million bucks and get under the protection of the team's medical program ASAP. If he re-enters the draft next year, there's no way in hell any team is going to pretend like this isn't a red flag.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 15, 2014 -> 10:09 AM) As Jose Abreu drives around Chicago, he finds cross country athletes and asks them to get in the car. He just can't get enough of driving runners home. lol, did that one come to you in bed?
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 15, 2014 -> 01:04 AM) All you guys and your unsustainable BABIP . You act like hitters never hit .320-.350 before. Ever look up the BABIP for guys like Gwynn, Carew, Boggs ? It's just possible we have a guy who can hit .320 consistently. Conor was up at .350 batting average slumped down to .310 now has raised it back up to the .325 range again unlike most of the guys on this team who couldn't sustain the high average like Alexei, Beckham, Viciedo and Flowers. Once the AB's start piling up it's really difficult for a hitter batting around .310 to raise it back up as fast as he did. Last 7 games .526 . Last 10 .387 .378 in July. Yeah, if you think Conor Gillaspie has skills like Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew, we may just have something here, lol.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2014 -> 08:51 AM) The average OPS of 3b in MLB right now is .722 and it's .711 in the AL. Fine, Conor isn't hitting for power and he's probably not likely to keep up an .861 OPS based on points others have discussed, but if he were to put up an OPS close to .800 (and could also be platooned with on occasion), that would be a solidly above average offensive producer at that position in the modern era. There's nothing wrong with his level of production -- he's at 136 wRC+ for the season. The question about trading him, to me, just comes down to if we think this is the peak of his value.
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QUOTE (Charlie Haeger's Knuckles @ Jul 15, 2014 -> 07:38 AM) Is a smellface someone who smells faces or has a smelly face? Is a smellface anything like a stinkfist? You've hit upon one of the greater philosophical questions of our generation. I think you can take a course on this topic at your nearest college.
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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 14, 2014 -> 07:03 PM) Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon. This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor. No rush, not when he's still pre-arb. It comes down to what the team thinks players will do going forward. I don't mean in 5 years, but the next 1-2. We tend to fall in love with every guy as soon as he has a hot month because he are hoping for a breakout, but the reality is more complex. Our need is not now, it's maybe 2015 and definitely 2016. If we have a guy who we have reason to believe WON'T be a substantial contributor then, we need to try to move him for someone who we think will. Keep the pieces that will likely continue to provide value going forward (Quintana) and move the pieces that likely won't (Alexei). I don't know where Gillaspie falls on that spectrum, but that is the answer to whether or not we should shop him. So when you say "I don't care what his BABIP is," you're making a mistake, because his BABIP is an important factor (just one, granted) in deciding what he's likely going to be over the next few years.
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 14, 2014 -> 05:39 PM) This is an interesting idea and while I'm not sure I could stomach it, it would make a lot of sense to get a feel for what the market for him would be. The key would be taking my most trusted evaluators' opinions on Gillaspie to heart and if they think this won't last, then he gawn. This
