The Angels may be the last postseason team we play until October, and Buehrle didn't start out any better against them tonight than he has recently against Boston or the Yankees. Plus, we know he has trouble with Oakland.

 

Should Ozzie use someone else to start the first game of the postseason?

 

And how will he know if Buehrle is up to it come October if he doesn't have a solid opponent to test him against between now and then?

 

I think the postseason rotation is going to pose a huge dilemma for Ozzie.

No. It's only two runs so far tonight. Also, Garland and Garcia haven't been otehrworldly lately. Also, I can't think of a worse thing for the lockerroom or for Buehrle's confidence than to start someone else.

Actually the postseason rotation will not be a dilemma for Ozzie at all. He'll pitch the hottest guys at the moment in the playoffs and in an order that will set them up for the best chance to win.

Edited September 10, 200520 yr by Kalapse

No. It's only two runs so far tonight. Also, Garland and Garcia haven't been otehrworldly lately. Also, I can't think of a worse thing for the lockerroom or for Buehrle's confidence than to start someone else.

 

Spoke too soon? Given a 4-2 lead, Buehrle can't even hold it for half an inning.

Actually the postseason rotation will not be a dilemma for Ozzie at all. He'll pitch the hottest guys at the moment, in the playoffs and in an order that will set them up for the best chance to win.

 

Sure, sounds easy, doesn't it? But to set up the rotation, Ozzie may have to make a move to line guys up in mid-September, before he even knows whether we'll be playing Oakland, LAA, or the Yanks.

 

Right now it is Buehrle, Garland, El Duque, Contreras, Garcia. With that order, it would be relatively easy, especially with McCarthy around, to lead with Contreras or Garcia. But if you want Garcia pitching on the road, yet still want Contreras to pitch one of the first couple of games, especially if we're playing the Yankees, it could become dicey.

I should have written it. Buehrle should have been hooked after Konerko gave him a 5-4 lead. He hasn't pitched even a half inning in this game with the lead, blowing leads each of the last two innings, as well as giving up runs in the top of the first.

 

If I were Ozzie, I would have sent him a message that this kind of pitching is not satisfactory right now. To me he seems to have lost a lot of the intensity he had early in the season.

Wow, Ozzie yanked him to start the 7th even though Buehrle can't get the win and had tossed only 84 pitches. It was an inning too late, but I'm impressed.

This was brought up in the game thread...

 

Hypothesis: Mark Buehrle beats up on the weak teams, but gets killed by good teams.

 

I plugged his splits into a simple spreadsheet, and ran some correlations.

 

ERA vs. Opponents wins = .297

WHIP vs. Opponents wins = .442

 

There is some correlation. In fact, he does allow quite a bit more baserunners to good teams.

This was brought up in the game thread...

 

Hypothesis: Mark Buehrle beats up on the weak teams, but gets killed by good teams.

 

I plugged his splits into a simple spreadsheet, and ran some correlations.

 

ERA vs. Opponents wins = .297

WHIP vs. Opponents wins = .442

 

There is some correlation. In fact, he does allow quite a bit more baserunners to good teams.

 

I've never fully understood these statistical correlation numbers. Any chance you could break them down in lay terms?

0 = no correlation

1 = direct correlation

Negative = negative correlation

buehrle's fine

Here are some "fun" stats about Buehrle's starts since the All Star Break.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...26entry861326

 

I posted that before tonight's outing.

His BIPA is damn near .300. He is the most hittable ace to toe the rubber.

Considering the shear amount of innings he has pitched, and our managers propensity to have them pitch deep into every game, no matter the score or meaning, we are hitting a bit of a wall. Now with the end of the season and the playoffs in sight does Ozzie.....

 

Use McCarthy to be our 6th starter, giving an extra day of rest to our starters.

Limit the pitch counts and use our underutilized bullpen more(Except Ozzie cant do his righty for a guy/lefty for two guys/righty for a guy matchups he loves for whatever f***ing reason.

 

f*** no. Let them toss their 120 pitches a game, they have to go at least 6 innings no matter what. Buerhle needs rest. If he limps into the playoffs like this he will be a f***ing pinata.

 

El Duque btw isnt getitng any younger and could use the rest. We are coming to the point that we have 2 times in the season where El Duque will need some quiet time for his shoulder.

Assuming we make the playoffs, no way in hell I start Buehrle in game one. He'll put us in a 1-0 hole quicker than you can say Steve Bartman. I'd go Garland, Buehrle, Garcia.

Guys take a step back from the ledge. Buehrle is still an ace and he is still one of the best in the game. He had a bad outing however he shut down a good tiger lineup on saturday. Also i think that balk call got to him. They weren't hitting him hard either.

Guys take a step back from the ledge.  Buehrle is still an ace and he is still one of the best in the game.  He had a bad outing however he shut down a good tiger lineup on saturday.  Also i think that balk call got to him.  They weren't hitting him hard either.

 

 

No, an ace doesn't get rocked everytime he's matched up with an elite team. Mark is an excellent pitcher. I love the guy. But there's no making light of his failed performances against the elite teams this season.

He's allowed 5 runs or more in 8 of his last thirteen starts.... Name me another ACE you can say that about.

 

/hat tip to knightni

He's allowed 5 runs or more in 8 of his last thirteen starts.... Name me another ACE you can say that about.

 

/hat tip to knightni

 

 

He's allowed 5 runs or more in 8 of his last thirteen starts.... Name me another ACE you can say that about.

 

/hat tip to knightni

That stat makes me ill

He's allowed 5 runs or more in 8 of his last thirteen starts.... Name me another ACE you can say that about.

 

/hat tip to knightni

 

Should Contreras continue to pitch his domination way until October, let's start him in game one in the playoff. I'm beginning to see the cracks in Buerhle, Garcia and Garland's pitching, while Contreras's pitching has become stronger and stronger as we come near to the end of the regular season.

buehrle's fine

 

How's that? Because you believe in him? That doesn't make him not suck against good teams. And I guarantee you that we don't face any bad teams in the playoffs.

This was brought up in the game thread...

 

Hypothesis: Mark Buehrle beats up on the weak teams, but gets killed by good teams.

 

I plugged his splits into a simple spreadsheet, and ran some correlations.

 

ERA vs. Opponents wins = .297

WHIP vs. Opponents wins = .442

 

There is some correlation. In fact, he does allow quite a bit more baserunners to good teams.

This underwhelms me. You'd expect a positive correlation -- better teams hit any pitcher better -- and I don't know why I should think .3 and .44 are unusually high.

 

It seems more important to ask how much one believes streakiness to be meaningful.

This underwhelms me.  You'd expect a positive correlation -- better teams hit any pitcher better -- and I don't know why I should think .3 and .44 are unusually high.

 

It seems more important to ask how much one believes streakiness to be meaningful.

I didn't save the spreadsheet, but Garcia was something like r=-.3 for ERA and r=-.65 for WHIP and r=-.7 for BAA ... He quite clearly picks up his performance against better teams.

Edited September 10, 200520 yr by Gene Honda Civic

I didn't save the spreadsheet, but Garcia was something like r=-.3 for ERA and r=-.65 for WHIP and r=-.7 for BAA ... He quite clearly picks up his performance against better teams.

Kind of like the 'clutch' debate -- does he pick up his game for good teams, or let it down for bad ones? I'd expect that, if a pitcher is trying hard every game, there would be a positive correlation between the quality of the opponent and era/whip (on average), based on the idea that better teams often have better hitters. Just b/c it's not true for one pitcher (FG) doesn't change that.

 

Actually, my suspicion is that, as FG's correlations are so large in absolute terms, this stat varies widely between pitchers, meaning MB's correlations are not very meaningful.