ZIPS projection story...

[Lip Man 1]

Sox Machine takes a look at them:

https://soxmachine.com/2025/11/2026-zips-projections-show-where-white-sox-need-to-add-meat-to-rosters-skeleton

[WhiteSox2023]

So in 2+ years since being named GM, Getz has built a lineup that is projected to average 1.5 WAR per starter, and one of the WAR leaders in the lineup in Robert (2.7) is likely going to be on another team for at least half the season or sooner, if he doesn’t get injured.  Isn’t 2.0 WAR considered to be league average?  Hopefully, all the young guys hit because that isn’t very good at first glance.

Edited November 26 by WhiteSox2023

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

So in 2+ years since being named GM, Getz has built a lineup that is projected to average 1.5 WAR per starter, and one of the WAR leaders in the lineup in Robert (2.7) is likely going to be on another team for at least half the season or sooner, if he doesn’t get injured.  Isn’t 2.0 WAR considered to be league average?  Hopefully, all the young guys hit because that isn’t very good at first glance.

Shhhh, it’s someone else’s fault…

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

So in 2+ years since being named GM, Getz has built a lineup that is projected to average 1.5 WAR per starter, and one of the WAR leaders in the lineup in Robert (2.7) is likely going to be on another team for at least half the season or sooner, if he doesn’t get injured.  Isn’t 2.0 WAR considered to be league average?  Hopefully, all the young guys hit because that isn’t very good at first glance.

I think it's closer to 1.5, but point still stands.

fWAR had Meidroth leading entire team at 3.1, that might be even scarier

[WBWSF]

Brodie Brazil has a very interesting new video on Youtube. He maintains the White Sox are a sleeping giant of a franchise.

[WhiteSox2023]

12 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Brodie Brazil has a very interesting new video on Youtube. He maintains the White Sox are a sleeping giant of a franchise.

Brodie needs to put down the pipe.

[vilehoopster]

It should be no surprise that any sort of projection has the White Sox as a below average team, including this ZIPS projection; no surprises there. But I have a couple problems. 

1) There seems to be a real problem with the Colson Montgomery projection. The Sox Machine article described it as "laughably pessimistic", and I have to agree. I was listening to a podcast yesterday that was discussing Colson. It said that his defensive metrics were really, really good; his defensive numbers put him among the top 5 or 6 defensive shortstops in baseball. The podcast guys was saying that with little improvement of his offense, and he approaches 30 home runs, his War will be around 5. The guy went further and said that if he can improve his OBP (batting average and walks) and hit over 35 home runs, he could have a War of between 7 & 8.

2) Going on the stated premise that a 2.0 War is average, I have a real hard time accepting a projected War of 1.9 from our catching trio. I just can't believe that those three (baring injury) are going to accumulate numbers that put them below average, especially with what I expect from them offensively.  That one also strikes me a "laughably pessimistic".  

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Brodie Brazil has a very interesting new video on Youtube. He maintains the White Sox are a sleeping giant of a franchise.

They will be when Ishbia takes control.

Until then JR says, "You'll get nothing and like it!"

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, vilehoopster said:

It should be no surprise that any sort of projection has the White Sox as a below average team, including this ZIPS projection; no surprises there. But I have a couple problems. 

1) There seems to be a real problem with the Colson Montgomery projection. The Sox Machine article described it as "laughably pessimistic", and I have to agree. I was listening to a podcast yesterday that was discussing Colson. It said that his defensive metrics were really, really good; his defensive numbers put him among the top 5 or 6 defensive shortstops in baseball. The podcast guys was saying that with little improvement of his offense, and he approaches 30 home runs, his War will be around 5. The guy went further and said that if he can improve his OBP (batting average and walks) and hit over 35 home runs, he could have a War of between 7 & 8.

2) Going on the stated premise that a 2.0 War is average, I have a real hard time accepting a projected War of 1.9 from our catching trio. I just can't believe that those three (baring injury) are going to accumulate numbers that put them below average, especially with what I expect from them offensively.  That one also strikes me a "laughably pessimistic".  

#1 is just assuming Sophomore slump. Teams are going to figure out how to stop Colson from beating them and they're just going to pound him. I agree with you on #2, mostly because the biggest ding against Quero's defense goes away, somewhat. 

Colson could really make Billy Carlson expendable if he could really stick at SS. He could grow off of the position and the Sox just drafted 4 shortstops last year, have Bonemer, and may very well draw a high pick, and take another shortstop. It really makes the concern trolling here about the Sox not having a top SS in the game in the organization laughable. 

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

They will be when Ishbia takes control.

Until then JR says, "You'll get nothing and like it!"

I look forward to the non-stop World Series victories you just guaranteed. 

[Lip Man 1]

34 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I look forward to the non-stop World Series victories you just guaranteed. 

The White Sox were one of the best franchises in baseball from 1990-1994 and from 2000-2006.

The can be again.

No guarantees, I'd be VERY happy, repeat VERY happy if they could consistently string together winning seasons. You do that with expanded playoffs, you have a chance.

Let's put it this way Westy, having a winning record as opposed to be a historically inept and embarrassed bottom feeder is REAL progress, that's not happening with JR, based on Ishbia's public comments (unlike JR who doesn't talk to the media) I'll take my chances.

Oh another advantage is Getz will be quickly fired when that takes place.

Happy, happy...joy joy!  

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The White Sox were one of the best franchises in baseball from 1990-1994 and from 2000-2006.

The can be again.

No guarantees, I'd be VERY happy, repeat VERY happy if they could consistently string together winning seasons. You do that with expanded playoffs, you have a chance.

Let's put it this way Westy, having a winning record as opposed to be a historically inept and embarrassed bottom feeder is REAL progress, that's not happening with JR, based on Ishbia's public comments (unlike JR who doesn't talk to the media) I'll take my chances.

Oh another advantage is Getz will be quickly fired when that takes place.

Happy, happy...joy joy!  

Ren and Stimpy quotes lol?

That's right out of the Jason Benetti playbook.

[WestEddy]

54 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The White Sox were one of the best franchises in baseball from 1990-1994 and from 2000-2006.

The can be again.

No guarantees, I'd be VERY happy, repeat VERY happy if they could consistently string together winning seasons. You do that with expanded playoffs, you have a chance.

Let's put it this way Westy, having a winning record as opposed to be a historically inept and embarrassed bottom feeder is REAL progress, that's not happening with JR, based on Ishbia's public comments (unlike JR who doesn't talk to the media) I'll take my chances.

Oh another advantage is Getz will be quickly fired when that takes place.

Happy, happy...joy joy!  

Again, you wouldn't. Maybe you'd be happy if a post-Reinsdorf White Sox won, but if this franchise won under JR, you'd still try to ruin it for everyone by whining about every single advancement like you do, now. You have a history, too. 

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Again, you wouldn't. Maybe you'd be happy if a post-Reinsdorf White Sox won, but if this franchise won under JR, you'd still try to ruin it for everyone by whining about every single advancement like you do, now. You have a history, too. 

I was very happy when they won in 2005 and have been accused in the past of setting the bar to low because to me just having a winning season (at least 82 wins) is a positive on the year.

That's what JR has done to the fan base, just having a winning season is a reason to celebrate. And it wasn't always like this, there was a time when he had earned the benefit of the doubt. From 1981 through 2006 they had 16 winning years and most times were in contention for the division.

Since 2007? One of the worst teams in baseball. 

My opinion or comments shouldn't impact you one iota. Trying to "ruin" it for everyone? Since when do you give a s#$% about what I say or my opinion?

If what I say or write bothers you at this forum I'd submit the issue is on you. 

I'll tell you what bothers me, and it should bother you too, that this franchise is incompetent, dysfunctional and inept. A laughing stock. A few incremental improvements don't amount to much not when you consider how far behind they are even compared to teams in their own division. The standings don't lie.

Getz is a joke passing himself off as a G.M. He sucked as a player, he sucked as the person in charge of the minor league system and he sucks as the G.M.

He was hired because he kissed JR's rear end and from what I was told specifically undercut Hahn and Williams in order to get the job. (Not saying those two didn't deserve to be fired).

But if you think he's doing a good job that's OK, you're entitled to your belief. And you having that belief doesn't ruin it for me even if I think that attitude is naive and fails to see reality.

I respect you as a Sox fan though I will give you that.    

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Again, you wouldn't. Maybe you'd be happy if a post-Reinsdorf White Sox won, but if this franchise won under JR, you'd still try to ruin it for everyone by whining about every single advancement like you do, now. You have a history, too. 

The sun shines on a dog’s ass every once in a while.  One championship and six playoff losses in 44 year of ownership is nothing to be proud of.  Those are embarrassing numbers that defy the odds.

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Again, you wouldn't. Maybe you'd be happy if a post-Reinsdorf White Sox won, but if this franchise won under JR, you'd still try to ruin it for everyone by whining about every single advancement like you do, now. You have a history, too. 

Just stop with this.  No one complained after 2005.  Not even Lip, me, or any of the others who ruin your life by not liking bad baseball. 

[nrockway]

16 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

It should be no surprise that any sort of projection has the White Sox as a below average team, including this ZIPS projection; no surprises there. But I have a couple problems. 

1) There seems to be a real problem with the Colson Montgomery projection. The Sox Machine article described it as "laughably pessimistic", and I have to agree. I was listening to a podcast yesterday that was discussing Colson. It said that his defensive metrics were really, really good; his defensive numbers put him among the top 5 or 6 defensive shortstops in baseball. The podcast guys was saying that with little improvement of his offense, and he approaches 30 home runs, his War will be around 5. The guy went further and said that if he can improve his OBP (batting average and walks) and hit over 35 home runs, he could have a War of between 7 & 8.

2) Going on the stated premise that a 2.0 War is average, I have a real hard time accepting a projected War of 1.9 from our catching trio. I just can't believe that those three (baring injury) are going to accumulate numbers that put them below average, especially with what I expect from them offensively.  That one also strikes me a "laughably pessimistic".  

ZIPS is even less useful than that projection that a bunch of high schoolers came up with. Its predictive value is basically nil, particularly for young players, and is even worse at determining team records. it surprises me that Fangraphs still publishes it

[southsider2k5]

18 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

It should be no surprise that any sort of projection has the White Sox as a below average team, including this ZIPS projection; no surprises there. But I have a couple problems. 

1) There seems to be a real problem with the Colson Montgomery projection. The Sox Machine article described it as "laughably pessimistic", and I have to agree. I was listening to a podcast yesterday that was discussing Colson. It said that his defensive metrics were really, really good; his defensive numbers put him among the top 5 or 6 defensive shortstops in baseball. The podcast guys was saying that with little improvement of his offense, and he approaches 30 home runs, his War will be around 5. The guy went further and said that if he can improve his OBP (batting average and walks) and hit over 35 home runs, he could have a War of between 7 & 8.

2) Going on the stated premise that a 2.0 War is average, I have a real hard time accepting a projected War of 1.9 from our catching trio. I just can't believe that those three (baring injury) are going to accumulate numbers that put them below average, especially with what I expect from them offensively.  That one also strikes me a "laughably pessimistic".  

As to #1, I am guessing the algos are taking in his massive slump into the equation here.  Keep in mind it was only months ago he was so unplayable in AAA they shipped him back to Arizona to rebuild him.  When you discuss possible outcomes you can't leave that part out.  Was that mental?  Was that the Colson we get when his back bothers him?  We never really got told the why of things go so bad to have a better idea of the likelihood of a repeat.

[WestEddy]

13 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

But if you think he's doing a good job that's OK, you're entitled to your belief. And you having that belief doesn't ruin it for me even if I think that attitude is naive and fails to see reality.

I want to see how these moves play out. A bunch here have decided on day one that he sucked, didn't deserve the job, and that every single move he made was insignificant, and also ... sucked. By pushing back on the people who will deride every single development, I have become a "Getz-lover" and "naive". I see reality just fine. I don't need to make sure everybody sees reality the exact same way I do like the people who barrel in and make sure everyone knows that JR is cheap, and that every move Getz makes sucks. 

Edited Saturday at 06:36 PM by WestEddy

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

I want to see how these moves play out. A bunch here have decided on day one that he sucked, didn't deserve the job, and that every single move he made was insignificant, and also ... sucked. By pushing back on the people who will deride every single development, I have become a "Getz-lover" and "naive". I see reality just fine. I don't need to make sure everybody sees reality the exact same way I do like the people who barrel in and make sure everyone knows that JR is cheap, and that every move Getz makes sucks. 

Fair enough but just a reminder, this is going to be year #3 coming up for Getz as far as full seasons are concerned.

If they lose 100 games again this year I'll be very interested on what your take is going to be. For that matter even if they lose 90+ and not hit 100. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Fair enough but just a reminder, this is going to be year #3 coming up for Getz as far as full seasons are concerned.

If they lose 100 games again this year I'll be very interested on what your take is going to be. For that matter even if they lose 90+ and not hit 100. 

Didn't have the budget/resources to succeed.

Longer Rule 5 draft thread than one for signing an actual player in FA.

Mandate was to cut payroll...well, there is the curious case of Luis Robert to counter that.

If I'm Getz, would rather have that money to spend on other players rather than doubling down on risk.

He could have kept Cease in a somewhat similar situation...waiting for his value to reinflate. But we might never know who made the ultimate decision there to trade him.

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I want to see how these moves play out. A bunch here have decided on day one that he sucked, didn't deserve the job, and that every single move he made was insignificant, and also ... sucked. By pushing back on the people who will deride every single development, I have become a "Getz-lover" and "naive". I see reality just fine. I don't need to make sure everybody sees reality the exact same way I do like the people who barrel in and make sure everyone knows that JR is cheap, and that every move Getz makes sucks. 

Cool, then you wait and see.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I want to see how these moves play out. A bunch here have decided on day one that he sucked, didn't deserve the job, and that every single move he made was insignificant, and also ... sucked. By pushing back on the people who will deride every single development, I have become a "Getz-lover" and "naive". I see reality just fine. I don't need to make sure everybody sees reality the exact same way I do like the people who barrel in and make sure everyone knows that JR is cheap, and that every move Getz makes sucks. 

What evidence exists on the minor league/player development side that would have merited a promotion to GM?

There was already a decent amount of history with the organization.

The two guys directly ahead of him still don't have jobs in baseball, with Jeremy Haber habing been much closer to GM on the executive hierarchy ladder than Getz.

Yet no team was willing to give Haber even an Asst GM position...a lateral move at best.

 

Edited Saturday at 11:26 PM by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What evidence exists on the minor league/player development side that would have merited a promotion to GM?

There was already a decent amount of history with the organization.

The two guys directly ahead of him still don't have jobs in baseball, with Jeremy Haber habing been much closer to GM on the executive hierarchy ladder than Getz.

Yet no team was willing to give Haber even an Asst GM position...a lateral move at best.

 

You can just go back, find the other 2 or 3 times this blew up in a string, and reread those. I've answered all these questions, so now it's incumbent upon you to tell us how Getz didn't do his job as director of development. Don't whine about the "lack of major stars" or whatnot, give us names of players who were can't-miss, and he personally derailed them. Maybe you have inter-office emails where KW and Hahn were begging him to hire a Senior Pitching Advisor, or to buy Trajekt machines, and he defied them. I mean, you must have some tangible, factual evidence that Chris Getz did not deserve to be promoted to GM. You refer to a "decent amount of history". Tell us, then about this history you are privy to. 

[WhiteSox2023]

12 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

You can just go back, find the other 2 or 3 times this blew up in a string, and reread those. I've answered all these questions, so now it's incumbent upon you to tell us how Getz didn't do his job as director of development. Don't whine about the "lack of major stars" or whatnot, give us names of players who were can't-miss, and he personally derailed them. Maybe you have inter-office emails where KW and Hahn were begging him to hire a Senior Pitching Advisor, or to buy Trajekt machines, and he defied them. I mean, you must have some tangible, factual evidence that Chris Getz did not deserve to be promoted to GM. You refer to a "decent amount of history". Tell us, then about this history you are privy to. 

His free agency moves and trades since being named GM are enough to know he wasn’t ready for the promotion.

Edited Saturday at 11:57 PM by WhiteSox2023