Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 09:40 AM) I'd bet Arod. Ahhh yes, you are correct: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa...w-york-yankees/

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 08:05 AM) $25 mill in 2014 $21 mill in 2015 $20 mill in 2016 $20 mill in 2017 Hamilton? What's crazy is that isn't even as bad as Ryan Howard: $20m in 2013 $25m in 2014 $25m in 2015 $25m in 2016 $25m option in 2017 ($10m buyout)

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 08:30 AM) Cespedes can get you wins on the basepaths and on defense, something this guy won't do. He has one tool - his bat - and it has to pan out or he's completely useless. Cespedes can have a down year at the plate (96 wRC+ this year) but still become a 2 WAR player (1.6 WAR so far, on track for 2.3/2.4 per Steamer/ZiPs) You're right, but Cespedes doesn't have anything like a 70 hit tool. Certainly, those scouting grades may not hold up when everyone gets a good look at him, but if he's really a 70 hit/70 power guy, he will have no problem touching 2 WAR even on bad years. If that guy is 26, you give him $10m per year without thinking about it -- especially nothing in the system to hold down first base. And especially when your offense is embarrassingly bad.

1) The Dunn comparisons don't really work, IMO. If scouts are dropping a 70 grade on the hit tool, he's a completely different player. Also, he's 26, not 31. 2) Unspectacular or not, Cespedes is TOTALLY worth 4/36. We're not talking about $20m per year here. I think some people are overestimating what $8-10m can really buy you in free agency. Abreu would only need to be a 2 WAR player to earn $10m per year.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 05:30 PM) Market for Cuban players is overinflated, imo. Tread carefully. It's overinflated because the current CBA has made it so that unrestricted international free agency is the only way to spend money to acquire young, high-end talent. If $80m is the price to play at the table, then so be it. Hahn's hands are tied with regard to the money he has saved -- there are only so many elite scouts he can hire, and even picking at the top of the draft only gives him ~$10m of room there.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) Jake Peavy won a Cy Young in his prime, so that is not correct. And Mark Buehrle was no maestro himself, teams like the A's, Blue Jays, Twins, used to rough him up pretty good. Exactly -- Buehrle never touched 2007 Jake Peavy. I grant that prime Buerhle was probably better than this current version of Peavy after multiple major surgeries and a 5-7 mph velocity loss, but let's not get crazy.

It would be hard to believe that he won't get a ton of reps at SS, considering that his best chance to contribute is defensively. Semien is the best hitter of the trio, and if his bat is ready next year, he'll likely have a shot to contribute at 3B. That said, if the guy is going to be pegged as a defense guy, he could certainly maximize that value by being able to play multiple positions. Perhaps it COULD be a situation where he finds himself in a different one each night or week. Could be some major lineup-shuffling in Charlotte.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 03:40 PM) Dunn gets lots of good pitches to hit; he just misses most of them. You might be surprised to find out that his Z-Contact rate (contact rate on pitches in the strike zone) this year isn't far off from league average (82.5% vs. 87%), and that his Z-Swing (percentage of pitches he sees in the zone that he swings at) is almost exactly league average (65.1% vs. 65.4%).

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) Their chances are about the size of a bread basket.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) Bowden has an ESPN Inside article on him. Among the highlights: And he calls the Marlins the favorites to sign him based on people he has talked to. In order: Marlins, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Nationals and Rockies. Take it for what it's worth. Like has been mentioned with Cespedes, Athletics came out of nowhere to sign him. 70/70 on the hit tools is like Miguel Cabrera. Were those his current grades or his ceilings?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:50 PM) The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh? Considering we just found out this morning that he's currently in Haiti, and may not be able to establish residency/free agency for months, I'd imagine this is all preliminary. I wouldn't worry too much at this stage

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:36 PM) If it takes a deal similar or slightly better than Puig's to get him, sign me up. He'll likely cost 50-100% more, sounds like.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 12:07 PM) For those with knowledge of Cuban League baseball (or followed the defectors closer than I) - is it common for those top players to have featured the type of OBP that Abreu has? Should that signal he's more of a patient hitter than we are used to from Cuba, or is that line pretty typical for a top hitter in Cuba? I was wondering the same thing. Wish we could see Pitch F/X data to determine. However, I was listening to a podcast a week or so ago where someone asked Jason Parks why Latino-imported pitchers seem to always be relievers, and he said that they all tend to be very wild, hard throwers with noisy mechanics. Whether it had to do with player development philosophy or the fact that showcases tend to favor the loudest tools, he could not say. So that makes me wonder if the Cuban league just has a ton of high-walk pitchers, which might explain the high isolated patience for the top hitters. That said, even if the control is worse overall, the willingness to take those horrible pitches is still nice. I mean, Viciedo certainly never had it, for example.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 9, 2013 -> 11:28 PM) The stat nerds (I say it lovingly) will get on me for this I'm sure, but Jake Peavy has been eminently hittable in many many games, including tonight's. Mark Buehrle in his Sox prime was so so so much better than Jake Peavy! I'm not a Peavy hater. I loved his bulldogishness (the times he refuses to come out of games, et.all) but Jake is not a maestro. Guys have good nights and bad nights. Also, this is not prime Jake Peavy.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:43 AM) Puig's 7-year, $42 million deal is looking like a bargain. If we could get something similar for Abreu would make sense, especially a guy in his prime. Cubans are sort of becoming the next market efficiency. Abreu is so much more of a known quantity than Puig though, so he comes with less uncertainty. Puig was basically just a rumor when the bidding started on him. This guy is older and has been on an international stage for years. He'll definitely cost more.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:29 AM) I'd hate to see anyone block Andy Wilkins at this point, so a big no to this signing. lol

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) Which is kind of funny considering this board's sentiment towards getting rid of both. Well, I think he means the fact that organization has been successful in acclimating Cuban defectors into the league before. It implies that the White Sox are aware of the challenges facing defectors and that they've been willing and able to support them.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 09:53 AM) Right, however, we have been "in" on the talks for all of these. Going back even to when we offered fukodome more than the cubs. And last year going in for Soler. Indeed. Reasons to be hopeful.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 09:47 AM) And on top of it, if you start to look at teams who will spend money, most have their 1Bs that they are committed to. Boston looks like the best fit, since Napoli has been pretty pedestrian after May. But yeah, this is one where the Cubs/Dodgers won't be in a position to blow everyone away this time because of their incumbents.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 09:45 AM) TBH, I'm not so sure that's true. Well, I'm not either. I just know we don't have any of them. Ramirez/Viciedo got peanuts compared to what this guy is going to get. I'm just tempering my expectations, I guess.

This makes almost too much sense on paper, given the Sox clear need for offense, a first baseman, players that will be able to contribute for the next 5 years, and something to get the payroll over $50m. That said, there's no precedent for them going after a guy like this, so I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even have a chance on him. I hope we do though. Something like 6/60 would be the richest deal to one of these guys by far, and even if he was a AAAA hitter, the $10m per year wouldn't kill you. This is a good fit, methinks.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 08:09 AM) Wasn't Jose Abreu the guy who was supposed to make Puig look like crap? Cuba was supposed to have one legendary ballplayer left and I think that was his name. What are the rules here, how would we have to do this? Does he fall under the international signing caps? Do we basically get "him and no other international signings for 2 years" if we offer him big money? He's older than 23, so there would be no restrictions. This is the guy that has all of the Cuban homerun records and stuff. Got a lot of press when Cespedes defected because every time someone wanted to make a claim about Cespedes' monster numbers, it was alwways "and he has the most xxxxxxx of any player in Cuba (except Abreu)!!!"

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Aug 11, 2013 -> 07:41 PM) They'll be competitive quicker by not signing these guys next year. This^ is the major point. The team is bad, and we have no choice but to eat it for a while to rebuild a core. Fortunately, it doesn't look like it's going to take more than a season or two, but if we refuse to suck it up, we're just going to be middling pretenders in the mean time and push the real window out even further.

The payroll is interesting, because it would be hard to believe that the FO would run out there without bringing it up to at least $70m or so, even though no one expects us to compete. Makes you wonder if the will go for someone like McCann if they feel like he can take some ABs at 1B/DH as he gets older and no impact bat in the system that projects at 1B in the near future. Then again: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/jose...-from-cuba.html

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 9, 2013 -> 10:20 PM) This is the most ridiculous move you can make anymore. Why is Axelrod brought in in these situations let alone still with this team Because we're like 30-80