Pretty cool little chart they have going on here, updated daily:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Has us at 12% to win the division, 45% for the Wild Card and 57% chance overall to get to the postseason.

if we keep winning i like our chances of the division more and more. im gonna forget about charts and sabermetrics... just win win win and when we play detriot WIN WIN WIN

 

then we'll be a-ok!

They had the Red Sox at .01% to win the World Series when they down 3-0 back in 2004.

 

After the Sox beat Detroit last year, the Sox only had a 96% of winning the divison before the 3 game series with Cleveland.

 

"cool" isn't the word I would use to describe it

I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense.

 

How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting.

I check that link regularly.

 

Also, they use PECOTA projections too:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense.

 

How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting.

 

 

I could be wrong but I'm guessing it's all done with formulas based off of historical data. So for example at this point in the season teams with so and so lead/record have historically made the playoffs x amount and won the division/wild card x amount.

I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense.

 

How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting.

 

The Yanks are in a slightly weaker division so they would be theoretically be able to win more games, I would think.

I will forever abhor Baseball Prospectus for writing that the 2005 Sox would finish in "the basement" of the division w/ KC.

I will forever abhor Baseball Prospectus for writing that the 2005 Sox would finish in "the basement" of the division w/ KC.

 

 

You are absolutely right.

 

the 2005 book wrote some of the meanest, dismissive predictions I've ever read about the Sox.

 

And read the 2006 book. They didn't admit they were wrong. They suggested the Sox were lucky and statistical freaks for winning all those one-run games.

 

I read Baseball Prospectus. But they have folks there who enjoy bashing the crap out of the White Sox, especially Kenny Williams.

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte

Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times.

 

i didn't see anything with details of the simulation, like if it includes possible injuries and how often subs play. there a lot of questions you could ask about the simulation. i check it on a regular basis and think it is pretty interesting.

dude, the white sox f***ing suck. I have been pretending to like them for the past year just out of spite. I'm a yankees fan, and we at least will make the postseason b****es.

I think we still have only a 19% chance of making last year's playoffs.

 

dude, the white sox f***ing suck. I have been pretending to like them for the past year just out of spite. I'm a yankees fan, and we at least will make the postseason b****es.

um...

 

i didnt type that....

I think we still have only a 19% chance of making last year's playoffs.

 

 

That Chucky Carr thing is f***ing hilarious.

"George is getting angry!"

You are absolutely right.

 

the 2005 book wrote some of the meanest, dismissive predictions I've ever read about the Sox.

 

And read the 2006 book. They didn't admit they were wrong. They suggested the Sox were lucky and statistical freaks for winning all those one-run games.

 

I read Baseball Prospectus. But they have folks there who enjoy bashing the crap out of the White Sox, especially Kenny Williams.

 

duh, bill james is connected with BP and he's considered a god by good ole billy bean

duh, bill james is connected with BP and he's considered a god by good ole billy bean

Billy Beane. Billy Bean is a different player.

Its amazing to me how many people are still stupid and/or bitter enough to think a team that was in first place for all 162 games and went 11-1 in the playoffs won the championship because they were "lucky".

 

These BP guys, who are all about stats, choose to ignore that overwhelming statistical fact.

We lost to the Royals and our chances of winning the Wild Card improved 20% last night.

 

Edited August 18, 200619 yr by WHarris1

We lost to the Royals and our chances of winning the Wild Card improved 20% last night.

 

I agree

Updated:

 

American League

New York Yankees: 97.84 percent

Detroit Tigers: 97.57 percent

Oakland A's: 80.00 percent

Minnesota Twins*: 58.51 percent

Chicago White Sox: 41.00 percent

Los Angeles Angels: 16.68 percent

Boston Red Sox: 4.23 percent

 

National League

New York Mets: 100 percent

St. Louis Cardinals: 83.64 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers: 74.10 percent

San Diego Padres: 40.09 percent

Cincinnati Reds: 37.98 percent

Philadelphia Phillies*: 20.43 percent

San Francisco Giants: 16.58 percent

Florida Marlins: 6.45 percent

Houston Astros: 6.10 percent

 

* – Wild card leader: The Twins are at 49.35 percent, ahead of the White Sox at 35.94 percent, and the Phillies at 20.42 percent are ahead of a gaggle of teams, including the current leaders, the Reds (18.79 percent), and the Padres (15.88 percent)

 

Took this from Jeff Passan's article on Yahoo! sports but it is from the BP site http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

so you just gotta add the percentage to win the division and the percentage of the wildcard for total percentage!!!

those odds are bulls***

 

the twins are 1/2 game better than the sox, yet they have an 18% better chance to make the playoffs because of that?

those odds are bulls***

 

the twins are 1/2 game better than the sox, yet they have an 18% better chance to make the playoffs because of that?

 

um, 7 home games vs. the Royals....

um, 7 home games vs. the Royals....

 

didn't realize that they took schedule into account, I thought it was purely percentage

it's all based on computer simulations of the remainder of the season