Lofty Expectations

[DBAHO]

From Ken Rosenthal's latest piece;

 

Talk about lofty (unrealistic?) expectations: White Sox G.M. Ken Williams says each of his team's five starting pitchers should win 15 games, with the potential to win 18 to 20. The only team since 1930 to have five 15-game winners in its rotation was the ‘98 Braves. The Cardinals had four last season; right-hander Woody Williams fell four wins short of making it five. ...

[EvilMonkey]

Why expect mediocrity. Hell, I can't even spell it!

[GoodAsGould]

i can see it happening to Buerhle, Garcia, and Garland(have a feeling this year), as far as contreras goes i dont think so he is 2 inconsistent and has given no reason to believe that will change. El Duque if he stays healthy has potential to win 15 games too but that would only give us 4 not 5 and thats being optimistic.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(SoxFan101 @ Mar 13, 2005 -> 08:05 PM)

i can see it happening to Buerhle, Garcia, and Garland(have a feeling this year), as far as contreras goes i dont think so he is 2 inconsistent and has given no reason to believe that will change.  El Duque if he stays healthy has potential to win 15 games too but that would only give us 4 not 5 and thats being optimistic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Contreras had more wins that Garland last season. He also had 5 in two months with the Sox (could've easily been 6 if not for Marte.) That's 15-18 wins over a 6 month season even with the inconsistency.

[DBAHO]

Contreras had more wins that Garland last season.  He also had 5 in two months with the Sox (could've easily been 6 if not for Marte.)  That's 15-18 wins over a 6 month season even with the inconsistency.

That's kind of misleading. In September he was 0-3, 9.21 ERA which were almost half his starts for the Sox.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Mar 13, 2005 -> 08:20 PM)

That's kind of misleading. In September he was 0-3, 9.21 ERA which were almost half his starts for the Sox.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

and he was 4-1 (could've been 5-1) in August. I don't understand your point.

[DBAHO]

  

 

and he was 4-1 (could've been 5-1) in August.  I don't understand your point.

All I'm saying that there's no middle ground with Contreras, he's either good or bad. To me, I think we'll probably see more of the bad, but that's just the pessimist in me I suppose. You would have rathered he put up those good numbers in Septemebr not August, so he'd have something to build on along with his last game shutout. Jose may be able to win those amount of games, but he'll have a greater chance at posting more in the L column as well.

[munchman33]

All I'm saying that there's no middle ground with Contreras, he's either good or bad. To me, I think we'll probably see more of the bad, but that's just the pessimist in me I suppose. You would have rathered he put up those good numbers in Septemebr not August, so he'd have something to build on along with his last game shutout. Jose may be able to win those amount of games, but he'll have a greater chance at posting more in the L column as well.

 

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

[jackie hayes]

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

 

Please, no lame ass "troll" comments for a reasonable, fair opinion. If you disagree, state your case and be out, don't descend into this garbage. Especially for a MOD!

 

Sorry, I just HATE "troll" accusations.

[DBAHO]

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

Could that just be because he's pitched for the Yankees for the past season and a half. Granted 2003 was a good season, even though he only won 7 games, but you don't expect to see a pitcher who puts up a 5.50 ERA to have many winning seasons.

 

Here's something else weird with Jose. 2003 he only gave up 4 HR's in 18 games (9GS), 2004, 31 HR's in 31 games.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(munchman33 @ Mar 13, 2005 -> 08:43 PM)

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I wouldn't say he's trolling consider he hasn't actually seen Contreras pitch in a Sox uni.

 

DBAH0, the Sox were out of contention in September, but we're still considered to be in it in August. If he'd pitched well in September, we'd hear about how well he pitches when there's no pressure. (Kip Wells, Jon Rauch, and other chumps people can't seem to let go of.)

He dominated the Indians, pitched well against the Royals, and defeated the Red Sox. I'm with Munchman on not knowing why you think it'll be *more* likely for him to have a losing season, despite the fact that he was 13-9 in a very inconsisent season.

Edited March 14, 2005 by santo=dorf

[CWSGuy406]

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

 

Or, maybe his career ERA+ of 95 says that he's a below average pitcher.

 

Geez -- a person states on opinion that is saying that a particular player might not do as well as some people hope, and certain people jump all over him for it (not talking about santo, either).

 

I wish there's a "You're a dumbass" sign, because that post deserves it.

[DBAHO]

I wouldn't say he's trolling consider he hasn't actually seen Contreras pitch in a Sox uni.

 

DBAH0, the Sox were out of contention in September, but we're still considered to be in it in August.  If he'd pitched well in September, we'd hear about how well he pitches when there's no pressure. (Kip Wells, Jon Rauch, and other chumps people can't seem to let go of.)

He dominated the Indians, pitched well against the Royals, and defeated the Red Sox.  I'm with Munchman on not knowing why you think it'll be *more* likely for him to have a winning season, despite the fact that he was 13-9 in a very inconsisent season. 

I know you're a Jose backer santo and I respect that, but I just think there's a couple more reasons for the case of him struggling this season. He'll have to cut down on the HR's for sure, no way can he give up 1 HR a game like he did last season (easier said than done at the Cell). At least when he moved to Chicago, his G/F ratio increased significantly, that'll have to continue, and he'll want to decrease opposing hitters .353 OBP against him. Improving the 5.1 BB/9 should be another goal (next worst out of the starters was Garland with 3.2). Also had a RAA of -6 (Runs Saved Above Average).

 

He's got to not let things go to his head when opposing runners get on base, and cut down on the wild pitches. He's got the stuff to dominate opposing hitters, whether or not he can put it all together and be the dominating pitcher, I don't know.

[munchman33]

Jose is a guy that stats truly don't tell the whole story. He's wildly inconsistent. He's either exceptional or terrible, and in stretches. But he's never had a season where the bad overwhelmed the good. In fact, he's never had a season where the bad was as often as the good. To state that it is more likely is completely baseless. There is absolutely no evidence to expect that.

 

But I guess I'm the one who deserves an "I'm a dumbass" sign.... :finger

Edited March 14, 2005 by munchman33

[DBAHO]

Jose is a guy that stats truly don't tell the whole story.  He's wildly inconsistent.  He's either exceptional or terrible, and in stretches.  But he's never had a season where the bad overwhelmed the good.  In fact, he's never had a season where the bad was as often as the good.  To state that it is more likely is completely baseless.  There is absolutely no evidence to expect that.

I disagree with that. We're paying him something like 12-14 million over the next 2 seasons, and in order to stay on this team, he cannot have another season where he puts up a 5.50 ERA. In April, May, July and September, he had 4 months where he put up an ERA over his season average (albeit 3 of those were with the Yankees).

[GoodAsGould]

the only reason Contreras has put up more wins than losses is because he came from the yankees.... not because he was a good pitcher. Our offense this year isnt built to score 10 runs in stretches like last year so it means we need consistency out of our SP's and Contreras is anything but that.

[CWSGuy406]

Jose is a guy that stats truly don't tell the whole story.  He's wildly inconsistent.  He's either exceptional or terrible, and in stretches.  But he's never had a season where the bad overwhelmed the good.  In fact, he's never had a season where the bad was as often as the good.  To state that it is more likely is completely baseless.  There is absolutely no evidence to expect that.

 

But I guess I'm the one who deserves an "I'm a dumbass" sign.... :finger

 

So we're paying him six million to have half of his starts be dynomite, and half of his starts be s***?

 

If Jose is going to ever pitch well, this is the season to do it. No more excuses. His family is here. El Duque is here. He's finally "settled", in a place that is a lot less of a pressure cooker than New York is. He's our number four, so the expectations aren't very lofty. It's time to be consistent. No more bulls***.

 

He certainly has the stuff to be an awesome pitcher, I think everyone knows that. We all know it's between ears with him.

 

Now it's time for him to go out and do it.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Mar 13, 2005 -> 09:04 PM)

I know you're a Jose backer santo and I respect that, but I just think there's a couple more reasons for the case of him struggling this season. He'll have to cut down on the HR's for sure, no way can he give up 1 HR a game like he did last season (easier said than done at the Cell). At least when he moved to Chicago, his G/F ratio increased significantly, that'll have to continue, and he'll want to decrease opposing hitters .353 OBP against him. Improving the 5.1 BB/9 should be another goal (next worst out of the starters was Garland with 3.2). Also had a RAA of -6 (Runs Saved Above Average).

 

He's got to not let things go to his head when opposing runners get on base, and cut down on the wild pitches. He's got the stuff to dominate opposing hitters, whether or not he can put it all together and be the dominating pitcher, I don't know.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's true that Jose allows more guys on base than Garland, but he doesn't get hit as hard. His OPS against was less than Garland which means guys aren't hitting him, he's just making too many of his own messes and not getting out of them. Contreras G/F was 1.5 AND his K/9 with the Sox was 8.20 which helps him out even more pitching at USCF. Just look at the numbers:

With the Sox at home he had a 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.82 K/9.

[DBAHO]

It's true that Jose allows more guys on base than Garland, but he doesn't get hit as hard.  His OPS against was less than Garland which means guys aren't hitting him, he's just making too many of his own messes and not getting out of them.  Contreras G/F was 1.5 AND his K/9 with the Sox was 8.20 which helps him out even more pitching at USCF.  Just look at the numbers:

With the Sox at home he had a 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.82 K/9.

Have you seen his away splits though? .273 BAA, .358 OBP, .480 SLG, .838 OPS, with a 6.09 ERA, which is all the more weirder considering US Cell is the Coors Field of the AL.

[southsider2k5]

Well, based on the fact that Contreras has never had a losing season, I'd say your pessimism is more trolling than anything.

 

DBAH0 trolling? Now I have heard everything.

[AnthraxFan93]

So we're paying him six million to have half of his starts be dynomite, and half of his starts be s***?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

And people wonder Why I hate KW so much..

[YASNY]

And people wonder Why I hate KW so much..

 

 

No. We all know why you hate KW so much. You told us countless times. We just wonder why you have to keep telling about it.

[AnthraxFan93]

No.  We all know why you hate KW so much.  You told us countless times.  We just wonder why you have to keep telling about it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

To make you see the true evil that is KW..

[YASNY]

To make you see the true evil that is KW..

 

Don't bother. I can form my own opinions and don't need your input.

[JUGGERNAUT]

He mis-spoke. Badly. Whether a pitcher earns 15 wins or not is as much a factor of the team's ability to score runs early as it is the arm on the mound. It's even crazier when you consider how much of a change that is from 04.

 

What he should have said is that he feels his rotation is good enough to produce 100 winnable starts. That in itself is a stretch but it's more reasonable than assuming wins.

 

That's not as crazy as it sounds. Roids is not the only factor leading to this bash ball era. New park design is as well. Have you looked at SBC Park? Is there a park more tailor made towards one player (Bonds) in the league?

 

In this bash era of MLB a winnable start is basically any start in which a starter surrenders 3 less runs than ip: 4ip/1r, 5ip/2r, 6ip/3r, 7ip/4r, 8ip/5r

If you get them from a starter you are expected to win. Especially at the Cell. The only pitchers who have an advantage are the good GB pitchers.

The Sox should be scouring the majors to get these guys & sign them long term.