Jose Abreu

For whatever reason, premier power hitters tend to get more "but look at his strikeouts" type-criticism than everyone else, even when the strikeout rates are similar. Okamoto has been a league average hitter (which is fine, to be clear) but whenever he gets talked about as a "safe" or high floor hitter, nobody brings up the 32% K rate. On the other hand, Chase Meidroth, a player that I like, is striking out ~24% of the time this year and that doesn't seem to get brought up much either

I agree that this is the floor, in the event that he were willing to take a deal that slightly undervalues his current production for longer term security. Vlad Jr. signed an extension that kicked in for his age 27 season (which would be next year for Mune), and he got $500M over 14 years, roughly $36M AAV. If I'm Murakami, I don't see why I would accept an extension for a penny less than $36M AAV. I doubt either party wants the 14 years, but 6/215 would roughly align to that.

I took it differently because immediately after acknowledging that he wouldn't sign for 4/100 (which I agree is a ridiculous bargain), he immediately followed it up with "I was told that there are conversations happening." Specifically, the quote of "I have this on very good authority, that the White Sox have realized internally in that organization what they've stumbled into... they are very willing to commit if they could, now it's just a matter of actually doing it" would imply to me that the "conversations" are not just internal, because if they're already willing to commit, why wouldn't they engage Murakami's camp to see what his price is?

Feels like this is actually pretty big news. "There are conversations happening" between the Sox and Murakami's camp re: extension already? I wouldn't have expected the Sox to be willing so soon

I think this is a joke, but in case anyone really believes this: There were a lot of red flags in Mercedes' profile, even in April of 2021. He was outperforming his xwOBA by about 60 points. He didn't hit the ball hard consistently (yes, he was capable of it, but on average he was middle of the pack). His two-strike approach, while cool at first, became very overexposed and ultimately he just didn't have the ability to consistently do damage on pitches in the zone. This was all pretty apparent even when he was hot. On the other hand, the one and only notable red flag with Murakami is that he swings and misses at a very high rate. Unlike Mercedes, he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone, and he hits the ball (very) hard consistently. There's certainly a decent chance Murakami is not the .900-1.000 OPS hitter he has been so far, but I highly doubt he ends up being unworthy of a second contract. He has already been adjusting well to the pitchers' initial adjustments to him, so I tend to lean toward the optimistic side FWIW

As a hitter yes, so far he's Schwarber with a higher walk rate. Contractually no, since Schwarber got his big deal at age 33 and Mune will reach free agency at 28. (And his prior contract was after only 1 year of his now typical production)

I wrote about this in more detail recently. I don't love the Olson and Alonso comps because of the age difference, although there aren't many great comps out there in fairness. Vlad Jr. is on the other extreme since he was younger than Murakami will be when he reaches free agency. I don't know why everyone conveniently ignores that one during these conversations — maybe because Guerrero didn't end up reaching free agency himself, but at this (very early) point he is a much better hitter comparison for Murakami than any of these other guys. A 170 wRC+ is MVP-level good. Again, very early. It will ultimately come down to just how good he is. If he's the hitter we've seen through the first 23 games, he'll be closer to Vlad Jr. and will be long gone. If he's closer to that Naylor tier then he can reasonably be kept even with contract inflation + his off-field value. If he's a Pete Alonso-level hitter, I would be skeptical since he's younger and more valuable off the field. I know Alonso just got his deal, but if he were three years younger this free agency and had an outsized off-field revenue impact, he probably would've gotten more like 8/280

On the flip side of this, if he's really this good (meaning OPS near 1.000, wRC+ around 170, etc.) then his contract is going to be less Pete Alonso and more Vlad Guerrero Jr

The patience has been more impressive to me than the power. I knew he had high walk rates in Japan but I wasn't expecting 21.5% in his first 93 PAs

I know he didn't deserve the job in the first place, but I really don't think it's unfair to say that Acuña needs to at least be a real major leaguer for Getz to deserve to keep his job The "switch hitter" debacle is so embarrassing. To say that not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times makes it clear that he truly didn't know a pretty significant detail about the player he acquired. And that player has been nothing short of awful to boot

He has a lot more power than people think (i.e., enough to keep outfields honest). He isn't Madrigal. I think we'll see it this year

If that were the case, I think the report would've come from Heyman. Reports from an international free agent's own country are usually more accurate than what we get from even the best reporters in the US If Boras was indeed able to leverage the Japanese media in that way and didn't have to use the usual cronies, then more power to him

Thanks for reading 😄

https://www.soxon35th.com/why-the-justin-ishbia-news-is-even-better-than-you-think-for-the-white-sox/

FWIW, in his 100 PAs with the Pirates, Alexander Canario has a .353 xwOBA. Only Tauchman and Slater (in even smaller samples) have higher figures with the White Sox. I've seen his numbers being used as a punchline in here, but he has been very unlucky and has actually had well above-average metrics, just with some particularly bad luck so far (.297 actual wOBA)

It's sad to see how normalized this is. 3 consecutive 100+ loss seasons (assuming 2025 continues to be poor), potentially back-to-back seasons of having the most losses in MLB history, very little progress in the minors from position players, and there's an extremely vocal (albeit small) group here that is just... ok with it. This isn't "just how rebuilds go"

He's having the career I thought Moncada would have

He isn't even a fourth outfielder IMO because a fourth outfielder should be average or better in center field, and he's atrocious out there. I've never seen a center fielder drop as many balls as he has in a season.

That's light... AJSS has been rough this year and Nacho is a 3rd piece at best to me. But I understand that's the best they can probably do without dipping into established players

I get that the Yankees have Spencer Jones even though we all (justifiably) don't like him. But how would the Braves even try to make that happen?

And when he (Mena) immediately adds 2-3 MPH on his fastball after the trade... @ChiSox59is fair in point out Mena's WHIP, but his numbers when you consider both how young he is and that he's pitching in the PCL honestly are not bad. I think he at least has an MLB future, which is more than I can say for Fletcher

Walker as a headliner for Fedde would be underwhelming even beyond the concerns with whether he's fixable. Fedde should net more than a reclamation project headliner