Both caucuses, both happening on Tuesday, 5/20. Some recent polls to chew on...

 

OREGON

 

Portland Tribune, 5/8-10: Obama +20

S-USA, 5/9-11: Obama +11

PPP (questionable), 5/10-11: Obama +14

 

KENTUCKY

 

only one poll since IN/NC...

Research 2000, 5/7-9: Clinton +27

 

SurveyUSA: Obama +13 in Oregon, Clinton +31 in Kentucky

Edited May 19, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000

Suffolk poll has Obama +4 in Oregon

Suffolk poll has Obama +4 in Oregon

 

I just can't buy that since he had 75,000 people at a rally yesterday, I'd think it's closer to the 13 the other poll mentions. He's going to be destroyed in Kentucky though, the Clinton spin machine will be in full cycle tomorrow night and Wednesday.

Edited May 20, 200817 yr by whitesoxfan101

I just can't buy that since he had 75,000 people at a rally yesterday, I'd think it's closer to the 13 the other poll mentions. He's going to be destroyed in Kentucky though, the Clinton spin machine will be in full cycle tomorrow night and Wednesday.

It won't matter. The fact that Obama is going to firmly come up with a lead in pledged delegates tomorrow is going to be something the media is happy to repeat, even though it's not fully true until Michigan and Florida are decided somehow. He should also guarantee himself a lead in any reasonable version of the popular vote.

 

Read a great line the other day. We finally came up with a solution to the Primary mess. Clinton fights on, while Obama drops out to run in the general election against McCain.

It won't matter. The fact that Obama is going to firmly come up with a lead in pledged delegates tomorrow is going to be something the media is happy to repeat, even though it's not fully true until Michigan and Florida are decided somehow. He should also guarantee himself a lead in any reasonable version of the popular vote.

 

Read a great line the other day. We finally came up with a solution to the Primary mess. Clinton fights on, while Obama drops out to run in the general election against McCain.

 

My comment about the Clinton spin cycle was more out of annoyance, she just needs to quit. Her staying in the race is only making her look bad.

My comment about the Clinton spin cycle was more out of annoyance, she just needs to quit. Her staying in the race is only making her look bad.

At least through tomorrow she's still useful. No matter how close the race, it doesn't look that good for the nominee to lose states after all of his opponents have dropped out. After this, Obama has likely wins finishing things out in Montana and South Dakota and Puerto Rico is stuck in there as well.

 

Obama's clearly pulling away in recent Gallup tracking polls. I think people are realizing it's essentially over, so now all that's left is for Hillary to bow out on her terms. She shouldn't be forced out until she's ready, because that will probably infuriate her voters.

Personally, I think Hillary and Obama struck a deal for her to continue... think about it. Obama doesn't want to claim outright victory with him getting his ass handed to him in the last three primaries in a row. It leaves doubt. He picked tonight, because the "last" state with results will be an Obama win, unlike the last two times contests have been held (Indiana and West Virginia). In that realm, Obama is a "loser" and "unelectable" and he doesn't need to answer those questions.

 

He'll have his "mission accomplished" statement after a win, not a loss.

He'll be under 100 delegates away from 2025 after tonight regardless... and Clinton will be 50 or so delegates away from being Mathematically shut out.

Here is why it ends tonight, even if Clinton is in world class denial.

 

Hillary's argument is that since FL and MI havent been counted, she can still win and Obama needs the superdelegates. Well, after tonight even IF you include FL and MI as is (with Obama getting the 55 uncommitted in MI), obama needs only 30% of the delegates from Puerto Rico to win 50% of the pledged delegate count. And with the supers as they stand today, Obama would need less than 100 of the 215 to win.

The race is over. Those who refuse to see that are simply in denial.

Is that a man or woman to the right of Hilldog?

 

The haircut and five o clock shadow say man, but the ruby red lips and physique say woman.

Hillary going to win by 250,000 in Kentucky. All we'll hear about is the popular vote now.

Hillary going to win by 250,000 in Kentucky. All we'll hear about is the popular vote now.

and even that metric is VERY flawed coming from her.

I hate Kentucky.

Question, if it were the other way around, with Hillary in front and Obama trailing with a slim chance to win, would Barack have conceded by now?

Question, if it were the other way around, with Hillary in front and Obama trailing with a slim chance to win, would Barack have conceded by now?

I like to think so. Didnt HUckabee say he couldn't win but still pushed on? I think he at least admitted publicly that he couldn't win. Correct me if I am wrong.

Question, if it were the other way around, with Hillary in front and Obama trailing with a slim chance to win, would Barack have conceded by now?

 

The scariest thing is sometimes I think Hillary is thinking maybe something "bad" will happen to Obama. I do know for a fact that the Secret Service is very, very concerned about this.

CNN proclaims Obama the pledged delegate winner.

CNN proclaims Obama the pledged delegate winner.

 

Barack has Hillary in the figure four. Just waiting for her to tap. Matter of time. She can't reach the ropes.

Question, if it were the other way around, with Hillary in front and Obama trailing with a slim chance to win, would Barack have conceded by now?

I find that scenario almost impossible to realize...but I think Obama probably would have conceded by now if he was in that spot somehow.

No numbers from Oregon yet?

No numbers from Oregon yet?

Polls there don't close until 8 pm PST and 11 pm EST.

CNN proclaims Obama the pledged delegate winner.

until Clinton's people change the rules.

 

Polls there don't close until 8 pm PST and 11 pm EST.

 

8? Yikes. Oregon people slow?