47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I didn't even realize now much the defense had killed Giolito.  I don't know what the leaders in spread between ERA and defensive adjusted ERA is, but 1.12 runs of difference, if it isn't the leader, has to be damned close.  This year the MLB league average era is 3.97 current, so while we are talking about a drop off from last year of about 3/4 of a run, we are no longer talking about almost 2 runs worse, which is a huge difference.

All of the ridiculous hyperbole about non-tendering Lucas is misguided.  Get the guy a real defense, and he should be back to normal.

For guys who have pitched 100+ innings, the largest "underperform" between ERA and expected ERA in baseball are Lucas Giolito and Hunter Green. If you flip to FIP, Giolito is still high, But Patrick Corbin and his 6.81 ERA win that round because his FIP is in the 4s. 

The biggest overperformer in baseball based on FIP and 2nd biggest overperformer based on xERA is one Johnny Cueto. 

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I didn't even realize now much the defense had killed Giolito.  I don't know what the leaders in spread between ERA and defensive adjusted ERA is, but 1.12 runs of difference, if it isn't the leader, has to be damned close.  This year the MLB league average era is 3.97 current, so while we are talking about a drop off from last year of about 3/4 of a run, we are no longer talking about almost 2 runs worse, which is a huge difference.

All of the ridiculous hyperbole about non-tendering Lucas is misguided.  Get the guy a real defense, and he should be back to normal.

https://razzball.com/playerrater-fipvera/

Found this. Just type in ># in the IP to sort out the relievers.

As of today, it's now Corbin #1, Giolito #2.

Sorry for the long post - been thinking about this a bit, but I've been noticing something a little bit different with Gio's mechanics... specifically on the finishing side.

Long story short, it seems like in 2020 (didn't look at 2021), his follow-through was much leggier - as in, he would land and follow through with a much more pronounced knee bend on his front leg. I have no expertise in pitching mechanics, but I do know that: 1) stride and landing are crucially important to velocity; 2) sometimes upper body issues can manifest themselves in the legs (some form of compensation).

Below are 4 screen shots from home starts - two from his 2020 no hitter, and two from 2022 against the Angels.

1) 2020 Fastball:

2) 2022 Fastball:

I've tried grabbing exact same frames, but I'm dealing with YouTube screenshots here (no frame-by-frame available), but in watching / pausing many times, it looks like his motion in 2020 was more toward home plate, and 2022 seems to be more toward the first base side / torsional (less longitudinal)

3) 2020 Changeup:

4) 2022 Changeup:

Here's the main difference I see. In all clips of 2020, you can see the landing and finish like you see above in image (3). In 2022, his finish is much more straight-legged. To me (again, I'm NOT an expert in baseball mechanics... just hockey stuff), this suggests either a) less of a forward push off of his back leg (less momentum to absorb), or b) more strain on his knee, or c) I don't know wtf I'm talking about, but it looks different anyways.

To me, the biggest outward symptom of Gio's 2022 season has been a dip in velocity from 94~97 to 90~93. That's either indicative of aging (not likely yet at age 28...?), injury (maybe), or a change in mechanics. No, you don't NEED velocity to succeed, but if you've built your repertoire based on throwing at one velocity and are now throwing softer, you're going to need to change something.

28 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Sorry for the long post - been thinking about this a bit, but I've been noticing something a little bit different with Gio's mechanics... specifically on the finishing side.

Long story short, it seems like in 2020 (didn't look at 2021), his follow-through was much leggier - as in, he would land and follow through with a much more pronounced knee bend on his front leg. I have no expertise in pitching mechanics, but I do know that: 1) stride and landing are crucially important to velocity; 2) sometimes upper body issues can manifest themselves in the legs (some form of compensation).

Below are 4 screen shots from home starts - two from his 2020 no hitter, and two from 2022 against the Angels.

1) 2020 Fastball:

2) 2022 Fastball:

I've tried grabbing exact same frames, but I'm dealing with YouTube screenshots here (no frame-by-frame available), but in watching / pausing many times, it looks like his motion in 2020 was more toward home plate, and 2022 seems to be more toward the first base side / torsional (less longitudinal)

3) 2020 Changeup:

4) 2022 Changeup:

Here's the main difference I see. In all clips of 2020, you can see the landing and finish like you see above in image (3). In 2022, his finish is much more straight-legged. To me (again, I'm NOT an expert in baseball mechanics... just hockey stuff), this suggests either a) less of a forward push off of his back leg (less momentum to absorb), or b) more strain on his knee, or c) I don't know wtf I'm talking about, but it looks different anyways.

To me, the biggest outward symptom of Gio's 2022 season has been a dip in velocity from 94~97 to 90~93. That's either indicative of aging (not likely yet at age 28...?), injury (maybe), or a change in mechanics. No, you don't NEED velocity to succeed, but if you've built your repertoire based on throwing at one velocity and are now throwing softer, you're going to need to change something.

How much could gaining 20 pounds of muscle impact his mechanics?

6 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

How much could gaining 20 pounds of muscle impact his mechanics?

Probably depends on where the muscle is, right?

No expert either but to me in those picks I noticed his plant foot in 20022 appears way right of home plate which might lead to coming across his body rather than going forward toward home plate???