The Sir

Does Kopech typically have this skewed of a FB/GB ratio? They're hitting everything in the air today.

4 IP, 3 H, 4 K, on 61 pitches. I swear I've said this before, but I've long thought Kopech would be the prize of the Sale trade.

Well I'd rather face this Rodriguez guy than freakin' Mahtook.

LOL at Tim using Goodrum's leg to stand up.

I can't wait for the YolmEra to be over.

Alan Trammel wasn't even that good.

We ought to. We don't sentence <18 teenagers to death, or life without parole, when they commit murder. We don't allow them to vote. We don't allow them to consent to sex (yeah yeah, the AOC varies by state, whatever). We don't allow most of them to drive, and when we allow it of the older ones, it's generally under greater restrictions than the rest of the population. We don't allow them to buy guns. We don't allow them to drink. I'll stop now, but we set these restrictions because teenagers are stupid and we realize it, we expect it, and we know we have to mitigate the risks. It's a stupid thing to call someone a f** when you're 17, but unless you're still doing it when you're 25, I'm not going to hold it against you forever.

He was a teenager. Teenagers do and say stupid stuff. I'm happy that social media didn't exist when I was a teenager. The end.

As much as Sox fans get irritated with Moncada's slow progress, can y'all imagine how we'd treat Lewis Brinson? Guy has been TERRIBLE ever since being called up, and while it's a small sample, even his rehab in the minors is ugly. Also, notice who's leading off for the Tides tonight? Mike Yastrzemski. Yep- Carl's grandson.

Are they really not going to continue this game? Sheesh. For the life of me, I don't understand why anyone chooses to live in Chicago.

Oh, it hit him alright. No doubt about that. I just think he's a wienie for being so giddy about it and sprinting off to first, knowing he didn't have to face Kopech any more.

Does Kopech come back out after this?

Weak hits, excitement over a grazing HBP...yeah, now I remember why I hate the Twins more than any team in sports. The players change, but the wimpy style never does. 13 consecutive playoff losses dating back to 2004. My favorite losing streak of all time.

How's the weather? I take it this game is happening as scheduled?

OK, this is probably a dumb question...but how does this work? I mean, Daniel Murphy must have cleared waivers so that he can be traded outright, but what about the players the Cubs are giving to the Nats? Did they have to clear waivers too? What about trading minor league players in August? It seems like a really dumb time to do this, either way. No way in Hell they're going to get the return for, say, Harper that they might have secured three weeks ago, right?

I had a dream about his start last night. He retired the side in order in the first, albeit without any strikeouts. However, I wasn't watching the game live, and I tried to cheat by just looking at the box score and seeing his final outcome. Alas, he wasn't there (in the box score). It probably means he gets scratched right before game time and needs TJS. See you in 2020.

Given that Gallo has either K’ed, BB’ed or HR’ed in 59% of his PAs in his career, I’d take a pretty solid guess and say that Gallo’s approach pretty much stays the same: Hit it out, count be damned. That’ll lead to a bunch of Ks, certainly. Yoan is different. The O-swing and Z-swing rates lay it out pretty clear: the kid doesn’t swing enough. That can be fixed.

I still want your thoughts on what he can do at his current rates if only he can bring the K-rate down. I did all the math for several reduced-K scenarios towards the top of this page (assuming you're on page 73).

Anyone have a video of the entire thing (bunt reaction and HBP)?

Thanks, man. I will say that, if anyone thinks my stance on Moncada (often pessimistic in the past) changed, well, to some extent, it did. I just did the math and let it play out. Seeing what he can reasonably do if he overcomes one area of difficulty is enlightening, and gives me a higher degree of optimism. For that reason, I'm just going to shamelessly drop @footlongcomiskeydog in here and see what he thinks of the possibilities.

This isn't hard, dude. "His stats get way better when you factor in a little bit of respect from the umpires on how good his batting eye is." OK, that's an argument for why he will improve, and it's even a decent argument in that regard. What you said combined with what I said and, at the very least, Moncada is an above average MLB second baseman. But some people are going to be antsy about it until that actually comes to fruition. That's understandable. And yes, some results matter in 2018. But they need context. Giolito's overall stats are awful, but if you look at the last month or so, it's been much better. That's an important caveat for how we look at him going into the off season. Moncada's overall stats are below average, but if you look at certain aspects it gets better. It's stupid to throw out these results entirely, but they need context. So yeah, results matter, and if you're not looking at results at all, you're doing it wrong.

Frankly, because “woulda, coulda, shoulda” isn’t going to win us a ring. It makes us feel better about things, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. Is it a decent argument as to why he can and should feasibly improve along my predicted lines? Sure. But until it turns into end results, it’s not going to mean a ton to many people. Do I share their complete despair? No, but I understand it. Results matter.

I find the K-rate concerning. Like I think I capably showed in my last post, it’s the difference between him being a borderline superstar or him being traded for a PTBNL in 2022. But it is very important to note what kind of strikeouts he has. And while I’m not a real Fangraphs nerd, what gives me some optimism is that whole O-swing, Z-swing thing. The guy knows the zone, which the biggest reason I think his Ks can come down.

You are correct. So look at OPS instead. I don't care that Moncada is hitting .219; I do care that his OPS is .695. And looking at month-by-month, he did .877, .582, .592, .749, .606 so far. One excellent month, one average month, and three Engel months. The fact of the matter is that Ks must come down. Right now, he's striking out at a 35% rate. If he could get that down to 27% (190 Ks in 700 PAs), he could be at least above average. A .325 BABIP (assuming 25 HRs, and this is roughly his BABIP in MLB time with us) and 10% BB-rate with that K-rate would give him 160 hits in 630 ABs (.254 BA). OBP of .329. Assume 30 2Bs and 5 3Bs, and he accumulates 275 TBs for an SLG of .437. OPS is .766. Not bad, and he'd certainly be a starting two-bagger, maybe even top-10 in MLB. But not Robinson Cano, as many (I think) were hoping for. Now let's imagine if he can get down to current Kris Bryant levels (although I will add that Bryant started at where I have Moncada ending in the last scenario, but he was more polished, fine, OK). So give him a 20% K-rate, like Bryant attained last year. 140 Ks in 700 PAs. BABIP of .325 (and because he's not K'ing as much, we'll predict 30 HRs). Some of those looking Ks have now morphed into well-deserved walks, so he has a 15% BB-rate. That's 105 BBs (elite batting eye- this is totally possible). That BABIP and aforementioned assumptions gives us 168 hits in 595 ABs, for a .282 BA (OBP of .390). Assume 35 2Bs (again, less time striking out means more time to drill the ball into the gap) and 5 3Bs. That's 303 TBs for an SLG of .505 and an OPS of .899. That is what we traded Chris freakin' Sale for. But the Ks must come down. P.S. just for fun, if I took the 20% K-rate but kept everything else at his 2018 rates, here's what you'd get in 700 PAs: ABs- 627 BBs- 73 Hs- 178 2Bs- 30 3Bs- 7 HRs- 22 BA- .284 OBP- .359 SLG- .459 OPS- .818 That level is reached simply by cutting his Ks (albeit significantly). That's all based on his exact rates for BBs, XBHs of each type, and his current BABIP. No improvement except the K-rate. If he can start being aggressive earlier in counts and defensive later in them, he can be a perennial All Star. And like some have said, teaching Yoan to be more like Tim Anderson will be a lot easier than teaching Tim Anderson to be like Yoan.

I really can't understand this. Small sample size is a constant defense of Moncada. But now, a small sample of an otherwise terrific season is an argument against Albies? AYFKM?