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Starting Pitcher Wins Predictions


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I think Mark can finally relax now that he knows he's a Whitesox for alittle while longer... I think this is the year he hits 20 wins.

 

Mark - 20

 

Esty.... I have my doubts about... I mean I think he could implode this year.. anything over 14 wins I'll be happy with

 

ELo - 14

 

Jon Garland will hopefully put an entire season together... I think this is a year he could break that 12/13 win barrier and maybe win a cool 16 or 17

 

Jon - 17

 

 

Everything else is a crap shoot.

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Hey, s*** for brains, have you been watching this guy for the past few years?

Hey..... there isnt a rule against expressing someones opinions. THis is part of why this country is awesome..... we can express opinions... even if they go against the majority.

 

Lay off ok ;)

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Teams are starting to see him better and are hitting him harder.  There was a reason he started out 2-10 last year.

There's also a reason that his teammates cost him games by a ton or errors, and bad defensive plays on the field. That 2-10 record Buerhle had was very deciving. He didn't pitch what his record showed eariler in that season. Yes, he did get hit hard, but that doesn't mean that's the reason he was 2-10. I remember alot of his teammates cost him games by errors or musjudged plays. (Jimenez n valentin are two of them) That's why he got back to a respectable record after the all-star break. If he was being "figured out," then teams would have hit him harder continueously during that span. His teammates also backed him up as well. He was incredible during the playoff run. He has not been at a steady decline, especially considering he's a 25 year old now still learning how to pitch. He even said he tried to get hitters out last season trying to sink the ball, rather than change speeds often when he had success during the past couple seasons. I'd expect a rebound from Buerhle this season.

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There's also a reason that his teammates cost him games by a ton or errors, and bad defensive plays on the field. That 2-10 record Buerhle had was very deciving. He didn't pitch what his record showed eariler in that season. Yes, he did get hit hard, but that doesn't mean that's the reason he was 2-10. I remember alot of his teammates cost him games by errors or musjudged plays. (Jimenez n valentin are two of them) That's why he got back to a respectable record after the all-star break. If he was being "figured out," then teams would have hit him harder continueously during that span. His teammates also backed him up as well. He was incredible during the playoff run. He has not been at a steady decline, especially considering he's a 25 year old now still learning how to pitch. He even said he tried to get hitters out last season trying to sink the ball, rather than change speeds often when he had success during the past couple seasons. I'd expect a rebound from Buerhle this season.

ill never forget that freakin pop up jimenez dropped in the first inning with the bases loaded and two outs against oakland...the look on buehrle's face..it was like someone just shot his favorite hunting dog...what a nightmare jimenez was

 

as for garland .. i think he will take a step backwards this year but ultimately i think he will develop into a pretty decent pitcher..if im right , lets just hope we dont give up on him just yet..but i think he really needs to hit rock bottom before he will achieve any real success..its all come too easy for him

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Ya i think buehrle is going to do very well this year. Last year he didnt even do that bad and became the first white sox pitcher to pitch 200.0 IP in 3 straight seaons. Look at his second half numbers. He went 12-4 with a 3.47 ERA over his final 20 starts which is a big improvement over his first half. I wouldnt be surprised if buehrle wins 20 games this year if he pitched like he did during the second half of the season.

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C.Rector did bring up good points, but once he brought up moving Mark to the bullpen, he lost his case. We are short on starters as it is, so lets move are ace to the bullpen. Good call :fyou

I totally agree with that. Our bullpen will be fine as it is, so there is no need for our #1/#2 pitcher(I think he's #2, but people have different opinions), and there is no need to put a guy that will earn something like $4 mill a year(I can't recall the exact numbers but I believe it's $4 mill a year) in the pen to be a long reliever. Only the very best LH relievers in the game will ever make $4 mill(and even Marte will only make like $1 mill next year), and Buehrle would not be anywhere close to the best LH reliever in the game.

 

Plus the fact that it would be flat out stupid to take someone from where we are short-handed and put him somewhere where we have some depth, or to make it more clearly, why would take a starter, where we are weak, and put him in the pen, where we are deep? That would be an incredibly stupid move.

 

Though he does bring up good points about his stats getting worse.

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Just interested why you think Jonny G. will go backward this year Baggs?? Casue of the team in front of him??

thats part of it..plus there is so much negativity surrounding the team right now and so many people are saying garland is the key to the season...and he really is...we have no established 4 or 5 starter so the pressure will really be on the top 3 guys to perform...im confident buehrle and loiaza will step up..i think garland is still a few years away before he is ready to handle that kind of pressure

 

remember he went right to the minors (unlike buehrle) and was only 20 when he got the call...so he is still learning to pitch in the majors...look at what happened to kip wells after he got rushed and he came from a college background...i just think its unfair to make this garland's make or break year...even if he takes a step backwards and struggles this year i hope we dont give up on him

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I used to do these predictions every year with my heart, but I'm going to use my mind instead.  (Run for cover!!)

 

Buehrle  17-9

Loaiza 16-8

Garland  16-10

Schoenweiss  13-8

5th spot  9-8

Holy Crap!

 

If that's the rational predictions, and NONE of the starters will have a losing record, what kind of record would your HEART give these guys???

:D

 

Pastime's Heart's Predictions:

MB 34-2

EL 29-3

JG 24-6

SS 19-7

#5 18-11

 

That's 124 wins from our starters, and you just KNOW Billy Koch is good for 10 out of the pen!!!

;) :lol:

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There's also a reason that his teammates cost him games by a ton or errors, and bad defensive plays on the field. That 2-10 record Buerhle had was very deciving. He didn't pitch what his record showed eariler in that season. Yes, he did get hit hard, but that doesn't mean that's the reason he was 2-10. I remember alot of his teammates cost him games by errors or musjudged plays. (Jimenez n valentin are two of them) That's why he got back to a respectable record after the all-star break. If he was being "figured out," then teams would have hit him harder continueously during that span. His teammates also backed him up as well. He was incredible during the playoff run.

Which perfectly explains his month of May when he went 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA. :rolleyes:

 

You would not have a 7.16 ERA if your teammates were making all kinds of s***ty plays behind you. You can give up 937 runs and still have an ERA of 0.00, assuming that all 937 runs were due to errors or passed balls(or if an inning was extended longer then it should have been and a homer was allowed). Buehrle was at fault for quite a few of those runs if his ERA was 7.16.

 

He has not been at a steady decline, especially considering he's a 25 year old now still learning how to pitch. He even said he tried to get hitters out last season trying to sink the ball, rather than change speeds often when he had success during the past couple seasons.

 

Do these numbers mean NOTHING to you(courtesy C. Rector)?

ERA: 3.29, 3.58, 4.14

WHIP: 1.07, 1.24, 1.35

K/BB: 2.63, 2.20, 1.95

K/9IP: 5.12, 5.05, 4.65

BAA: .230, .260, .278

Looks like they're getting worse to me. Also, where did I say Buehrle is in a steady decline? It looks to me like his numbers are getting worse, who says that trend won't continue and he goes 12-15 with a 4.50 ERA this year? Then again, who says that Garland won't bust out, win 19 games, including 12 in the second half, and leads us to a World Series win, much like Josh Beckett did the Marlins? Games aren't played on paper and strange s*** can happen, but usually future statistics can be figured out by trends players have early in their career. We'll see if Buehrle trend continues.

 

Also, where did he say he was trying to sink the ball more? I never read anything about that. What I remember being the story of turning him around was moving from the left side of the mound to the right side.

 

I'd expect a rebound from Buerhle this season.

 

I expect Buehrle to play with everything he has this year, and if everything he has is 12-14 with a 4.50 ERA, then I'd take it. If he is just f***ing around acting like a dips*** and he puts up a 18-9 record with a 3.30 ERA, I'm going to wonder why he didn't try harder and win 20.

 

Obviously, Buehrle's attitude would be the attitude in the first situation, and we all hope he has a record like the one I had in the latter situation.

 

 

BTW, incredible in the playoff run? I hope you're not talking about his 4.50 ERA in August.

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Looks like they're getting worse to me.

 

Buehrle even said himself that he tried a different approach last season as far as pitching. Obviously, it hasn't worked. That doesn't mean he is going to be s*** every year.

 

It looks to me like his numbers are getting worse

 

I don't give a s*** how numbers look to you. Remember this pal, Stats can be deceiving.

 

who says that trend won't continue and he goes 12-15 with a 4.50 ERA this year?

 

Obviously you did.. ;)

 

Then again, who says that Garland won't bust out, win 19 games, including 12 in the second half, and leads us to a World Series win, much like Josh Beckett did the Marlins?

 

Josh Beckett has more dominent stuff than Garland. Plus, Beckett was injured as well. Are you suggesting you want garland to get injured so his arm can be fresh if we even have a chance at a playoff run..?

 

Games aren't played on paper and strange s*** can happen, but usually future statistics can be figured out by trends players have early in their career. We'll see if Buehrle trend continues.

 

That's what I've been saying. The best team on paper doesnt mean nothing in baseball. I don't think Buehrle's trend will continue, but I don't know Buehrle eigher. I still believe he's going to bust out because he's going to pitch where h had success eariler in his career.

 

Also, where did he say he was trying to sink the ball more? I never read anything about that. What I remember being the story of turning him around was moving from the left side of the mound to the right side.

 

Buehrle said that twice. On a pregame show with hawk during the last game of the season, and on ESPN with one on one. One of the stories is what you just state it. Moving from the left side of the rubber to the right.

 

I expect Buehrle to play with everything he has this year, and if everything he has is 12-14 with a 4.50 ERA, then I'd take it.

 

I'm hoping for the same my fellow sox friend. That's why I believe he'll step up this year.

 

If he is just f***ing around acting like a dips*** and he puts up a 18-9 record with a 3.30 ERA, I'm going to wonder why he didn't try harder and win 20.

 

I'm not even going to respond to that ridiculous statement.. ;)

 

Obviously, Buehrle's attitude would be the attitude in the first situation, and we all hope he has a record like the one I had in the latter situation.

 

Who gives a f*** what you record. :D Buehrle's attitude is as smooth as duffman. He just let's his pitching do the talking. Also kinda quiet as maggs' material.

 

BTW, incredible in the playoff run? I hope you're not talking about his 4.50 ERA in August.

 

I said eariler stats can be deciving. And BTW, that's augest. See what he did the second half of the season, hell even in september, then you can say that.

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If you read the question I asked Mark at Soxfest about the difference between the first and second halves in last season (which 2k4, steff and others witnessed) you would know why he struggled in the first half and rebounded in the second half.

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I don't give a s*** how numbers look to you. Remember this pal, Stats can be deceiving.

In very few cases. In almost all things, especially baseball, statistics are a great indicator of success and failure or how something works. Then there's the saying from Hawk "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it"....as it has been said before, getting off to a hot start would be nice now and then(see 2000), and his May record of 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA is a good indicator of how he pitched. In August, he had an ERA of 4.50....far from the ace material we would really need in August, so he did struggle down the stretch. His ERA was below 4.00 in the other 4 months however.

 

Obviously you did

 

If I did, then WHERE? I don't recall saying the he would go 12-15 with a 4.50 ERA....I basically said I wouldn't rule it out. I believe in the actual predictions, I predicted Mark to win 15 games, so how is that 12-15 with a 4.50 ERA?

 

Josh Beckett has more dominent stuff than Garland. Plus, Beckett was injured as well. Are you suggesting you want garland to get injured so his arm can be fresh if we even have a chance at a playoff run..?

 

Would Garland win 19 games if he got injured? I think not. And who cares if Beckett has more dominant stuff? Esteban Loaiza doesn't exactly have dominant stuff either, and he was only the runner up in the Cy Young balloting last year, and he only made hitters look silly from April to August, when his arm really just fell off.

 

And who says Garland doesn't make one adjustment, sees his sinker sink more and sink faster, develops a little cutter, and is a top tier pitcher in the league? Probably won't happen, but you never know.

 

I don't think Buehrle's trend will continue...I still believe he's going to bust out because he's going to pitch where h had success eariler in his career. 

 

If he goes back to something he did earlier in his career, he may be successful for a little bit, and then will be hit hard because hitters will make adjustments, at which point Buehrle will have to make an adjustment, at which point the hitters will have to, etc, etc, etc....it is a never ending cycle. But my guess would be this year will be similar to years past where he got gradually worse....maybe 15-13 4.25 or something similar to that.

 

Buehrle said that twice. On a pregame show with hawk during the last game of the season, and on ESPN with one on one. One of the stories is what you just state it. Moving from the left side of the rubber to the right.

 

I'd never heard anything about the sinking. The only one I'd heard was left side of the rubber to right side.

 

I'm not even going to respond to that ridiculous statement

 

Why, because you'd do the same thing? If Jimenez was still with us, was acting like a s***face, giving a half-assed effort, and put up a .300 20 70 25 steals .900 OPS season, would you not wonder why he had better numbers? That would be what Buehrle was doing in that situation. Regardless, if Buehrle did that, he would be with another team faster then...hell, he'd be gone so fast, I can't compare it to anything. He'd be gone faster then fast. Buehrle has little talent as a baseball player, and has gotten where he has from locating his pitches and pitching like a pitcher. Buehrle gave a half-assed effort, his numbers would be worse then Koch's.

 

BTW, you technically did respond,

 

Buehrle's attitude is as smooth as duffman. He just let's his pitching do the talking. Also kinda quiet as maggs' material.

 

He obviously has a good work ethic and good attitude, otherwise he'd still be in AA or AAA. Different story for Maggs, though he has gotten where he has from the same thing as Mark, good work ethic and good attitude.

 

I said eariler stats can be deciving. And BTW, that's augest. See what he did the second half of the season, hell even in september, then you can say that.

 

So WHAT if it's August? You said he was incredible in the playoff run and I proved you wrong. A 4.50 ERA is not run, and that's what he had in August, and August is in the playoff run. Therefore, he was not incredible in the playoff run.

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So WHAT if it's August? You said he was incredible in the playoff run and I proved you wrong. A 4.50 ERA is not run, and that's what he had in August, and August is in the playoff run. Therefore, he was not incredible in the playoff run.

In very few cases. In almost all things, especially baseball, statistics are a great indicator of success and failure or how something works. Then there's the saying from Hawk "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it"....as it has been said before, getting off to a hot start would be nice

 

I agree.

 

Esteban Loaiza doesn't exactly have dominant stuff either, and he was only the runner up in the Cy Young balloting last year

 

Estaban was dominent. He was very hard to hit. That new cutter he developed was awesome. Even hitters he faced said he is so dominent and his command was beyond incredible.

 

If I did, then WHERE? I don't recall saying the he would go 12-15 with a 4.50 ERA....I basically said I wouldn't rule it out.

 

Rule it out eh.. Ok I'll remember that one.. :rolleyes:

 

Would Garland win 19 games if he got injured? I think not.

 

Why don't you think so? Prior still won 18 games and he missed a ton of games. I'm not saying that Garland is prior now, but if garland breaks through, he has the potential to do it even injured.

 

And who says Garland doesn't make one adjustment, sees his sinker sink more and sink faster, develops a little cutter, and is a top tier pitcher in the league? Probably won't happen, but you never know.

 

That's the thing we don't know. How many people thought Estaban would have the season that he did? Baseball is a mysterious sport IMO.

 

If he goes back to something he did earlier in his career, he may be successful for a little bit, and then will be hit hard because hitters will make adjustments, at which point Buehrle will have to make an adjustment

 

Whosays Buehrle will get hit hard? I can name a ton of pitchers in the league who throw the same pitches w/o changing anything and still be successful.

 

But my guess would be this year will be similar to years past where he got gradually worse....maybe 15-13 4.25 or something similar to that.

 

That's your guess. I don't care how many people doubt his abilities and statistics. I'll let him prove you wrong.

 

I'd never heard anything about the sinking. The only one I'd heard was left side of the rubber to right side.

 

Hopefully you'll hear it. I will try to find the link of when I read it for you.

 

Why, because you'd do the same thing? If Jimenez was still with us, was acting like a s***face, giving a half-assed effort, and put up a .300 20 70 25 steals .900 OPS season, would you not wonder why he had better numbers?

 

Jimenez wouldn't put up those numbers unless he was at Coors or something. His lazy ass would never put up ridiculous numbers like that. Even if he did, the errors he puts up hurts the pitchers and cost that team the victory too.

 

Buehrle has little talent as a baseball player

 

:o That's like saying no pitcher has talent just because they're pitchers.

 

and has gotten where he has from locating his pitches and pitching like a pitcher.

 

So...that's how he pitches. That doesn't mean he has "little" talent. Tell that to Greg Maddux. He has location, and knows his hitters. Yea that's "little" talent for you.

 

Buehrle gave a half-assed effort, his numbers would be worse then Koch's.

 

The point is he didn't. His numbers were good after the all-star break. That's what the whole point I've been trying to tell you.

 

He obviously has a good work ethic and good attitude, otherwise he'd still be in AA or AAA. Different story for Maggs, though he has gotten where he has from the same thing as Mark, good work ethic and good attitude.

 

In other words you agree with me. :lol:

 

So WHAT if it's August? You said he was incredible in the playoff run and I proved you wrong. A 4.50 ERA is not run, and that's what he had in August, and August is in the playoff run. Therefore, he was not incredible in the playoff run.

 

Not nessesary. I can be proven wrong easily, but in that case no. When your in a playoff run he pitched well after the all star break. Yes he was s*** before it, but he turned it around after. I don't like to break down statistics. He stepped up in Big games. That doesn't mean he stepped up every game. He ate up innings and gave us a chance to win regardless of how his record was at the time. Plus, that 4.50 era you keep stating isn't as bad as you think. Yes, from when you look at it is, but that doesn't reflect on how he pitched a certain game. You are a very smart baseball analist witesoxfan. I'm sure you'll be posting some detials to back up your statements. Of course, I'm ready for em.. :headbang

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