OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kelenic can start the season in AAA.  Unless he absolutely destroys the baseball this spring, that should be the no doubt plan.  He was fucking dreadful last year and we should make him prove himself over a longer period before committing to him at the major league level.

Most likely spring training sorts this stuff out, but if all things are equal, it tells us what the Sox think of Baldwin, that they are still looking to replace him with marginal players already.  It also tells us about them looking for a couple of more short term wins vs development time for Baldwin. 

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Most likely spring training sorts this stuff out, but if all things are equal, it tells us what the Sox think of Baldwin, that they are still looking to replace him with marginal players already.  It also tells us about them looking for a couple of more short term wins vs development time for Baldwin. 

I don't think it necessarily says what they think of Baldwin. If hebwas out of options, yes. But since he has that flexibility I think it allows them to see if anyone else can be a decent players going forward and bring Baldwin up when ine of them fails.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Most likely spring training sorts this stuff out, but if all things are equal, it tells us what the Sox think of Baldwin, that they are still looking to replace him with marginal players already.  It also tells us about them looking for a couple of more short term wins vs development time for Baldwin. 

Where did you get this from? We're just fans spit-balling. I'm pretty sure none of us work in the front office. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Here is what I’m expecting on the positional side assuming no further injuries or trades.

Positional Group:

• IF: Murakami (L), Meidroth (R), Montgomery (L), Vargas (R), Sosa (R)
• OF: Hayes (R), Benintendi (L), Baldwin (S), Acuna (S), Pereira (R)
• CA: Teel (L), Quero (S), Lee (R)

Main Lineup vs. RHP:

1. Meidroth, 2B (R)
2. Teel, CA (L)
3. Montgomery, SS (L)
4. Murakami, 1B (L)
5. Vargas, 3B (R)
6. Benintendi, LF (L)
7. Hayes, RF (R)
8. Quero, DH (S)
9. Baldwin, CF (S)

Main Lineup vs. LHP:

1. Meidroth, 2B (R)
2. Vargas, 3B (R)
3. Hayes, LF (R)
4. Montgomery, SS (L)
5. Sosa, DH (R)
6. Quero, CA (S)
7. Murakami, 1B (L)
8. Pereira, RF (R)
9. Acuna, CF (S)

As you can see above, there is fairly good balance against both RHP & LHP.  I don’t see much of a role for Lee, but I can see an argument for holding him for a month and hoping a team suffers a catcher injury and Lee suddenly becomes tradable for something.  After that, maybe Kelenic is ready for a spot or even Antonacci?

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Where did you get this from? We're just fans spit-balling. I'm pretty sure none of us work in the front office. 

I guess I could go with bad.

[caulfield12]

On 2/7/2026 at 12:59 AM, vilehoopster said:

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

Sosa is going to be the choice over Meidroth?  That only seems like a 1/4 or 1/5 probability…

Maybe at DH…

But who knows, maybe Lenyn is the completely unexpected star of the WBC.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Most likely spring training sorts this stuff out, but if all things are equal, it tells us what the Sox think of Baldwin, that they are still looking to replace him with marginal players already.  It also tells us about them looking for a couple of more short term wins vs development time for Baldwin. 

I don't understand your answer, so I'll start over. I think like in the IF, Getz is accumulating post-hype dudes. Kelenic, Acuña and Pereira are all highly touted. If they can figure one of them out, they have an outfielder for 5 years. And then you have Baldwin who can hit. I don't think they're trying to "replace" Baldwin. They see Baldwin as some uber-utility guy who can get 450-500 PAs all over the field. They need bats. 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I don't understand your answer, so I'll start over. I think like in the IF, Getz is accumulating post-hype dudes. Kelenic, Acuña and Pereira are all highly touted. If they can figure one of them out, they have an outfielder for 5 years. And then you have Baldwin who can hit. I don't think they're trying to "replace" Baldwin. They see Baldwin as some uber-utility guy who can get 450-500 PAs all over the field. They need bats. 

Isn't Kelenic only 2-3 years of control remaining?

Pretty much has to be a flip candidate, like Murakami.

[Chicago White Sox]

On the pitching side, here is how I see things shaking pending no more injuries or trades:

Rotation:

1. Smith (R)
2. Kay (L)
3. Martin (R)
4. Burke (R)
5. Fedde (R)

Bullpen: 

• CL: Dominguez (R)
• SU: Leasure (R)
• SU: Taylor (R)
• MR: Newcomb (L)
• MR: Vasil (R)
• MR: Gilbert (R)
• MR: Hicks (R)
• LR: Paez (R)

Pitching staff feels mostly locked in at this point.  While the last two rotation spots may technically be open, I’d be shocked if anyone took over Burke & Fedde to start the season.  That being said, I really think McDougal could be up by May.   He is not eligible for PPI, so there is zero reason to force him onto the OD roster.  However, after 4 to 8 weeks in Charlotte I think he could get the call if all goes well.

As such, that just leaves the final two bullpen spots as legitimate battles, which I expect to go to one RH and one LH.  The second LH reliever role is wide open at the moment and I only went with Gilbert due to option status.  I think there is a high possibility of Murphy winning this role.  Beyond those two, both Eisert and Borucki are possibilities, but feel like they will start at Charlotte baring big camps.

As for the RH side, Paez is the hands down favorite for the last spot.  I don’t think he’s a guarantee, but I think the Sox believe he‘s a long term major league starter and will try their best to keep on the roster this season.  His Rule 5 counterpart is certainly another guy who will be pushing for a spot, but Alberto is going to need a massive camp to jump Paez.  Gonzalez has one option left but is probably Paez’s biggest immediate threat, while Berroa is probably his biggest long term threat once healthy.  I wouldn’t be shocked if a NRI guy also pushed for a spot, but my guess is the Sox would carry Paez into the season before promoting one of them.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Isn't Kelenic only 2-3 years of control remaining?

Pretty much has to be a flip candidate, like Murakami.

Neither guy has to be a flip candidate.  By 2027 this team will be serious about trying to compete.  In the unlikely event Kelenic is good, he can be a corner OF for us in two competitive seasons.  And with essentially no long term payroll on the books, Murakami shouldn’t be an impossible resign unless he goes full Babe Ruth.

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I don't understand your answer, so I'll start over. I think like in the IF, Getz is accumulating post-hype dudes. Kelenic, Acuña and Pereira are all highly touted. If they can figure one of them out, they have an outfielder for 5 years. And then you have Baldwin who can hit. I don't think they're trying to "replace" Baldwin. They see Baldwin as some uber-utility guy who can get 450-500 PAs all over the field. They need bats. 

 What happened to that rant about none of us working in the front office to know what the team is thinking?

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m growing optimistic about this team’s chances of competing this year.  While the OF has uncertainty to it, I like the broader group of positional players Getz has put together and feel like potential reinforcements in Montgomery and Antonacci will help in fill in any gaps.  Murakami and Colson being middle of the lineup anchors is essential to that though, so any shortfalls there and my hope goes out the window.

The rotation is without question the big wild card.  This is a poor group on paper, perhaps the worst in baseball.  However, Smith is a legit SP and I truly believe in Burke’s talent and fully expect a rebound.  From there, you got to hope that one of Kay or Martin can surprise a bit and maintain a spot.  If so, I can see some combo of McDougal, Sandlin, Schultz, Smith, & Thorpe upgrading the last two spots by midseason.  As I just posted, I expect Tanner to come fairly quick and likely knock out Fedde.  The other kids could be ready by June or July.  No guarantees these kids come up and produce immediately, but this a very talented group of pitching prospects and could see Shane Smith type production or better out of the gate 

[WestEddy]

42 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Isn't Kelenic only 2-3 years of control remaining?

Pretty much has to be a flip candidate, like Murakami.

Kelenic is 3 years, 3+ if he spends a month in the minors. 

[WestEddy]

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 What happened to that rant about none of us working in the front office to know what the team is thinking?

Rant? I figured my response triggered your strange reply, so I started over. I felt you were attributing our convo to the front office. 

[WestEddy]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m growing optimistic about this team’s chances of competing this year.  While the OF has uncertainty to it, I like the broader group of positional players Getz has put together and feel like potential reinforcements in Montgomery and Antonacci will help in fill in any gaps.  Murakami and Colson being middle of the lineup anchors is essential to that though, so any shortfalls there and my hope goes out the window.

The rotation is without question the big wild card.  This is a poor group on paper, perhaps the worst in baseball.  However, Smith is a legit SP and I truly believe in Burke’s talent and fully expect a rebound.  From there, you got to hope that one of Kay or Martin can surprise a bit and maintain a spot.  If so, I can see some combo of McDougal, Sandlin, Schultz, Smith, & Thorpe upgrading the last two spots by midseason.  As I just posted, I expect Tanner to come fairly quick and likely knock out Fedde.  The other kids could be ready by June or July.  No guarantees these kids come up and produce immediately, but this a very talented group of pitching prospects and could see Shane Smith type production or better out of the gate 

Baldwin and Hays will hit. Out of Acuña, Pereira and Kelenic, only one has to blossom, and they have a passable group of OFs. 

I feel the same about the rotation. The weak links will be replaced by better starters. The bullpen could be sneaky good. I've said a bunch of times I could see the Sox winning 75+ games, and 81+ wouldn't surprise me. Yeah, if Mune is real, and Colson continues to develop, it could be a fun summer.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Baldwin and Hays will hit. Out of Acuña, Pereira and Kelenic, only one has to blossom, and they have a passable group of OFs. 

I feel the same about the rotation. The weak links will be replaced by better starters. The bullpen could be sneaky good. I've said a bunch of times I could see the Sox winning 75+ games, and 81+ wouldn't surprise me. Yeah, if Mune is real, and Colson continues to develop, it could be a fun summer.

Baldwin doesn’t have enough of a track record to promise that.

[tray]

If Braden Montgomery rakes in ST, does he have a shot at making the opening day 26 man roster ? 

I was hoping so because he looks to have all the tools needed to be a  great defensive RFer - quickness, speed, and a strong throwing arm. Braden reminds me some of Jermaine Dye when he patrolled RF for our '05 WS champs.

IMHO.....Braden has more upside than some of the players that are currently competing for OF spots...like Kelenic, Acuna and Baldwin. 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by tray

[caulfield12]

41 minutes ago, tray said:

If Braden Montgomery rakes in ST, does he have a shot at making the opening day 26 man roster ? 

I was hoping so because he looks to have all the tools needed to be a  great defensive RFer - quickness, speed, and a strong throwing arm. Braden reminds me some of Jermaine Dye when he patrolled RF for our '05 WS champs.

IMHO.....Braden has more upside than some of the players that are currently competing for OF spots...like Kelenic, Acuna and Baldwin. 

 

Zero chance for Braden...he hasn't come close to mastering AA yet.

[Chicago White Sox]

57 minutes ago, tray said:

If Braden Montgomery rakes in ST, does he have a shot at making the opening day 26 man roster ? 

I was hoping so because he looks to have all the tools needed to be a  great defensive RFer - quickness, speed, and a strong throwing arm. Braden reminds me some of Jermaine Dye when he patrolled RF for our '05 WS champs.

IMHO.....Braden has more upside than some of the players that are currently competing for OF spots...like Kelenic, Acuna and Baldwin. 

 

Venable told the media Braden won’t be leaving camp with the team.  But if he performs in the minors, I think he could be up by mid season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Baldwin doesn’t have enough of a track record to promise that.

You could say that about most any young player with only one good half worth of hitting. No one is making any promises. 

People just like what they see. Venable picked him as someone to keep our eyes on at Soxfest. He's got a potential impactful bat. 

MLB Network said Colson Montgomery was the 88th best player in MLB . Bold call based on limited track record.

Edited 13 hours ago by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WestEddy]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Baldwin doesn’t have enough of a track record to promise that.

Baldwin's hit everywhere and just turned in a strong two months in the bigs after mashing at AAA. It's silly to play the "there are no givens" game. If we're speculating, we have to make some assumptions. 

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You could say that about most any young player with only one good half worth of hitting. No one is making any promises. 

People just like what they see. Venable picked him as someone to keep our eyes on at Soxfest. He's got a potential impactful bat. 

MLB Network said Colson Montgomery was the 88th best player in MLB . Bold call based on limited track record.

These 75-81 win total protection getting thrown around now are based on absolutely everything going right.

Beyond almost everything going the opposite direction in 2023-24, that just doesn't happen (on the positive side) more than once a decade or two, at least in Sox history.

Injury "luck" alone is something that everyone knows will take a massive toll on mlb and milb pitching staffs. 

The team currently has a ton of names/depth to throw at the rotation and a much better bullpen than recently, but let's at least finish ahead of the Twins before getting too crazy...

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

These 75-81 win total protection getting thrown around now are based on absolutely everything going right.

Beyond almost everything going the opposite direction in 2023-24, that just doesn't happen (on the positive side) more than once a decade or two, at least in Sox history.

Injury "luck" alone is something that everyone knows will take a massive toll on mlb and milb pitching staffs. 

The team currently has a ton of names/depth to throw at the rotation and a much better bullpen than recently, but let's at least finish ahead of the Twins before getting too crazy...

The "depth" has bigger names than in the past, but I am not sure it is any better.  It's a lot of guys who have experienced major league failure, and we are apparently hoping that our dev team is better than places like NYM, Tampa, NYY, ATL, etc and can somehow save these guys from their current  history.  I want to see it actually happen before I start penciling in these guys.  Competing with the Twins to not finish last feels about right so far.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Baldwin's hit everywhere and just turned in a strong two months in the bigs after mashing at AAA. It's silly to play the "there are no givens" game. If we're speculating, we have to make some assumptions. 

If he was a Cardinal prospect that came out of virtually nowhere...wasn't highly touted or drafted highly and had that utility label ceiling placed upon him from the very beginning, sure.

They had that track record of production for decades.

Or the Rays, for example.  Masters of squeezing surplus value out of the Baldwin profile.

 

With the White Sox, he's going to have to prove it.

He's also going to have to beat out Kelenic/Pereira and also demonstrate at least IMPROVING defense in RF.

 

 

 

[WestEddy]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

These 75-81 win total protection getting thrown around now are based on absolutely everything going right.

Beyond almost everything going the opposite direction in 2023-24, that just doesn't happen (on the positive side) more than once a decade or two, at least in Sox history.

Injury "luck" alone is something that everyone knows will take a massive toll on mlb and milb pitching staffs. 

The team currently has a ton of names/depth to throw at the rotation and a much better bullpen than recently, but let's at least finish ahead of the Twins before getting too crazy...

"Let's have an entire season play out before we even begin to speculate on it" is odd. Nobody really gets on the people predicting a 4th 100-loss season or resetting the loss record to hold their horses until things play out. Why is that?

Guessing that a bat-first utility guy will hit isn't really "getting crazy". This same team just played at a 70-win clip from the ASB on, last year. That was a team with injuries, slumps and losing streaks. I'd expect some development, and some regression. 75 wins is based more on a stronger bullpen and development out-pacing regression by a bit.