What is overpaying for .260 40 HR and 110 RBI in the post steroid era?

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I was against re-signing Kong to a 50/4 deal before this season. But he's really proven to be a solid defensive 1B. It's important to have a guy that scoops up good & has a good arm at 1B. Kong fits that bill. I don't think there's a better guy available to the Sox that offers that kind of power & defense. Likewise Kong has proven very durable so if you are going to overpay he's a safer bet than others.

 

His numbers are now 50/4 caliber. We can now consider Kong a near 900 OPS player.

 

Carr 200HR 669RBI .278A .347O .486S .833OPS

2005 030HR 077RBI .271A .368O .529S .898OPS

2004 041HR 117RBI .277A .359O .535S .894OPS

 

The knock against Kong has always been he's a 2 month all-star, 2 month fair player, & 2 month poor player. But the last 2 yrs he's risen above that.

 

Apr 05 .218A/.814OPS (fair)

May 05 .227A/.783OPS (fair)

Jun 05 .293A/.930OPS (all-star)

Jul 05 .315A/.888OPS (all-star)

Aug 05 .333A/1.286OPS (all-star)

 

Apr 04 .299A/.918OPS (all-star)

May 04 .256A/.846OPS (good)

Jun 04 .287A/1.010OPS (all-star)

Jul 04 .296A/.883OPS (all-star)

Aug 04 .232A/.778OPS (fair)

Sep 04 .309A/.974OPS (all-star)

 

Kong still has cold streaks but he draws more walks now to avoid poor months.

Another big, likely more important point is how much salary flexibility KW Will have from Reinsdorf after this season. Given even a couple of playoff games, plus the attendance numbers we've had all year, it seems clear to me that KW has to have some decent flexibility.

 

In his chair, my #1 and #2 goals are to keep Buehrle and Garland around for at least the next 5 years. Beyond that, I'd consider keeping Konerko if the price was right, but I wouldn't let his cost interfere with keeping that 1-2 combo.

I was using Ramirez as the ideal.  If you'd like I can go back to Carlos Lee.  Or I can even compare this year's Konerko to previous years' Konerko...his hitting with RISP is down even for him, by quite a bit.

RISP Stats fluctuate wildly from year-to-year!!!

Juggs, when you call his numbers for May 05 "Fair", there's simply somehting wrong wiht your analysis. He was absolutely terrible that month.

August 04 was also terrible

You sound like one of those dumb Yankee fans who thinks that ARod's no good.

 

"but he doesn't hit with RISP"

By the way, RISP stats tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year. There simply isn't enough ABs to eliminate 'noise'. It doesn't really idicate a players true ability. -- Did Konerko suddenly lose his ability to be clutch? After all he hit .303 just last year w/ RISP.  NO. It's all just random chance.  -- The reality is, Konerko has a career average OPS of .833. His OPS w/ RISP this season is .864. -- But keep complaining. It looks good on you. :rolly

 

That is just part of my argument. My entire argument:

 

He's slow

his average is dipping from year to year to year and will eventually suck by his mid 30s

he's increasingly one-dimensional

any above average first basemen is gonna replace 75% of his power numbers for 50% of his future salary or less.

Batting average isn't everything. In those months Koney still posted a fair OBP & a mid 700 OPS is considered at least fair.

 

In the past when he would slump his OBP would slump as well as his OPS.

You were looking at 250ish OBP & a 650ish OPS. But he's changed. He doesn't let a slump affect his eye at the plate any more. Need more proof?

Look at his R's scored during those months:

 

Aug 04 .232A/.778OPS (fair) 16R, 21RBI

Apr 05 .218A/.814OPS (fair) 11R, 17RBI

May 05 .227A/.783OPS (fair) 16R, 20RBI

 

Jun 05 .293A/.930OPS (all-star) 19R, 16RBI

 

Think about those numbers. His worst 3 months in the past 2 seasons still produced 43R, 58RBI. Those are solid numbers.

 

 

QUOTE: Any above average first basemen is gonna replace 75% of his power numbers for 50% of his future salary or less.

 

Name me one that has averaged 500 AB's the past 3 seasons, is available to the White Sox, will be as strong defensively as Kong, can replace 75% of his R's+RBI's, & will cost no more than 25/4.

Edited August 15, 200520 yr by JUGGERNAUT

Name me one that has averaged 500 AB's the past 3 seasons, is available to the White Sox, will be as strong defensively as Kong, can replace 75% of his R's+RBI's, & will cost no more than 25/4.

 

Jermaine Dye, for one.

 

I'm only half-kidding.

Edited August 15, 200520 yr by Greg Hibbard

And yes, obviously he won't be as strong defensively.

 

When has defense at first base ever been a priority?

When has defense at first base ever been a priority?

Every time that the ball is hit on the ground to any infielder.

 

Seriously though...we've managed to deal with below average-average-good fielding first basemen for basically my whole lifetime...Thomas, Konerko, etc. Sometimes, just as a reminder, it's quite informative to flip over and watch the games of teams with truly great defensive 1b guys, like the Giants, Cubs, or Angels.

 

The amazing thing is how much better it makes everyone else on your defense, because they know that if they get the ball in the area of 1b, it'll be sucked up for an out. Suddenly guys make throws that they wouldn't make without that 1b, and they turn into outs/great plays. Throwing errors on routine plays disappear. It makes your whole infield defense better.

 

It's been so long since this team has had a great defensive 1b that I think some of us might not realize how big of an impact that kind of player can make.

I don't know what we should do about 1B/DH next year. All I can say is that with the exception of Konerko, the 1B/DH free agent market is not great this offseason:

 

Rafael Palmeiro

Jose Offerman

Wil Cordero

Frank Thomas (Player + Team option)

J.T. Snow

John Olerud

Dave Hansen

Brad Fullmer

Julio Franco

Tim Salmon

Doug Mientkiewicz (Vesting Option)

Kevin Millar

Paul Konerko

Dmitri Young (Team Option)

Scott Hatteberg (Team Option)

Eduardo Perez

Robert Fick

Greg Colbrunn

Mark Sweeney

Tino Martinez (Team Option)

Ruben Sierra

Daryle Ward

Travis Lee

Olmedo Saenz

Erubiel Durazo

Brian Buchanan

 

The year after, however, is better:

 

Sean Casey

Phil Nevin

Shea Hillenbrand

Derrek Lee

Jeff Bagwell (Team Option)

Darin Erstad

Dimitri Young (Team Option)

David Ortiz (Team Option)

Craig Wilson

Nick Johnson

Aubrey Huff

Edited August 15, 200520 yr by 3E8

I will throw this into the mix...one of the best things to happen to the Sox with regards to Konerko this year may very well be the recovery of Jason "the needle holes in my ass are from kinky foreplay" Giambi. Why? Because it may very well remove 1 important team from bidding on Konerko.

 

If Giambi was hitting .220 all year, do you think the Yankees would be in the market for a 1b man in the offseason? I'll guarantee you they would be.

 

Boston may very well be in the mix depending on what they do with Millar and that guy from Japan who homered off Garland (he could help us a lot too!). After that though...the big money teams at least seem set at 1b. Cardinals, Cubs, Angels all have good 1b guys. This means that if we're bidding, we're at least bidding against teams that are roughly on the same level as us...

 

Toronto may be looking to add a bat/add salary

San Fran may need someone

Who knows what the Dodgers will do

The Mets could try to make a run at him

 

The good news though is that I don't see a lot of rich teams that could be looking to add salary and a bat at 1b unless someone makes a trade.

Im just saying I wouldnt shed any tears if we lost Konerko and I dont think he is worth more than 8 million per year.

About Pauly not being clutch because he doesn't hit walkoff homeruns....

 

It may not be a walkoff but I seem to remember an ultra struggling Paul Konerko pinch hitting in the 10th inning of a game in July of '03 against the AL Central leading Twins and their stud closer Eddie Gaurdado. The Sox were down by one in this game and there was noone on, Konerko couldn't buy a f***ing hit the whole damn season yet he was pinch hitting in the 10th inning in a big game. He hit an absolute missle out over the fence in left center field tying the game and sending it to the 11th later followed by a big Frank walkoff. That was clutch.

 

I also seem to remember another game against the Cubs a few years back, the Sox were down 8-0 and the great Kerry Wood was shutting the Sox down. However Paul Konerko came up with a home run early in the game to cut the deficit and then was hit in the head in his next AB. But comming up against Kerry Wood with the Sox ralling and a couple guys on base Konerko launched one to left field giving the Sox the lead for good as they went on to win that game against the hated Cubbies. That in fact was also clutch.

 

They weren't walkoffs but they are two of my favorite moments in White Sox history. Oh Yeah and that Konerko bat flip leads you into Thunderstruck during the opening montage before games.

Im just saying I wouldnt shed any tears if we lost Konerko and I dont think he is worth more than 8 million per year.

 

I agree. If you can't trade for a 1B, sign him and trade him the following year and sign someone like a Nick Johnson or Hillenbrand.