Going into last season, KW made the bullpen a point of emphasis. With an increased budget, he pretty much ignored it this offseason other than to sign a gazillion minor league free agents, who showed why they had that status in spring training. Its hard to draw any conclusions after 5 games, but it obviously has started out worse than even the most pessimistic would have imagined.

 

Who could we have signed?

I see no reason at all why Cotts and Garland cannot put up numbers equal to, or in JG's case, better, than what they did last season.  Especially Garland.

 

Garland definitely has the best chance. But 18 wins and a 3.50 ERA for a guy with a career ERA of, like, 4.30 isn't easy to duplicate. I think that 15 wins and a 3.90-4.10 ERA is more likely. Cotts, on the other hand, will have to pitch ~60 innings with an ERA under in the 1.9's to equal last year's output. That's a REALLY low ERA. I think he'll be closer to 2.50.

 

I guess what we have to hope for is more of today-like performances out of Javy, more of the same from B-Mac in long relief, more of the same from Jenks, and better offensive production (especially with RISP). We leaned WAY too heavily on our pitching last year and somehow got away with it.

Worry now?  Not a chance.  If we're struggling like this on Memorial Day then it's time to worry.

There's a difference between worrying and panicking. Now is an ok time to worry. Hell, I'm a White Sox fan...December's a good time to start worrying about the upcoming season.

 

But it is not time yet to panic, about any part of this team. They are just not clicking right now. They have no Marbles.

Garland definitely has the best chance.  But 18 wins and a 3.50 ERA for a guy with a career ERA of, like, 4.30 isn't easy to duplicate.  I think that 15 wins and a 3.90-4.10 ERA is more likely.  Cotts, on the other hand, will have to pitch ~60 innings with an ERA under in the 1.9's to equal last year's output.  That's a REALLY low ERA.  I think he'll be closer to 2.50.

I still say you just can't look at the career ERA of a pitcher who pitched his first 4 years before he was 26. Not to mention that he pitched those years with Jose Valentin @ SS while trying to be a sinkerballer.

 

Over a career, yes you regress to the mean. But when a pitcher is my age...you barely know what his mean is yet.

This is still a team that will win over 100 games this season. There is no need to start panicking after 4. Lets not get crazy!

Your predictions aren't looking too good, and my prediction that none of your predictions happens is looking pretty damn good.

Right now one thing really bothers me and it is just how bad 2 of our bullpen guys are...

 

KW should have done better research on Hermy to find out whether he was going to be ready for the season.

 

Now we are stuck with a suspect bullpen due to Logan and Thornton.

 

I don't think we're going to be able to count on those guys if we want to win the division again. 

 

The pen, quite frankly is just sad.  IMO neither Logan or Thornton should be on a MLB roster.

 

And using Logan against Hafner the other day was a joke.

 

Spending over $100 million on the team and to have these two guys out there in the pen to me is just bad management by KW.

 

I think we're going to be fine, but KW needs to look at the pen and think to himself, I f***ed this up and I need to make it right.  Neither Logan or Thornton are going to cut it.  We need help down there.

 

Why are you starting a new thread to whine about one loss? Oh wait, that is what I was told by someone a few days back.....

Your predictions aren't looking too good, and my prediction that none of your predictions happens is looking pretty damn good.

So, you're happy that they are losing and can already tell none of my predictions will come true after 4 games?

 

Yawn.

So, you're happy that they are losing and can already tell none of my predictions will come true after 4 games?

 

Yawn.

I'm not happy that they are losing, and I could tell before the season even started that your predictions would never happen.

 

Yawn.

I'm not happy that they are losing, and I could tell before the season even started that your predictions would never happen.

 

Yawn.

I admit some of them might be a bit much. I'm going to have to update them a bit.

 

I do enjoy all the bandwagon jumping. These fair weather fans should be shunned when they try jumping back on at playoff time.

Worry now?  Not a chance.  If we're struggling like this on Memorial Day then it's time to worry.

 

This is true in many cases but not all. Our 2001 was seemingly over before it started. I didn't need to wait until Memorial Day to make that determination.

 

On the flip side, I remember the Braves were being written off 2 years ago after still having a sub .500 record in mid-June.

 

I'm really not that concerned about the bullpen at this point. It could be better, sure. But our losses are more due to either unexpectedly poor starting pitching (Garland and Garcia) or lack of hitting w/RISP.

 

FWIW, the bottom of our lineup still looks really s***ty to me, especially now with Mackowiak playing and Pods struggling. I wouldn't be at all dissapointed if KW made improving the lineup a priority over the bullpen.

Kenny will be on this soon if they start losing, I'm sure you don't want to get too far behind. Especially behind the Indians, who I believe will be neck and neck with us this year.

so far this season feels TOO much like 2004 instead of 2005

I admit some of them might be a bit much. I'm going to have to update them a bit.

 

I do enjoy all the bandwagon jumping. These fair weather fans should be shunned when they try jumping back on at playoff time.

Since we all know that saying anything at all negative about the Sox is bandwagon jumping..

 

Also, whats the point of updating predictions throughout the season? Doesn't that sort of ruin the prediction part of them?

 

 

I really wish the search function was available for members that have joined in the past year.  None of you would believe the person I quoted is the real Poppy.

Like this?

Edited April 8, 200620 yr by Felix

 

No need for agruing. This is a great team we should all be glad we get to watch it.

I still say you just can't look at the career ERA of a pitcher who pitched his first 4 years before he was 26.  Not to mention that he pitched those years with Jose Valentin @ SS while trying to be a sinkerballer.

 

Over a career, yes you regress to the mean.  But when a pitcher is my age...you barely know what his mean is yet.

 

I see what you're saying. Garland is entering his prime and last year's numbers may be the culmination of those years of development. Still, his performance last year was so far below his career ERA that I can't see him repeating (or trumping) it. I hope that I'm wrong, but I think that his ERA will probably be closer to 4. JMO.

 

BTW, Jose wasn't THAT bad of a defensive player. Certainly far a great one, but not terrible either.

One thing that bothers me is that there seems to be no, what's the word, chemistry yet. Things just seemed to flow last year and so far thius year, everything is a struggle.

It is hard to put into words what I mean, so hope everyong gets my point.

 

That's what Carl Everett said could happen.

I hated Viz when we had him, but at least he was a veteran.

We need some veteran guy out there (who? dunno) to eat up a lot of innings

and get us through the seventh and eighth.

 

p.s. I don't like boone Logan's delivery.

The chemistry thing came to me too, as lame as it sounds. This team doesn't seem to be gelling together. As ridiculous as it sounds, maybe we did give up too many players in the offseason..

 

Garland didn't look good but defense wasn't exactly on his side last night either.

The chemistry thing came to me too, as lame as it sounds. This team doesn't seem to be gelling together. As ridiculous as it sounds, maybe we did give up too many players in the offseason..

 

Garland didn't look good but defense wasn't exactly on his side last night either.

Winning creates chemistry.

Worry now?  Not a chance.  If we're struggling like this on Memorial Day then it's time to worry.

 

Preach it Nuke. After what I went through last September, when it looked like we were gonna suffer the biggest collapse in MLB history -- a 1-4 start is absolutely nothing to me. This team will be fine.

I'm really not that concerned about the bullpen at this point. It could be better, sure. But our losses are more due to either unexpectedly poor starting pitching (Garland and Garcia) or lack of hitting w/RISP.

 

 

Exactly.

p.s. I don't like boone Logan's delivery.

He'd be down at Great Falls if it wasn't changed.

Exactly.

So far in 5 games we've given up just over on average 5 runs a game, while scoring just over 4.

 

Last season we only gave up on average 3.98 runs a game. It's amazing what giving up just over an extra run can make to a team.

So far in 5 games we've given up just over on average 5 runs a game, while scoring just over 4.

 

Last season we only gave up on average 3.98 runs a game. It's amazing what giving up just over an extra run can make to a team.

God I love small sample sizes. What would those #'s be if you excluded our first game and the Indians second game? Or if Ozuna caught those 2 fly balls? Or Pods had a few steals? Or Dye had played mor ethan 1/2 our games?

Edited April 9, 200620 yr by Balta1701

God I love small sample sizes.  What would those #'s be if you excluded our first game and the Indians second game?  Or if Ozuna caught those 2 fly balls?  Or Pods had a few steals?  Or Dye had played mor ethan 1/2 our games?

 

or if we still had Timo.

 

For whatever reason this team just seems a little flat. Maybe it was all the hoopla surrounding the start of the season, but either way they should turn it around.