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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 4, 2013 -> 11:06 AM) Nothing against you but have you done enough research on variances in players O- Contacts rates to establish anything about it ? Maybe studied a group of high profile players from rookie year to now and see if there is any correlation ? Sometimes you make it seem like its the end all be all of how good a player is or will become like you did with Garcia. Doesn't hitting for a high average mean anything at all ? I'd be pretty damn happy with every Sox prospect putting up a .380 batting average with lousy O-Contact rates wouldn't you ? If I was making any sweeping generalizations, I think you are right to ask for some more evidence from me. But I'm not -- I'm simply talking about how Viciedo has taken a step backward offensively this year. That's an easy argument to make since all of his production-related numbers are worse, but since he is young and NOT a finished product, I'm trying to demonstrate a willingness to look beyond his numbers to see how his approach has differed. You and I both know that he swings at too many bad pitches, and if you look at Pitch F/X data, you see that he is swinging at more bad pitches than last year. I'm not aware of any research that tries to determine if successful players get better by learning to swing at more bad pitches, but that's probably because no one has felt that such research needs to be done. As for Garcia, I'm quoting that number in comparison to all of the Major Leaguers currently. You can look at the leaderboards and see that his pitch selection numbers rank in the top 10 worst of all Major Leaguers, and that really only Carlos Gomez is having a decent year among all of those in the same neighborhood -- leading me to believe that his approach may murder AAA, but there's little to no precedent for it doing the same in MLB. Garcia belongs in the Majors, he's been there before and has nothing left to prove in AAA, so I'm evaluating him like a Major Leaguer. You don't hear me spending much time talking about Courtney Hawkins' rates, for example, because he's 19 and has so much more to figure out before I can evaluate him like a Major Leaguer. Does that make sense? I know I'm clear as mud sometimes.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2013 -> 05:50 PM) I genuinely can't believe the Yankees haven't grabbed him yet. As of today, he is tied with Maicer Izturis for the lowest WAR in the entire Major Leagues, with -1.8. I cannot imagine any reason that any team would want to acquire that, much less at more than league minimum. What do the Yankees need a -1.8 WAR utility infielder for?

FWIW -- Keith Law has been one of Rienzo's biggest supporters. He called RIenzo our #3 prospect at one point, I believe.

I don't mind your logic, but Ethier is really bad at this point. We'd be better of splurging in free agency.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2013 -> 01:47 PM) Just keep him. He makes the team more watchable and he isn't blocking anyone. He'll probably have a lot of value at next year's deadline when his contract isn't a problem. This ^ If the team was desperate to shed payroll, it would be different, but since they aren't -- he isn't going to bring a lot back so you might as well keep sending him out there.

Keppinger because who would trade for him?

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 3, 2013 -> 08:45 PM) What this organization needs is more talent. Why not root for Hahn to have the best chance possible of acquiring the most talented players available?

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 03:11 PM) O-Contact is way up as is overall contact. "Much" less power is debatable. If he hits a homer today, his ISO is going to be pretty much identical. And this is without factoring in recent trends, in which we know he's been much better. O-Contact being up would be fine if his overall production was increasing, but since he's hitting worse than last year, I can't consider that fact that he's whiffing 3% less on bad pitches to be good while he's also swinging at bad pitches 2% more often.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) Viciedo has made major strides. I really can't call that a dissapointment. He was raw and the development he's made has been great and is positioning him to turn into a good offensive player. Now, if next year, he's still putting up numbers like this year, then its time to end the experiment. I disagree. Career high at swinging at pitches out of the zone, identical walk rate, much less power.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 01:06 PM) You don't have to have a high BB rate or low K rate to have good enough pitch recognition. If a guy is hitting exceptionally well, all signs point to his pitch recognition being very good and his strategy simply being very aggressive In AAA, where he faces fringe talent with fringe stuff and fringe control. It goes beyond k/BB rates -- his career O-Swing in the majors is 41%. That's insanely high. When guys can locate sliders and advance scouts are telling them exactly where Avisail can't hit them, he will need to learn to lay off of them. Just ask Dayan Viciedo.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 07:37 AM) I still don't see why you guys have Hawkins rated so high. Not even close to top 10 IMO. Fast forward to one year from now.....If he has similar numbers then, will you still rank him in Top Ten? Not me. lol wat

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 09:54 AM) The question is one of ceiling. Is there room for Semien to get better and be able to be a major leaguer? A lot of guys can hit at AA, but that doesn't mean they have any chance of hitting major league pitching. This is true as well. Semien is succeeding with a very advanced approach, which means what he's doing now essentially needs to play all the way up the ladder. If he hits a ceiling and struggles, there's not a whole lot they can teach him to make the most of his skills. I agree on Garcia -- I'm extremely skeptical that he can learn to recognize pitches well enough to be good, but there's no denying he has a high ceiling, because he's managed to become a monster at AAA solely on his tools and a tee ball-level hitting approach. He's high on the lists because people are imagining what he could do if he could learn to be a professional hitter.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:54 PM) I'm a little surprised nobody has Semien as our #1. He gets better at each level and is seemingly a five tool player. Garcia's lack of walks really temper my high hopes for him. He's still doing great in AAA at barely 22, I just don't know sustainable it is in his future. I think people are just waiting for the other shoe to drop on Semien. When you break out, you get attention, but then you have to sustain ti a bit to show it is for real. He'll be higher in lists going into next year, and then if he continues to rake, people will be talking about him as #1.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:28 PM) Stupid, insane, and ludicrous.....I can think of a couple of Sox prospects who, in my opinion, have a better chance of reaching the majors than does Hawkins, and they don't show up on anyone's list. But that's just me. When I see a young player constantly improving, I see a good prospect. Hawkins is doing the opposite, and I don't know why. He's the youngest guy at his level. He is there because he murdered his age appropriate level. You push a guy up until he struggles, then you work with him to fix it. That's how it works. If he was mashing rookie ball again this year, he'd be wasting his time building habits that won't play at a higher level. If he repeats the level next year and looks the same, then it's time to worry, but you're off-base in your expectations of the player development process if you are knocking Hawkins right now based on nothing but his numbers.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 10:32 AM) To clarify, as fathom said, I was NOT saying that lineup I posted was a contender. I said that lineup with 2 significant upgrades could be decent. And as Jake pointed out, returns on any trade in the offseason MIGHT have an effect too. 1. I didn't put those starters in any particular order, should have clarified. 2. Santiago has a ton of talent and is just as likely to start as Johnson, in my view. But he's less consistent, and I am guessing (just my guess) that they may trade one of him or Quintana. And in that case, I'd prefer they trade Santiago. The whole purpose of showing that roster, if you had read my post, was what was there PRIOR to any acquisitions. it is a baseline, then you improve it from there, as noted. Sorry, I must have just skimmed it and missed the part where you mentioned 'upgrades'

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 02:03 AM) It's too late now. The Sox just did nothing but lose, lose, lose. No changes. I meant a figurehead coach like Brett/Thomas if Sox weren't going to fire Robin. BTW. Why does nobody criticize Manto this year? Walker was basically ripped on a daily basis. There was a pretty lengthy argument about him in yesterday's game thread.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) If the Sox can dump Rios, either in August or in the offseason... maybe Lindstrom too, maybe Alexei, for argument's sake... your roster would look something like the below, if you look ONLY at players under contract or already in-house: C: Phegley 1B: Wilkins 2B: Beckham SS: Semien or Sanchez 3B: Gillaspie OF: Viciedo OF: Garcia OF: De Aza DH: Dunn Bench... C: Flowers INF: Sanchez or Semien, maybe, or someone else cheap OF: JorDanks or whomever ??: ? Rotation... Sale Quintana Johnson Danks Rienzo or Santiago Bullpen... Reed (CL) Jones Webb Castro Axelrod Veal Santiago or Rienzo Lots of big question marks there, but also a very young roster with some very nice talent, and... only about $45M plus arb salaries to deal with. That might make it $55M. The opening day payroll this season was something like $104M. The team gets an extra $25M in TV money. Even if they decide to cut payroll a bit, despite the new money, they've probably still got $30M-$40M to play with to add to the above roster. I absolutely would not write off contending next year. That is a pretty damn good rotation (though lefty-heavy), that is a bullpen with some untested but talented arms, and even the lineup has young talent. But if you use that $30-$40M to get above average hitters (hopefully with some power) for a couple positions (and you could do it at almost ALL those positions, though 1B and 3B stick out)... you can make a decent lineup there. Just saying, I don't consider 2014 a full-on write-off... yet. Have to see how the offseason goes. Stranger things have happened, but that lineup doesn't even look remotely like a contender to me

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 06:19 PM) If Alexei is still around next season, I'd rather have Semien starting at 3b than Gillaspie. I disagree. If Alexei is around, he won't be around much longer. Semien is one of those borderline SS types, I'd rather him get consistent reps there in AA/AAA to maximize his chance of staying when Ramirez is gone.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) I absolutely would not write off contending next year. That is a pretty damn good rotation (though lefty-heavy), that is a bullpen with some untested but talented arms, and even the lineup has young talent. But if you use that $30-$40M to get above average hitters (hopefully with some power) for a couple positions (and you could do it at almost ALL those positions, though 1B and 3B stick out)... you can make a decent lineup there.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:44 PM) I'd like someone to show DA's or my argument wrong about the draft. You can't. There is no consistent correlation between losing and having a productive farm. A week ago when we were speculating about which teams we wanted to trade with because of their great farms who did we turn to? The Rangers (they have a couple pennants and have been competitive for 5 years or so), the Cardinals (who have been winning for years) and the D-Backs (usually middle of the pack). Why are those teams so successful without drafting in the top ten? Better player development, traditionally massive international signing budgets, and hits on veterans-for-prospects trades. In other words, excellent work in areas related to farm systems.

Yeah, kind of crazy, but I see no place where we should add a veteran to the lineup via free agency now that we have Garcia. Rios needs to move for him, and there's no point in clogging DH if we manage to move Dunn. We might find ourselves needing a bullpen piece or something.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:56 PM) Last year was a fluke. There isn't any other way to describe it. You mean other than "this year is a fluke?"

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:35 PM) 10 months away, I don't see how anyone could know who is going to be a consensus number 1 or 2. Rodon is the college pitcher with the most buzz, but who knows what will happen in the next 10 months of amateur baseball. It's going to be nice to have options, but I hope there is an obvious pick that can't be debated for decades. This ^ Everything changes a ton during/after the college and high schools baseball seasons leading up to the draft.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:09 PM) Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now?? About 2 to 3 wins better?

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) He got a broken version of Adam. He has turned Adam into our best hitter this season and a key contributor last season and the second best hitter on the team if you combine the last two seasons. I guess I'm just not sure that Manto is what "turned" Dunn into our best hitter. I would be more inclined to believe that were it not for that whole "get more aggressive" experiment we had in April that was a total disaster. Dunn got productive when he went back to being his old self.