OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[chitownsportsfan]

31 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

All fair . Will that be a literal parade or a parade in your head  ? 

I think Venable and his staff would deserve a lot of credit too . 

 

I like Will, but managers don't usually make or break baseball teams, talent does. I def agree he's the right man for the job right now and he is a good motivator and leader.

[ptatc]

20 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I like Will, but managers don't usually make or break baseball teams, talent does. I def agree he's the right man for the job right now and he is a good motivator and leader.

Always the debate like when LaRussa or Venture were the managers. How much does a manager matter?

Ive always said not much. Especially now with the analytics department having a big influence on lineups.

[caulfield12]

40 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Always the debate like when LaRussa or Venture were the managers. How much does a manager matter?

Ive always said not much. Especially now with the analytics department having a big influence on lineups.

2012 Ventura made value huge difference until crunch time with the more talented Tigers.

Sox also had improved "morale/fighting spirit" under Sizemore.

 

Not exactly Indiana football under Cignetti, but they can make a difference on the margins...

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

2) Murakami should be better than Vaughn. C. Monty for a full year. Less Sosa/Benintendi. Pereira/Acuña are good defensive OFs. Growth from Meidroth, Vargas, Teel, Quero. 

brotherhood

So teams that finish under .500 never become close or learn how to play together? I'm not sure who you're responding to, here, but predicting 75-78 wins isn't "competitive". 

So the 2013 Royals and 2019 White Sox are fair comparisons of where they SHOULD be after 3 1/3rd years of rebuilding?

[WestEddy]

33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So the 2013 Royals and 2019 White Sox are fair comparisons of where they SHOULD be after 3 1/3rd years of rebuilding?

What are you even responding to? Do you plan on even acknowledging anything I've responded to in good faith, or will you keep ignoring and flitting off to another leading question with no context?

[caulfield12]

36 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

What are you even responding to? Do you plan on even acknowledging anything I've responded to in good faith, or will you keep ignoring and flitting off to another leading question with no context?

The context is those teams were deemed to be successful ramp up seasons to playoff/World Series runs for two rebuilding organizations.

Is it fair to compare this year’s White Sox team to them?

KC won 86.

Sox went 72-89.

79 is the midpoint and pretty much the midpoint of 75-81 win projections flying around recently for this year’s team.

So 78, basically.  Fegan was at 79, right?

You’re willing to set that as your definition of success for the rebuild at this point?

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I assumed you were aware that actually calling a certain group of people crazy or cult like for optimistic viewpoints is generally frowned upon .But since your head seems to be planted firmly in the sand your ignorance  is understandable.

It had calmed down lately but apparently you dont have a filter and cant read the room. 

Tell me what your prediction is then.Let other have a crack at you . I noticed last year in the predicted wins thread when most people took the normal route of making a prediction before any games where played  you waited until the season was half over before you could commit to being on record. 

Apparently being optimistic lacks brainpower and everyone just buys into Sox propaganda and  you can separate the wheat from the chaffe. You have expressed this opinion before.

So please just give your opinion before the season starts this time. There's plenty of betting lines out there and WAR estimates of wins that range from 64.5 to 74.

There's also Pythagorean models that had the Sox at 71 wins last year . So they underperformed last year by 11 games. That usually indicates regression to the mean which would be a much better record the following year .

Being optimistic and encouraging is a choice of how you treat people. There are times in life especially when raising children or coaching that it's your job to nurture , encourage and teach that confidence and belief in yourself and your team mates means something. Winning means something. A lot of these players were a part of the Birmingham Barons 2 consecutive Championships. Winning breeds winning.

That optimists are sheep talk would be dangerous if you were in political office. Are you part of an elite ruling class that knows better than most ? Your baseball acumen and people skills aren't that impressive . 

 

 

 

 

There's no regression occurring YoY with a differnet collection of people. That's not how statistics work.

The Pythagorean model in baseball also isnt some advanced model. It's a basic model that calculates expected wins based on run differential. It's not meant to be a true barometer of performance.

Being optimistic in sports has absolutely nothing to do with how you treat people and others. Youre not a good person just because youre optimistically delusional. The fact that you think your positivity om soxtalk is nurturing these players is bordering on crazy talk.

67 wins feels about right.

Edited Thursday at 11:44 AM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There's no regression occurring YoY with a differnet collection of people. That's not how statistics work.

The Pythagorean model in baseball also isnt some advanced model. It's a basic model that calculates expected wins based on run differential. It's not meant to be a true barometer of performance.

Being optimistic in sports has absolutely nothing to do with how you treat people and others. Youre not a good person just because youre optimistically delusional. The fact that you think your positivity om soxtalk is nurturing these players is bordering on crazy talk.

67 wins feels about right.

You mean if more people pray for Notre Dame than their opponents...they still might not win every game?

You'd think that owners would prioritize filling stadiums for increased home field advantage (rather than dynamic pricing) if it would lead to let's say an extra 3-5 wins per season and fans would resultingly feel like they're actually receiving a value-added experience of a sold out rather than 40-60% capacity attended game...?

Edited Thursday at 11:52 AM by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There's no regression occurring YoY with a differnet collection of people. That's not how statistics work.

The Pythagorean model in baseball also isnt some advanced model. It's a basic model that calculates expected wins based on run differential. It's not meant to be a true barometer of performance.

Being optimistic in sports has absolutely nothing to do with how you treat people and others. Youre not a good person just because youre optimistically delusional. The fact that you think your positivity om soxtalk is nurturing these players is bordering on crazy talk.

67 wins feels about right.

So you think this team is going to put up about 15 fWAR next year?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you think this team is going to put up about 15 fWAR next year?

67 wins would be around 21 fWAR, but the range would really be between about 19 fWAR and 23 fWAR is reasonable for 67 wins. I have this pitching staff around 8 fWAR and the offense around 13 fWAR.

Edited Thursday at 01:45 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Now you've done it.

Well, this should be an interesting response.  If you in fact receive one.

Kudos for the extra feelings/emotions thrown in at the end.

Something between defenestration and evisceration is coming.

 

If you want to go back to your political analogy, selling hope/change/optimism tends to be better received.  It's basic human nature.

Even liberals can read Atlas Shrugged and be halfway convinced.

Unfortunately there's no John Galt fighting on behalf of the White Sox.

I didnt do anything. I merely explained that posting about people being crazy is one person telling a group of people how to act .

In the past he's also told us what should embarass us and called people sheep. It's him that did something. 

If we don't fall in line with his thinking, he feels a need to insult us. That is a dangerous way to act . God forbid that a little bit of winning in ST makes people happy after a few bad seasons and not having seen 3 games over .500 in a while. 

Edited Thursday at 10:17 PM by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WestEddy]

MLBTR focuses on out-of-option players on the bubble this spring

Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring - MLB Trade Rumors

Quote

Lee has been a more straightforward roster bubble type for a while. That’s the way it goes for an out-of-options third catcher. Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero have significantly higher ceilings. The Sox might carry three catchers, especially if they want Teel and Quero sharing at-bats at designated hitter on days when the other is behind the plate. Most teams prefer to have more versatility off the bench, though, so it seems only a matter of time before Lee ends up traded or on waivers. Lee isn’t going to provide anything offensively, but he’s a former first-round pick with a plus arm who could stick as a backup somewhere else.

 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I didnt do anything. I merely explained that posting about people being crazy is one person telling a group of people how to act .

In the past he's also told us what should embarass us and called people sheep. It's him that did something. 

If we don't fall in line with his thinking, he feels a need to insult us. That is a dangerous way to act . God forbid that a little bit of winning in ST makes people happy after a few bad seasons and not having seen 3 games over .500 in a while. 

That was directed at WestEddy...

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

MLBTR focuses on out-of-option players on the bubble this spring

Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring - MLB Trade Rumors

 

An ironically annoying situation, considering they basically have two starting catchers and a quality backup catcher.  I’d prefer to keep all three, but I’m not sure how they would juggle three catchers and the playing time/at bats for all of them.

This could be the strongest stable of catchers the Sox have had in ages (including Drew Romo in the minors) and I would have to lose even Korey Lee.

Edited yesterday at 04:00 AM by WhiteSox2023

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

An ironically annoying situation, considering they basically have two starting catchers and a quality backup catcher.  I’d prefer to keep all three, but I’m not sure how they would juggle three catchers and the playing time/at bats for all of them.

This could be the strongest stable of catchers the Sox have had in ages (including Drew Romo in the minors) and I would have to lose even Korey Lee.

It's the closest they have to a roster crunch.

That, and what to do with Sosa/Mead.

Just don't see getting much of anything back in return for any of them, unfortunately.

[WhiteSox2023]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It's the closest they have to a roster crunch.

That, and what to do with Sosa/Mead.

Just don't see getting much of anything back in return for any of them, unfortunately.

No, I agree.  Lee won’t return much.  It’s just a shame to have to DFA a competent backup catcher.  Will be interesting to see what happens with these guys — Lee, Kelenic, and Mead.  I can’t imagine Sosa loses his spot unless he is traded.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No, I agree.  Lee won’t return much.  It’s just a shame to have to DFA a competent backup catcher.  Will be interesting to see what happens with these guys — Lee, Kelenic, and Mead.  I can’t imagine Sosa loses his spot unless he is traded.

https://dodgerblue.com/ben-rortvedt-signed-new-contract-arbitration-before-dodgers-dfa/2025/11/20/

Just the fate of backup catchers with offensive flaws.

This guy won a WS with the Dodgers and was trusted over rookie Dalton Rushing, but they still couldn't protect him from the same fate.

 

Getz keeping repeating two young stud catchers provides an advantage over the league, but not how they are being utilized for the Sox...unless Quero was good enough to DH.

Edited yesterday at 04:17 AM by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

That was directed at WestEddy...

Then direct it at me by responding to something I wrote with a response that acknowledges it. You're so passive-aggressive, it's exhausting to even try to be civil to you.  

 

Edited yesterday at 06:00 AM by WestEddy

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No, I agree.  Lee won’t return much.  It’s just a shame to have to DFA a competent backup catcher.  Will be interesting to see what happens with these guys — Lee, Kelenic, and Mead.  I can’t imagine Sosa loses his spot unless he is traded.

I think all of spring training is a place where the whole league watches the other 29 teams and participates in a market. 

It's fun to guess on the OD roster, but injuries and other attrition makes everything fluid. Something could open up where we get back a Dru Baker for Korey Lee. And nothing could open up where we get cash considerations or even lose him on waivers. 

[WhiteSox2023]

16 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I think all of spring training is a place where the whole league watches the other 29 teams and participates in a market. 

It's fun to guess on the OD roster, but injuries and other attrition makes everything fluid. Something could open up where we get back a Dru Baker for Korey Lee. And nothing could open up where we get cash considerations or even lose him on waivers. 

Agreed, and I love that Getz claimed Romo and that he passed through waivers.  He could cushion the loss of Korey Lee.

Never stop claiming/dealing.  There’s always someone better than the last player on your 40-man.

Edited yesterday at 06:27 AM by WhiteSox2023

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I didnt do anything. I merely explained that posting about people being crazy is one person telling a group of people how to act .

In the past he's also told us what should embarass us and called people sheep. It's him that did something. 

If we don't fall in line with his thinking, he feels a need to insult us. That is a dangerous way to act . God forbid that a little bit of winning in ST makes people happy after a few bad seasons and not having seen 3 games over .500 in a while. 

Insult? I made a one line post directed at nobody.

Get a grip, pal.

[Chicago White Sox]

23 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

67 wins would be around 21 fWAR, but the range would really be between about 19 fWAR and 23 fWAR is reasonable for 67 wins. I have this pitching staff around 8 fWAR and the offense around 13 fWAR.

If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me.

The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year.  You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively.  I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins.  The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed.  The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins.  I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor.  My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8.

Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you.  Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase.  I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light.  As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me.

The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year.  You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively.  I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins.  The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed.  The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins.  I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor.  My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8.

Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you.  Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase.  I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light.  As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.

How are Antonacci and Meidroth both going to get 400+ at-bats?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me.

The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year.  You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively.  I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins.  The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed.  The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins.  I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor.  My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8.

Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you.  Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase.  I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light.  As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.

I have Grant Taylor leading the White Sox in pitching WAR, for whatever that is worth. I have the bullpen basically out valuing the rotation in total WAR.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox come in under my 8 projection. I think they have the worst staff in baseball, and the worst staff usually comes in around the 5-7 range in total WAR. 

On the positional side, I have Colson at 3.1 projected WAR, which is definitely on the high side compared to other public-facing valuations but I diminished the weights placed on his performance during his back injury which, I also think, slightly inflated his expected games played but I don't think that production was an indicator of his skill set. Coming in second was Teel at 2.6 and third was actually Acuna at 2.1 (but all of this is tied to his defense and base running as I have him with an 82 wRC+). Murakami has a wide range, but his 50th percentile outcome came in at 1.5 with an above average bat but below average defense and base running. 

My numbers are pretty low on Meidroth (.8) and Vargas (1.1).

[GreenSox]

The Sox  knew this was coming with Lee.  Best hope is that there are multiple teams in need of a backup catcher, with no others available,  at the end of March.  Getz just needs to be patient and not give him away too soon. 

Mead shouldn't push out anyone.