Jose Abreu

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Oct 16, 2016 -> 12:37 PM) No. There is a difference between a "team's best hitter" and "one of the best hitters in baseball". Tommy Joseph was the Phillies best hitter this year. Does that make him a top 30 and one of the best hitters in baseball? The Reds #1 starter is Anthony DeSclafani. Does that mean he's an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball? You're theory operates on all teams being equal, and that's not even close to being true. But I'm not saying to take the top hitters from each team in real life. I'm saying that Melky is in the top 64 of all MLB hitters, so if teams were even, he would be the third best hitter on a team, and nearly a 2nd best hitter.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 16, 2016 -> 12:32 PM) And he can't play defense at all and he was not a good hitter the prior year. The only teams interested in him would be contenders and where exactly will a contender use him....DH. Like I said, July trade guy, presuming he has a good year and presuming Hahn doesn't take another nap this July The defense comment is accurate. However, 2015 Melky (who, by the way, was still decent) also was extremely unlucky. This year, his luck balanced out and his numbers got better. My point is, it isn't an issue of ability. edit- he had a .297 2015 BABIP despite a higher hard contact % than he had this year.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Oct 16, 2016 -> 12:01 PM) No, it doesn't. Top 20 hitter in baseball are some of the best hitters in baseball. There, all cleared up. So the 21st best hitter in baseball, or, in theory, the best hitter on one's team, doesn't qualify as one of the best? The way I see it, the best 2-3 hitters on all teams, therefore the top 90 overall (maybe closer to 75), should be considered some of the best in the game.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 16, 2016 -> 11:12 AM) Melky one of the best hitters in baseball....good lord He was 65th in OPS. 65/270 puts him in the top 24% of hitters in baseball... he's one of the best and to say that "nobody wants him" is just absurd.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 15, 2016 -> 06:17 PM) Nobody wants Melky, except in maybe a July pickup if he's having a good year. Like others said, Jones, or preferably Robertson. Yeah you're right, I mean who would want one of the best hitters in baseball?

McEwing was horrible at sending/holding runners. Hope this guy is better

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 12, 2016 -> 11:03 PM) If you could get Moncada, Benintendi, Kopech and Swihart for Sale and Melky, do you do it? Yes, 100 times out of 100, which tells me Boston wouldn't.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 12, 2016 -> 10:00 PM) FWIW---Boston Cable had their end of season Red Sox wrap-up show tonight. Had 4 of the regular media members that cover the team from different media sources. Retaining Farrell was a sign that Dombrowski will not be making major changes. All were in agreement that Red Sox from all indications will go with existing starters but will need to add a set-up person in bullpen. All agreed Moncada and Benintendi will not be traded. A few other thoughts they had: 1. Moncada could eventually end up as a right-fielder in AAA next year and that could free up a Bradley trade in 2018. 2. 3B is Panda's to lose. 3. Swihart will eventually be traded but not this offseason since he is damaged goods. 4. Vazquez will most likely be the 2017 catcher. 5. Buchholtz could be a sign and trade for a SP prospect or a bullpen piece. As if anyone would want him... he's worse than Danks. I hope they aren't that biased.

Texas doesn't really have many elite prospects anymore after the trade deadline, unless you consider Mazara and Odor to be prospects. And even then, Mazara/Odor/Mendez is not good enough for Sale. Profar, maybe? But he doesn't have much team control left IIRC.

Sorry for bringing him up again, but why does nobody include Groome in potential packages? He's arguably their #3 prospect.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 05:57 PM) I think it is more a fear of looking like fools if none of the prospects turn into much. But when you're getting 5(ish) of them, and high value ones, the odds of all of them being busts/below average players are so slim.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 03:36 PM) I mean what are we talking about 5 in all of baseball in a year? Maybe 10? Let me put it this way, the AL had almost 100,000 PAs this season. Even if there were 10 hit in the AL this year, we are talking about a 1 in 10,000 event. We are talking about 0.0001. /discussion BABIP is actually a very useful stat if you can interpret it and take contact type/HR rate into consideration.

I don't even want an "established veteran" from Boston. I'm more than fine with Sale/Robertson for Benintendi/Groome/Kopech + a couple other pieces. Needing an established veteran back rather than 5 very good prospects just screams "we want to trade Sale but still compete in 2017" which, to me, sounds horrible.

Bradley is great but his offensive decline this year does worry me. I think Sale and Robertson for Benintendi, Kopech, Groome, Devers, and Swihart is both reasonable and a fair trade. They get to keep Bradley/Moncada. Maybe drop one of Groome/Devers if Boston says no.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 10:16 AM) So, one point I've been thinking about today with regards to "price for Sale and Q rising" - there's some nonzero risk of holding these guys too long and being too patient this offseason that at least should be considered. As basically everyone has noted, the Free Agent market this season is terrible. There are only a handful of guys who could make a difference on any given ballclub. Let's imagine that this situation creates an early offseason run on the available free agent talent, that guys like Desmond, Fowler, and the catchers are signed in November and off the market. There are teams that simply must sign players at some of these positions otherwise they will be playing the trade market just to have anyone there, particularly with the catchers I think. If the White Sox hold their ground waiting for someone to meet their price, it is of course possible some team could get deseprate as the FA supply shrinks, but let's say that doesn't happen and teams hold firm. Where do the White Sox wind up after the winter meetings? By that point, the free agent market would be utterly barren. If the White Sox have decided to play the game of being patient - yes they could continue holding these guys into the season, but what sort of season have they set up? They would have missed out on any potential FA upgrades, and they'd be scraping the bottom of the barrel in mid December to find people who could just play the positions they have open. If they're actually going to trade these guys or seriously considering it, there's a risk in waiting too long. They can't go out and sign Fowler to the richest contract in team history and then find the next day that JBJ is put on the market by Boston, but they can't wait for Fowler and the other FAs to be sucked up by someone else if they're not going to trade these guys because then they enter next season with the same moribund roster they had this year. Basically - there's actual pressure here. If they don't get a worthy offer early, you might not want to wait on the market. Well put. We need to strike during or before the Winter Meetings.

Bradley fell off hard from a hitting standpoint late this season. Definitely a warning flag, in terms of his value.

Everything is lining up perfectly. We need to take advantage.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:30 PM) You're talking very small numbers here. Frazier put 394 balls in play this year. So overall this year he hit (versus what he would have with last years percentages): 13 less line drives 10 more ground balls 7 more popups 9 more softly hit balls 23 less hard hit balls Obviously some of those overlap too (less lines drives / less hard hit balls, popups / softly hit balls). Those type of numbers do not entirely equate to a 35 point drop in BABIP. His hard hit ball percentage is pretty well right in line with his career numbers but his BABIP was 40+ points less than his career mark. Part of that can be attributed to a higher HR/FB% but overall he did have some bad luck this year. No reason to think he can't rebound at least some. I know he had some bad luck, but a lot of his poor performance was definitely on him and not luck, due to the stats I cited. As you said, BABIP is also low due to his HR%. BABIP is known to penalize big time HR hitters since a HR is technically not "in play"- Mark Trumbo's, for example was .278.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:29 AM) I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration. Per Fangraphs: Line drive percentage decreased from 19.1% in 2015 to 15.7%. Ground ball percentage increased from 33.1% in 2015 to 35.6%. Pop-up/infield fly ball percentage increased from 16.8% in 2015 to 18.5%. Soft contact percentage increased from 18.4% in 2015 to 20.7%. Hard contact percentage decreased from 37.3% in 2015 to 31.3%. Here is a supplementary article that explains it all as well. Of course your BABIP is gonna be extremely low when you're popping out, hitting fewer line drives, and hitting weak grounders far more often than you used to. Is that enough evidence for you?

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 05:49 PM) I'm aware they had down years. Frazier, for instance, had a BABIP 42 points below his career average. A lot of that was due to many more pop-ups and more weak contact

By the way, can't Jason Groome be traded this offseason? What about Benintendi/Kopech/Groome/Devers/Vasquez for Sale? (If they're adamant on no-Moncada). Of course, if our dumb FO still insists on Jackie Bradley as the centerpiece, then this is all irrelevant anyway.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 01:22 AM) No chance they offer Betts. I've already mentioned the problems with JBJ but there's no way they would include Benintendi with him because that would leave 2 holes in their OF. If you ask for JBJ (major league starter for them) and Moncada they are going to put up a ton of resistance to give up more than a Kopech or Vazquez beyond the first 2. Just ask for all their prospects (Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Kopech, and maybe Vazquez like you mentioned) and be done with it. The only way it would make sense to keep Quintana is if the team re-signs Frazier to be a 1B after next season. Lineup going into 2018 could look something like this: LF - FA/Cabrera?/Saladino?/Collins? CF - Benintendi RF - Eaton 3B - Devers SS - Anderson 2B - Moncada 1B - Frazier DH - Abreu C - Vazquez Util - Saladino (super utility and plays LF when Collins is catching) C - Collins (backup C but plays most days in LF) Q Rodon FA 2 of Gonzalez/Hansen/Kopech/Fulmer/Adams/2017 #1 Draft Pick Rotation would have a few more holes though. That has the potential to be a really nice lineup. We'd probably need to sign a #3 ish starter in FA. I think in 2019 we could make a run at the division/wild card with that lineup. I just hate the idea of a half-sell, which is what this is unless we dealt Quintana as well.

Game postponed to tomorrow

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 09:56 AM) Not really. They had the same fWAR but Avila did so with less than 2/3 the PAs that Flowers had. Avila was clearly the superior player when healthy this year. I agree, but keep in mind that Flowers is a great pitch framer Edit: Those who watched the games this year should know how often strikes our pitchers threw were called balls. Was far more prevalent this year than last.

QUOTE (Donaldo @ Oct 6, 2016 -> 07:33 PM) I still don't want him. I'm tired of this team bringing in guys in their 30s. I mean, it's one thing if he's late 30s like LaRoche or Rollins, but Cespedes is literally 30.