steveno89

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) Hansen Top 50! Glad to see him getting some recognition. Is Dunning anywhere to be found? Dunning does not have quite the same level of pure upside as Hansen does, but he is a quality prospect in his own right. I think he has the upside of a #3 starter, but could end up as an innings eating #4 or 5 starter.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) Wow, thanks for all the positive feedback everyone. It was fun to write, and I'm not too worried about Kopech. Kopech only recently turned 21, so he still has plenty of time to improve in maturity and command. He will absolutely have to cut down on the walks, but at this point I am not overly concerned.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 10:59 AM) Following up on the Kopech piece, here is a post covering the other five pitchers I saw in Birmingham. Spencer Adams gets a deep look with videos and quotes. I also put up a few words and at least one video for each of four relievers, including a surprising look from Jace Fry. The hitters piece is coming soon, along with interview transcripts. Glad to see the progress that Adams has been making. He only turned 21 in April and has already had some success in AA. Very glad to hear his velocity is up in the 92-94 range, with the potential for more to come still. Repeating AA to start 2018, with a possible AAA promotion mid season would not be bad for his development. I still think he has considerable potential to end up being a solid starter sown the line.

QUOTE (Quin @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 09:58 AM) Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal. We all would love a Robertson for Soto deal, and the Nationals inability to acquire Robertson or Holland is going to end up costing them at the deadline. If they are moving Soto they likely would prefer Hand to Robertson, but it's rumored the Padres want a huge return for him.

QUOTE (Quin @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 09:58 AM) Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal. We all would love a Robertson for Soto deal, and the Nationals inability to acquire Robertson or Holland is going to end up costing them at the deadline. If they are moving Soto they likely would prefer Hand to Robertson, but it's rumored the Padres want a huge return for him.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 10:27 AM) While all true, I highly doubt this will happen. This team could look drastically different on August 1st, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Moncada gets two full months with the Sox this year. My concern is that Moncada is not really a finished product yet. Defense is still fringy and he still strikes out quite a bit. Waiting until May/June 2018 to call him up might end up being better for his development overall and help us gain another season of control.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 09:57 PM) The guy is more than ready. I would not mind keeping Moncada in the minors until next June or so to gain additional control. It's not as if he could not use some more time in the minors before being moved to the majors full time. His defense still needs work and another few months in the minors can't hurt him. We have to remember he only recently turned 22 years old and we have no reason to rush him up and burn service time on a rebuilding club.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) Juan Soto at 12 is interesting. Soto at 12 seems too high for me right now. The talent is there, and he's still very young, but I feel he needs to prove a ton more before I'd place him in the top 15. Him not profiling to play center field also puts alot more pressure on his bat to play. I like Soto alot as a prospect still. Nice to see Hansen get some love, surprised he's in the top 50 though. Dunning should be getting some top 100 love I would imagine with a 1.94 ERA across two levels and solid peripheral numbers. Robert should firmly be in the top 20-40 range, and could be even higher a year from now.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 08:58 AM) If Kahnle starts closing games once Robertson is moved, and if successful, then he would look a lot like Thornburg in basic stats. Similar age, too. Probably better held than traded at this point. I'd lean towards holding on to Kahnle, as I doubt the right return would be on the table for him at this point. If he continues to pitch this well he could be a very valuable asset at the deadline next season.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 11:45 PM) Any chance we see Adams in AAA this season? Possibly, but I think he should finish out the season in AA and make the jump early to mid next season to AAA. He's still only 21 years old, no reason to rush him.

QUOTE (beautox @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 11:57 PM) I think Kahnle's value will be static regardless if he moved now or in the off-season. If he is moved now he gets the added bonus of putting up elite peripherals and relievers bringing back hauls at the deadline; if he gets moved in the off-season he has likely picked up the closers role and shown this year isn't a fluke but due to mechanical changes. Having said that Ken Giles in the off-season with two years of proven sucesss brought back the #43 prospect in Appel, #69 in Velasquez, Oberholtzer a spot starter / reliever, a lotto ticket relief arm in Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman a 5th starter prospect and SS/2B Jonathan Arau. Kahnle is on pace for 2.5WAR season and is in the top 15 of relievers in all of baseball. provided he finishes the year strong I would be looking for a similar package now and in the off-season something like Verdugo #50 + Calhoun #69 or Buehler #79 & Ruiz from the dodgers. Far too early to call Kahnle the next Giles. Giles was 24 years old when traded and already established. Teams will be skeptical due to the lack of track record, although the small sample size peripheral stats do support that Kahnle is coming around strongly. I'd dangle him, but expecting (2) top 100 prospects + more is a pipedream

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 10:10 PM) Vargas has given up 6 already tonight...not even out of third. Hadn't lost since May 22nd, 7-0 during that timeframe. Vargas is due for major regression. His FIP is 3.79 and his xFIP is 4.77 compared with his 2.62 ERA. He might be an all star, but don't be fooled into thinking he will keep up this level of production.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 03:34 PM) yea it's that easy. Tell it to Todd maybe the Sox will hire you as a hitting coach. I always wonder why I unignore your posts. Someone smarter than me with probability can calculate the odds of a 230 hitter fluking into a 265 season. I'm sure it's possible. Just like a coin can land on heads 4 times in a row. I'll take my chances that a patient hitter like Collins eventually figures things out vs. a player who rarely walks developing plate discipline. Sure, Collins is struggling at the plate, but he is still drawing a ton of walks which is not easy to teach. All he needs is a good hot streak to bring his numbers up to a very respectable level for a catching prospect.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 04:46 PM) The lesson as always should be if you're a non contender sell high on premium relievers. The Thornburg return is a nice place to start Kahnle discussions, but that underrates his value because A) Kahnle has pitched better than Thornburg did last season and B) teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers in July because their value is enhanced so significantly in the playoffs. If the Sox are able to deal Kahnle for a package centered around a top 50/multiple back half of the top 100 type prospects it would be a mistake not to do so. I think what we've seen from Kahnle this season is legitimate and I'd be targeting him if I were a contender, but looking at reliever attrition rates it's probably less than 50/50 he'd have a role to play on the next good White Sox team. You are totally correct in your thinking, but I just cannot imagine teams offering what we would ask in exchange for Kahnle.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 04:35 PM) It won't happen but the Nationals emptying out their farm system in exchange for Robertson, Kahnle, and Swarzak would make a lot of sense for both teams. Why lower our pricetag? It's the Nats that are desperate, not us. Sure, I'd absolutely be willing to deal any reliever on our team for the right price, but no need to go out of our way to help the Nationals. They screwed up by not signing Holland and ownership nixing the Robertson deal. Now it is going to end up costing them significantly more to improve the bullpen. Any impact piece is going to cost top prospects now, as there is no reason to settle for less. The market is thin as it is for relief help, and the Nationals will not be the only suitor out there for quality pen arms. I think it's funny that Nats fans think that Luzardo/Ward still could get a Robertson deal done.

QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 10:05 AM) Another benefit of a Robertson trade is that he is not a rental. A contending team will have Robertson for a post-season run, plus have him for another full year. I have a hard time believing the Red Sox would give up Devers, but if we could manage C.J. Chatham and Michael Chavis, I would be pretty happy with that. From National fan forum: "If I were Rizzo, I'd send a memo out to the 29 MLB GM's saying this: "Alright, you all know our bullpen sucks here in Washington. Let me make this really simple for you... I'm going to trade away any 5 prospects of your choice + Adam Eaton. I want 3 of your best relievers. I'll take the best offer any team makes. Thanks for your time." Sincerely, Mike Rizzo. If this happens, we win the World series and who cares about the next 10 years." Nationals fans know this is their best World Series chance in a generation this season and next, and they seem to be willing to do anything it takes to help the bullpen. Robles might not be off the table as much as we think come the deadline. Some fans are realistic, like the above poster from the Nats forum, but others insist on keeping Fedde/Robles/Kieboom/Soto, which obviously isn't going to happen now. The Nationals are perfectly primed to overpay and every GM out there knows this.

QUOTE (Soha @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 01:01 PM) I'd move them both for Soto, too. But honestly, Soto might be every bit as untouchable as Robles is. I would not trade both Robertson and Kahnle for just Soto. Kahnle on his own should net the Sox a player along the lines of Soto with how well he has pitched this season.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 02:47 PM) Historically this comment is wrong. The Sox had 17 consecutive winning seasons including 1960-1967. That's the 4th longest streak in MLB history. From 51`-67 they won 90 or more games seven times and from 51-60 you only played 154 games. They went to the series in 59 and won 90+ in 63-64-65. That's a successful franchise. What absolutely hurt the Sox in the 1960's was the social unrest, the perception that Comiskey Park became a "dangerous place" because of where it was located and the ethnic groups around it including people of color. The Sox couldn't do a damn thing about that. Ergo the "moving" rumors which began in 1968 (co incidentally when the Sox were about to have the three worst consecutive seasons in franchise history...) It's never going to be easy for the Sox to draw when you are competing against the Cubs and Wrigley Field. If/when the team gets more competitive I think the Sox could regularly draw in the upper 20's or even 30,000 per game. A rebuilding club just is not going to draw very well.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 01:56 PM) Even with his horrible numbers, he has managed to pull down $900k or more each of the last three seasons. Being 3 months from free agency, I am not sure the incentive for him to sign would be enough Maybe I'm nuts due to track record, but why would Ryan Madson and his contract be any more desirable than a rental of Swarzak for a contender? Swarzak is younger and arguably pitching just as good, if not better, than Madson.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 01:45 PM) I don't see any way he would agree to such a small amount lol He's on the wrong side of 30 and still pretty unlikely to get any significant contract extension in free agency. Has he earned himself a decent one year deal somewhere? Probably, but I don't see a 2-3 year agreement being on the table.

QUOTE (Username @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 12:37 PM) Reliever ERA and other counting stats are certainly quite volatile, because they pitch in small sample sizes. I'm not sure I agree that their underlying K%/BB%/FIP/SIERRA, etc. are that volatile. And that's what teams will judge him on. He's not some random guy with a decent fastball doing this. He has a filthy FB/changeup combination and the increase in command with his mechanics changes has been astronomical. Kahnle's issue will be track record. I'm not suggesting that he is a fluke or anything, but he certainly is not Chapman or Miller either. I think we end up keeping him, because if he continues to produce he could have terrific trade value at the deadline next year.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 12:17 PM) Song=crap. Flawed player with little likelihood of being MLB guy. That's not off the table at all for Swarzak. The guy has performed very strongly though. I think his lack of track record will bog him down despite a great 2017. Swarzak has quietly put up an excellent season in relief for the White Sox and has not given up an earned run since May 17th. He could be a under the radar addition for a team that needs bullpen help at a reasonable cost.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 12:26 PM) I think most people here severely overvalue what Kahnle could fetch in a trade. Give his short track record, his complete anonymity and the general volatility of relief pitchers, I would be shocked if the Sox got a single top 50 guy for him, let alone a package built around one. I think expecting a top 50 prospect for Kahnle is nuts given exactly what you just mentioned. I would not deal him for less than a top 50-100 esque prospect plus 1-2 more solid pieces.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 11:57 AM) I think if we could get legit top 50 prospect on the offensive side, plus another interesting guy or two that may fit in towards the back of our T30, you do it all day. A guy like Verdugo (LAD), Isan Diaz (MIL), Willy Calhoun (LAD), Derek Fischer (HOU) or Delvin Perez (STL) would be a huge win for Kahnle. Unfortunately, I have a really hard time seeing those guys getting moved for Kahnle. My guess is he becomes our closer to August, and if he performs well, Hahn will look to trade him in the winter, and give Jones the closer role for next year. Don't be surprised to see teams that have been quiet up until now make big splashes at the deadline to aid a world series push. I fully expect the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, etc. to make significant additions like the Indians and Cubs did last season.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 11:39 AM) Tough call. Track record hasn't been good. Is this a fluke? Since the Sox aren't going to be contending in my opinion for another two years if someone makes a reasonable offer you move him. The Tyler Thornburg deal is the most recent somewhat comparable trade of a reliever like Kahnle. I'm sure the Red Sox wish the had that trade back as Shaw has been outstanding.