Gene Honda Civic Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(3E8 @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 03:49 PM) Where are your predictions cheat? p.s. hilarious avatar. He's gonna struggle .262/.343/.365 -- 11HR, 45 RBI, 31SB, countless balls not played because the backhanded scoop is shameful. Oh and the avatar has been in the works for a couple weeks now. I was just waiting for it to become official Edited January 24, 2005 by Gene Honda Civic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 Well, Captain Buzzkill, I'm going to say: .300/.370/26HR/82RBI/30SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotoh00 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 .280/20HR/70RBIs/30SB at best. The adjustment may take a while but Iguchi will be a star before long His old ball park had 50 feet high outfield walls and he still managed to hit a lot of dingers. Just hope he bats 6th or 7th rather than in the top two holes, just so he can use his power to drive in runs more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevHead0881 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 If he gets to .270, 15 hr, 45 rbi, 20 sb, I'll be pleased. Honestly though, all these predictions are a shot in the dark. I've liked what I've heard, but I have absolutely no clue what to expect from Iguchi. I basically love the move if only for the minimum risk involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(gotoh00 @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 04:25 PM) .280/20HR/70RBIs/30SB at best. The adjustment may take a while but Iguchi will be a star before long His old ball park had 50 feet high outfield walls and he still managed to hit a lot of dingers. Just hope he bats 6th or 7th rather than in the top two holes, just so he can use his power to drive in runs more. Do you know what the fence dimensions were to left, right, and center? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevHead0881 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 Oops. Sorry for the double post there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 OK, just to sqaush the Captain Buzzkill nickname -- Here's Iguchi's Major League Equivalents for the last 5 years (an approximation of what his production would have been in the major leagues) Credit: This site Tadahito Iguchi dob Dec 4, 1974 BR TR pos 2B 2003 salary: $2.24 million YEAR G AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OB PCT SLG 2000 65 194 45 11 4 5 14 .230 .284 .402 2001 162 639 155 29 2 21 57 .243 .305 .393 2002 132 495 120 16 2 13 25 .242 .278 .357 2003 156 596 189 42 2 19 75 .317 .393 .488 2004 151 621 193 41 4 18 40 .311 .358 .474 He's just turned 30 and has been released by his team so he can go to the majors. He's finally turned in two similar seasons. I'd say he's likely to play at least another year or two at about the 2004 level, then begin to decline with age. He won Gold Gloves in 2001 and 2003, but as we saw with Kazuo Matsui, that's no guarantee of a NPB middle infielder's prowess with the glove at the major league level. I'd scout that aspect of his game carefully, because if his defense is up to snuff, you've got to like a .300 hitting second baseman with some pop in his bat. Unless Jojima is posted, he's almost certain to be the best player to come over from Japan this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 http://home.n00.itscom.net/kbt-t/yakyujo_p...uokad04g_e.html Dimensions LF328, CF400, RF328 As someone pointed out the walls are much higher than the Cell. Likewise they won the league title in 00, & the Japan Series in 03. I think Iggy had the series clinching HR in that series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 and does that take into account he'll be playing in USCF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 04:53 PM) and does that take into account he'll be playing in USCF? No, but there is steroid testing now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 04:53 PM) No, but there is steroid testing now. you can't test for USCF dimensions last time I checked. I'm deeply vexed. So, your implying steroid use? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danman31 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 04:19 PM) He's gonna struggle .262/.343/.365 -- 11HR, 45 RBI, 31SB, countless balls not played because the backhanded scoop is shameful. Bastard! You stole my predicted average! .262/.325/.370 14 HR, 60 RBI, 21 SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSGuy406 Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(Jabroni @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 09:34 PM) .275 AVG .350 OBP 15 HR 50 RBI 30 SB I agree with this one, except a little lower AVG... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabroni Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 http://home.n00.itscom.net/kbt-t/yakyujo_p...uokad04g_e.html Dimensions LF328, CF400, RF328 As someone pointed out the walls are much higher than the Cell. Likewise they won the league title in 00, & the Japan Series in 03. I think Iggy had the series clinching HR in that series. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Wow, not bad... U.S. Cellular Field's dimensions: LF 330 CF 400 RF 335 Fukuoka Dome's dimensions (Iguchi's home stadium in Japan): LF 328 CF 400 RF 328 Iguchi's home stadium's dimensions in Japan and the Cell's dimensions could be near identical since the Fukuoka Dome has higher walls than the Cell. And remember, Iguchi hits most of his homers to LF. He could very well hit 20+ homers a year for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 In general, most parks are smaller in Japan. USCF is considered a small park in the states, and Tad's home park is a pitcher's park in Japan. So his numbers are still inflated based on the 50% of games that he plays in those small parks away from home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabroni Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 In general, most parks are smaller in Japan. USCF is considered a small park in the states, and Tad's home park is a pitcher's park in Japan. So his numbers are still inflated based on the 50% of games that he plays in those small parks away from home. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> True. I just think the Cell is definately going to help Iguchi's power just as it did for Uribe. Of course, I'd still rather see a high OBP and alot of SB from Iguchi instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 06:19 PM) He's gonna struggle .262/.343/.365 -- 11HR, 45 RBI, 31SB, countless balls not played because the backhanded scoop is shameful. I don't get the .103 ISOp, da Chort. Why would you think his ISOp would be even lower than Kaz Matsui's? Matsui went from hitter's park in Japan to pitcher's park in the US. Iguchi is doing the opposite. I see an ISOp in the .140-.170 range - short of his .220+ in Japan, but much better than Matsui's. You may be giving him too much credit in terms of walking. If he hits .262, his OBP will be .325-.330. My guess is .285/.350/.440, which is probably on the low end of what he is capable. I wouldn't be surprised with a .310/.390/.480 line, either, but that's probably in the 90th percentile of expectations for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLAK Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 03:16 PM) There seems to be an inordinate amount of people hear sipping the kool-aid and ready to place this guy in Cooperstown tomorrow. I was wondering what you thought his production would be next season... .avg/.obp/.slg HR RBI Translations go both ways. What do you think Willie would hit in Japan? Could he be as good as the great Greg LaRocca at .328? The immortal Alex Ramirez who hit .305? I was shocked by the thread that said the Sox didn't scout him with their own people, I'm sure the central bureau put a watch on him but most of us -except Shingo, will get our first look at him in Arizona. No predictions until I see him. I'm gonna skip the Kool-Aid and stick with the beer until at least mid-March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 I think the size of the wall might have escaped some of you. It's much higher than the Cell. You can't make a HR stealing catch there. I think you have to add at least 10ft to those dimensions in order to hit a HR there. That makes it easier for him to hit HR's in the Cell than that Dome. Assuming he can hit MLB pitching of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted January 25, 2005 Author Share Posted January 25, 2005 QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 05:52 PM) I don't get the .103 ISOp, da Chort. Why would you think his ISOp would be even lower than Kaz Matsui's? Matsui went from hitter's park in Japan to pitcher's park in the US. Iguchi is doing the opposite. I see an ISOp in the .140-.170 range - short of his .220+ in Japan, but much better than Matsui's. You may be giving him too much credit in terms of walking. If he hits .262, his OBP will be .325-.330. My guess is .285/.350/.440, which is probably on the low end of what he is capable. I wouldn't be surprised with a .310/.390/.480 line, either, but that's probably in the 90th percentile of expectations for him. Nothing truly scientific to back it up... The avg/obp, I just used Willie's numbers off the top of my head... I just don't think you can take two solid years in Japan, and ignore the 4 crappy years before it. We've seen the adjustment period in other japanese imports. The Matsui's (50hr's in 2002, 16 in 2003 for Godzilla), Ichiro(although he was asked to just get on base) ---The averages were down a little, but the power was down a lot. I don't think you can say just because his park is of similar size to USCF that there won't be a drop-off. The league that he plays in is full of tiny indoor boxes. The major league, while trending to smaller parks, is still much less hitter frindly than japan. The ISOp is probably low, but I didn't put a ton of thought into it. I would definitely be surprised by an OPS much higher than .700. The second year of the deal, I'd expect some big things from Iguchi(.290/.365/.435). I just feel there's some significant growing pains to be felt in the next 8 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonkeyKongerko Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 Bold Prediction: He will have more RBI, HR, SB than Willie last year. He will have the most productive year for a Sox two-bagger since Durham in 2000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 QUOTE(Jabroni @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 05:35 PM) True. I just think the Cell is definately going to help Iguchi's power just as it did for Uribe. Of course, I'd still rather see a high OBP and alot of SB from Iguchi instead. Huh? Uribe hit in Coors before he came...Me thinks Uribe just lived up to his potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabroni Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 Huh? Uribe hit in Coors before he came...Me thinks Uribe just lived up to his potential. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Agreed, but you can't just think that Uribe should have lit it up for the Rockies though. He only had one full season of at bats with them in 2002. Also, he is still only 25 years old so you couldn't have expected Uribe to put up stud numbers with or without the benefit of Coors when he was only in his early 20's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 My Prediction: .285-18HR-70RBI-22SB-.355OBP Reasoning: I put him up to Kaz Matsui and compared Iggy to him (.272-7HR-44RBI-14SB-.331OBP) 1. Iggy will have less pressure on him, and can "fly under the radar" somewhat. 2. Iggy will be hitting in a much better lineup. 3. Iggy will be hitting in a much much much more friendly hitters park than Shea. In Japan (last 2 years), Iguchi stole more bases, had more SBs, more BB's, more RBIs, much better average, much better OBP, and a lot less K's. Worst case scenario, I can't see Iggy doing any worse than Kaz and most likely a smidge better (.275-13HR-55RBI-17SB-.340OBP). Even if he puts up those numbers, I wouldn't be disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 QUOTE(Jabroni @ Jan 24, 2005 -> 07:04 PM) Agreed, but you can't just think that Uribe should have lit it up for the Rockies though. He only had one full season of at bats with them in 2002. Also, he is still only 25 years old so you couldn't have expected Uribe to put up stud numbers with or without the benefit of Coors when he was only in his early 20's. Oh yeah, I agree. I just don't think the Cell was to blame for his increase in HR. I just think he finally fulfilled his potential. Coors could have had a negative effect on him as well. He might have thought he could have hit anything out of the park. I know last year when he slumped Walker would always talk about him trying to pull everything. Maybe the simple fact of moving away from Coors helped Juan out. Whatever it was, thank you very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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