9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Engel I’m assuming you are joking about, Rowland and Crede (you can add Jenks to the injuries list) were dogged by their physical limitations crashing into reality, but it’s still pretty rare for position players.

Dunn was already 30 or 31 when he crashed. Myers is 28.

I meant Eaton. 

1 minute ago, ewokpelts said:

I agreed to his point. Your comment was not needed or wanted. 

We still don’t have a legit superstar in our lineup under team control past 2022/23.

Jimenez doesn’t have the all around tools to make that kind of an impact on the field, his upside is JDM minus the OBP points...Anderson is limited (for now) by defensive lapses, so Robert is the best hope, simply because the odds of keeping Moncada in the fold long-term don’t look that great.

Baseball is, after all, a game of both entertainment and superstars...and we could still use that stabilizing veteran presence in the lineup.

5 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I meant Eaton. 

Just like Rowand, his style of play isn’t conducive to a long and productive career.  We sold as high as possible on him, one of the things Hahn did correctly.

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by caulfield12

51 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We still don’t have a legit superstar in our lineup under team control past 2022/23.

Jimenez doesn’t have the all around tools to make that kind of an impact on the field, his upside is JDM minus the OBP points...Anderson is limited (for now) by defensive lapses, so Robert is the best hope, simply because the odds of keeping Moncada in the fold long-term don’t look that great.

Baseball is, after all, a game of both entertainment and superstars...and we could still use that stabilizing veteran presence in the lineup.

Is Juan Soto a superstar? Because I envision Eloy’s numbers next season looking very similar to Soto’s (wRC+, defense and baserunning).

1 hour ago, ewokpelts said:

I agreed to his point. Your comment was not needed or wanted. 

Awesome, you posted on a public message board; if you want to have private conversations, move it to private messages. Tia.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Just like Rowand, his style of play isn’t conducive to a long and productive career.  We sold as high as possible on him, one of the things Hahn did correctly.

Okay. He's still one of many examples of players completely falling off in their prime. It probably happens in baseball more than any other sport. 

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The same way any team does, discount him 50-75 cents on the dollar...but probably play him everyday the first half of 2020, and look at the back of his baseball card.

They forced him into CF where he wasn’t comfortable defensively (Myers and Renfroe on both sides increased the pressure), gave him erratic playing time because Green was expected to get the team to play around .500, batted him all over the lineup.

Usually players just don’t fall apart in the middle of their prime.

Literally no one would take on Myers contract unless the padres threw in substantial prospects.

So you think the last three years of myers career have been what exactly? A fluke? Hes had 3 WAR combined. Hes only had ONE year in his career over 2.3 WAR. What do you mean falling apart in his prime. He's only had one year in his big league career where he was above average. His contract and Hosmer are untradeable if you expect the salaries to be picked up fully.

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We still don’t have a legit superstar in our lineup under team control past 2022/23.

Jimenez doesn’t have the all around tools to make that kind of an impact on the field, his upside is JDM minus the OBP points...Anderson is limited (for now) by defensive lapses, so Robert is the best hope, simply because the odds of keeping Moncada in the fold long-term don’t look that great.

Baseball is, after all, a game of both entertainment and superstars...and we could still use that stabilizing veteran presence in the lineup.

Most likely Robert will be the superstar under team control past 2023. 

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I’m sure the Jose Abreu contract for three years that nobody wants signed will eclipse $16 million, likely a similar number for just one season.  

That’s still roughly half our “new” wasted spending this year on Alonso, Jay, Herrera, Santana and Nova.

We wasted $18 million on Herrera alone, which is probably worse than Olivera because he will block Hahn from spending on the pen while they wait on a “bounce back” year out of him.

 

OH NO! THE WORLD IS ENDING!  

32 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Literally no one would take on Myers contract unless the padres threw in substantial prospects.

So you think the last three years of myers career have been what exactly? A fluke? Hes had 3 WAR combined. Hes only had ONE year in his career over 2.3 WAR. What do you mean falling apart in his prime. He's only had one year in his big league career where he was above average. His contract and Hosmer are untradeable if you expect the salaries to be picked up fully.

Wil Myers has 5 seasons worth of at-bats and 9.5 career fWAR.

An average of 1.9, and obviously teams (were he a free agent today), he would get about the same as Avi Garcia...maybe a tad less, although he at least can man CF.

Right now he’s getting paid like that 3.5 fWAR hitter (see Avi’s one breakout season), so if you had to choose Avi, Myers and Puig at roughly the same salary (the Padres would have to kick 50% back), or Castellanos and Ozuna at significantly more in years and dollars, it’s not such an open and shut case.

Ozuna has had the best peak years, but can’t play anything more than below average LF and has also been inconsistent throughout his career.

Ozuna could easily get $70-80 million for four years (due to his age) and Castellanos $50-65 million.  

For Myers’ bWAR, four of his first six years in the big leagues were 2.0, 3.2, 2.1 and 2.4.

And, in the end, none of those five are sure things to be 2+ hitters for the White Sox.   

12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

OH NO! THE WORLD IS ENDING!  

Just wait when Herrera and Colome come back with projected roles as 7th/8th inning high leverage guy and as closer respectively in 2020...when we’re supposed to actually be a competitive team.

They’ll give Lisle a statue before they eat $9.5 million in the first half of the season...you can double that with Colome, who was incredibly shaky down the stretch.

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by caulfield12

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Wil Myers has 5 seasons worth of at-bats and 9.5 career fWAR.

An average of 1.9, and obviously teams (were he a free agent today), he would get about the same as Avi Garcia...maybe a tad less, although he at least can man CF.

Right now he’s getting paid like that 3.5 fWAR hitter (see Avi’s one breakout season), so if you had to choose Avi, Myers and Puig at roughly the same salary (the Padres would have to kick 50% back), or Castellanos and Ozuna at significantly more in years and dollars, it’s not such an open and shut case.

Ozuna has had the best peak years, but can’t play anything more than below average LF and has also been inconsistent throughout his career.

Ozuna could easily get $70-80 million for four years (due to his age) and Castellanos $50-65 million.  

For Myers’ bWAR, four of his first six years in the big leagues were 2.0, 3.2, 2.1 and 2.4.

And, in the end, none of those five are sure things to be 2+ hitters for the White Sox.   

Avi Garcia was let go and signed for 3 million dollars. Wil Myers has 80 million dollars over the next 4 years. What are you rambling about? 

The padres would have to give 50%? How is 40 million equal to 3 million? 

Um, yes it's an open and shut case that ozuna is significantly better than myers.

Giving 18 million to a reliever who is still in baseball, has had a long and successful career, is somehow worse than the Padres giving 25 million to a guy who was never a big league caliber player and may be on his way to jail. Incredibly hot take there.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Giving 18 million to a reliever who is still in baseball, has had a long and successful career, is somehow worse than the Padres giving 25 million to a guy who was never a big league caliber player and may be on his way to jail. Incredibly hot take there.

His posts are not even worth reading at this point 

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

His posts are not even worth reading at this point 

Its just hilarious. He says that Ozuna is going to demand 80 million, and that needs to be considered when judging him vs myers. Yet myers costs 80 million over the next 4 years too... and myers has 1/2 the career WAR of Ozuna through the exact same age so how the shit are those two even comparable?

17 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

The Padres are stacked with pitching in their system but are lacking positional depth iirc.  They are going to have a much easier time trading to fill holes than we will.

Except that they're going to need to pay the veterans that they trade for, and don't have a ton of payroll flexibility. We're also better positioned to sign free agents because of our greater payroll flexibility.

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by Black_Jack29

On 9/20/2019 at 7:39 PM, Jack Parkman said:

He's not coming back until August of 2020. That's not enough time to get anything for him.  He has just enough time to re-establish himself and then hit FA. Launch him. Let someone else deal with the headache. 

Depends on what Rodon's arb numbers are going to be in 2020 and 2021. If he's costing $5M/year and the Sox still have a massive hole in their rotation late next season, they may want to take a flyer on him and see how he does in 2021.

9 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Depends on what Rodon's arb numbers are going to be in 2020 and 2021. If he's costing $5M/year and the Sox still have a massive hole in their rotation late next season, they may want to take a flyer on him and see how he does in 2021.

Still think Sox should approach Rodon this offseason with a like a 3 year $25M deal with a series of club options.  

20: $6M

21: $8M 

22: $11M

23-25: $14M club options

If he never returns to form, its not that big of a price to pay.  If he does, you have yourself an extremely valuable asset.  For Rodon, it gives him some assurances becuase if he comes back in 2020 and sucks, he likely gets non-tendered and may be looking at a cheap 1 year deal or even an milb deal in 2021.  Attractive for both sides, IMO.  

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by ChiSox59

I don't know. Tommy John surgery is not the career-killer that it used to be, but some guys are never the same after those injuries. If the Sox had given a deal like that to Danks after his shoulder surgery, they probably would've regretted it.

That said, the Sox are going to save a bunch of money by having Lucas, Cease, Lopez, and (presumably) Kopech in their rotation. While JR is unlikely to pay out the wazoo for Cole, they're going to pay for at least one veteran starter and having $3M cover 80% of the rotation fees up a ton of cash. If you added a $5M buyout to 2022, the contract offer that you outlined sounds reasonable. Then again, isn't Rodon a Boras client? I'm not sure how that'll affect things.

 

Edited October 3, 20196 yr by Black_Jack29

9 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I don't know. Tommy John surgery is not the career-killer that it used to be, but some guys are never the same after those injuries. If the Sox had given a deal like that to Danks after his shoulder surgery, they probably would've regretted it.

That said, the Sox are going to save a bunch of money by having Lucas, Cease, Lopez, and (presumably) Kopech in their rotation. While JR is unlikely to pay out the wazoo for Cole, they're going to pay for at least one veteran starter and having $3M cover 80% of the rotation fees up a ton of cash. If you added a $5M buyout to 2022, the contract offer that you outlined sounds reasonable. Then again, isn't Rodon a Boras client? I'm not sure how that'll affect things.

 

An $8.5M AAV isn't going to kill the Sox even if Rodon never throws another major league pitch.  I think it would be fantastic gamble.  My guess is Rodon would want more $, otherwise he'd rather bet on himself.  

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

An $8.5M AAV isn't going to kill the Sox even if Rodon never throws another major league pitch.  I think it would be fantastic gamble.  My guess is Rodon would want more $, otherwise he'd rather bet on himself.  

That is true, and that's roughly what Nova made this season. Rodon would be a decent insurance policy for 2021/22. Outside of Lucas being the ace and Lopez being an acceptable back-of-the-rotation guy, there's a ton of uncertainty there.

41 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Still think Sox should approach Rodon this offseason with a like a 3 year $25M deal with a series of club options.  

20: $6M

21: $8M 

22: $11M

23-25: $14M club options

If he never returns to form, its not that big of a price to pay.  If he does, you have yourself an extremely valuable asset.  For Rodon, it gives him some assurances becuase if he comes back in 2020 and sucks, he likely gets non-tendered and may be looking at a cheap 1 year deal or even an milb deal in 2021.  Attractive for both sides, IMO.  

Even if they do that, Carlos Rodon's agent is Scott Boras. The only reason they'd sign such a contract is if they think Rodon will never pitch again.

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Even if they do that, Carlos Rodon's agent is Scott Boras. The only reason they'd sign such a contract is if they think Rodon will never pitch again.

Or Carlos Rodon wants to the sign the contract.  

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Or Carlos Rodon wants to the sign the contract.  

Then he will be changing agents. Seriously, we saw this with the Danks brothers. 

You do not keep Scott Boras as your agent to sign a deal like that. 

There is no way we should be offering Rodon anything when he hits FA.  Let him walk.