Felix Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 18, 2006 -> 10:43 PM) In such a short blurb, why mention it at all? Raising an ERA by as little as .04 is certainly insignificant, yet Perry decided to point it out anyway, as if he wouldn't be as good as he is now if he did so. Why mention it? Because its regression, and thats what the article is about. He said that Count wouldn't be as good as he has been, and his ERA would be above 3. Then he went on to say that he'd still be productive and vital to the rotation. I really don't see how that is an insult, especially because he says that Count will still be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Contreras is an easy pick for regression from the outside looking in, if you only look at his numbers. This doesn't surprise me at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 This reminds me of when Dave at USSMariner pointed out that Contreras wasn't likely to maintain an ERA under 2.00 earlier this season. Thanks Mr. Obvious. I won't defend Perry as he's pompous and not half as smart as he thinks he is, but he really didn't say anything offensive or incorrect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SABR Sox Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 (edited) Lol, thats not such an asshole remark. Right now Jose's been getting it done, but he'll probably regress a bit. For those of you unfamilar with the stat BABIP, or Matting Average of Balls into Play, is the numbers of batted balls into the playing field that go for hits. Mainly a luck stat. Completley dependant on defense or whether a hitter gets lucky and finds "holes" when batting. The league average BABIP is about .290. BABIP's abnormally low will usually regress to the mean over a season, and a pitcher's H/9 will escalate, and consequently, usually a pitchers ERA. Vice Versa when it comes to abnormally high BABIP. Keep in mind this is a *luck* stat that fluctuates year after year. One season a pitcher could have the lowest BABIP in the league and the next year, he could have the highest. It happens quite often too. Jose's BABIP right now is 0.244. Very low, and too low to sustain over a season. That number is going to climb around the .290 mark soon, and we'll see an increase in H/9, and probably ERA becuase of it. Not trying to shoot down anyone's hopes, but Greg Maddux was in the same situation when he was 5-0. His BABIP was EXTREMELY Low, it rose and because of it, his numbers did too. He's nothing more than a #3 starter on most teams now. Not saying Jose is a #3 starter, but sustaining a sub-3 ERA when his BABIP is going to regress will be VERY TOUGH. Edited June 19, 2006 by SABR Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 My hope is that the rise in BABIB will be offset by more strikeouts. Pitcher BABIP is a pretty nuanced point if I remember correctly. A couple of Hard Ball Times articles dealt with the topic this summer, and I believe left the possibility open that there is more than just "luck" involved for certain pitchers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SABR Sox Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Jun 18, 2006 -> 10:38 PM) My hope is that the rise in BABIB will be offset by more strikeouts. Pitcher BABIP is a pretty nuanced point if I remember correctly. A couple of Hard Ball Times articles dealt with the topic this summer, and I believe left the possibility open that there is more than just "luck" involved for certain pitchers. Well thats my point. Even if he's really had high K rates the past few games, his overall K rate is still relatively low, and he's still pitching for contact. If your pitching for contact, the chances of your BABIP increasing are much better than a power pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 QUOTE(SABR Sox @ Jun 18, 2006 -> 11:26 PM) Jose's BABIP right now is 0.244. Very low, and too low to sustain over a season. That number is going to climb around the .290 mark soon, and we'll see an increase in H/9, and probably ERA becuase of it. Not trying to shoot down anyone's hopes, but Greg Maddux was in the same situation when he was 5-0. His BABIP was EXTREMELY Low, it rose and because of it, his numbers did too. He's nothing more than a #3 starter on most teams now. Not saying Jose is a #3 starter, but sustaining a sub-3 ERA when his BABIP is going to regress will be VERY TOUGH. Jose had a BAPIP of .263 for the whole season last year, and .265 for 2004 with the Yankees, so even though he won't keep it at .244, it is not going to climb to .290. Even if he had a BABIP of .290 for the rest of the season, that would still only equal about a .270. For him to have a .290 BAPIP at the end of the season, he would have to post a BAPIP of over .330 for the remainder of the season. That is not going to happen. Also, there is really no correlation from BABIP to ERA: B. Webb 2.37 ERA - .309 BABIP C. Carpenter 2.46 ERA - .291 BABIP R. Oswalt 3.21 ERA - .323 BABIP C. Young 3.38 ERA - .221 BABIP S. Kazmir 3.39 ERA - .336 BABIP A. Harang 3.92 ERA - .349 BABIP F. Nieve 4.71 ERA - .258 BABIP S. Elarton 5.09 ERA - .241 BABIP J. Beckett 5.09 ERA - .253 BABIP T. Buchholz 5.82 ERA - .269 BABIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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