https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31943005/there-no-reason-go-halfway-next-chicago-cubs-mlb-trade-deadline-teardown

My vote is only a guess, but I'm sure Cub fans won't be as patient as in the past. Ricketts may find that he will have to do more than stand by the Harry Caray statue with an Old Style to pacify the Cub cult.

I'd say 2022, which for whatever reason was not a poll option. This assumes there is a season and also the owners get their wish and expand to a garbage 16 + team playoff. 75-83 wins will be the cutoff under this scheme, where the regular season is trash, similar to the NHL and NBA, and any team with a pulse will make it.

The Cubs got flexibility with these moves, only have $41M committed for next year (Heyward the last garbage contract), and I expect the Cubs to field a minimum $100M level payroll on Opening Day. They can always trade pieces off in July if it's going poorly. Kimbrel was the only player they traded under contract beyond 2021.

If MLB retains the current 10 team playoff scheme, I'd say it would take to at least 2023-2024 for the Cubs to earn a spot.

Edited August 3, 20214 yr by South Side Hit Men

Why isn’t 2021 an option?

Going to take at least a few years. the real driver is going to be the pitching staff. They have that young guy braiyln edwards? I think that's his name ... he's supposed to be legit, but outside of that? Their rotation is going to be weak for a few years until they can buy one again. Bats wise? Again, it's not like before where they had the Eloy's and Javy's coming up. I think being the Cubs and ability to take on payroll/fill out Wrigley that you'll see a bunch of those Joc Pederson type signings ... 1-2 years deals they can flip. bounce back guys. they have a nice team up the middle with hoerner and madrigal ... you can usually add some really cheap power which should pair well with the aforementioned guys ... 

Overall though? 2022 aint happening. 2023 aint happening. 2024 will be the year some of the talent bubbles up and take some lumps. 2025 should be a year where they make a nice run at the playoffs. 2026 is probably a good guess. so many variables though

 

 

This made me look up how Ed Howard is doing. Looks like he's also been hit hard by having to jump straight to A ball, slashing .200/.253/.528.

Looking back, if we had taken him over Crochet/Detmers and he was putting those numbers up, we'd be in extreme panic mode.

2024 but that's if everything goes right.  I think it's more like 2025.  THere's a reason they didn't do the Glasnow trade.  The year they get of Glasnow still likely falls out of their window for contention anyways.  I know their owners have promised they will be in contention next year but the Sox tried retooling on the fly and it failed outside of 2008.  

The cubs have little base to build on from the trades.  They have no core of Moncada, Kopech, Robert, Cease, Dunning, Jimenez, Giolito, Anderson, Abreu, etc. on which to build.

Soon after the rebuild was declared you could squint and see potential with the Sox.  What is there with the cubs?   Madrigal and Armstrong?????

 

 

18 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

The cubs have little base to build on from the trades.  They have no core of Moncada, Kopech, Robert, Cease, Dunning, Jimenez, Giolito, Anderson, Abreu, etc. on which to build.

Soon after the rebuild was declared you could squint and see potential with the Sox.  What is there with the cubs?   Madrigal and Armstrong?????

 

 

I think they see Contreras as their version of Abreu.  But he's still not under team control past 2023 and his regression has been pretty stark.  I could see Jose winning an MVP after 2018.  I can't see it with Contreras.  I suppose Madrigal is their TA.  He still hasn't played a game for them.  They do have Happ, who if he rebounds, could be very good.  But I also don't think Happ has the ceiling that someone like Moncada has.  But the pitching is pretty bleak.  And the guys they have acquired are still a little while away. 

 

Realistically, they use the payroll they have next year to lock up Contreras long term and maybe someone like Hendricks as well.  And they likely try to make a free agent splash but it'll likely be more modest.

The only thing they will be playing for in the foreseeable future is the CrossTown Cup, but they will be DENIED.