Link

The list:

1. Stephen Strasburg/WAS/RHP

2. Brian Matusz/BAL/LHP

3. Dan Hudson/CHW/RHP

4. Neftali Feliz/TEX/RHP

5. Jeremy Hellickson/TB/RHP

6. Wade Davis/TB/RHP

7. Carlos Carrasco/CLE/RHP

8. Jhoulys Chacin/COL/RHP

9. Madison Bumgarner/SF/LHP

10. Kyle Drabek/PHI/RHP

11. Martin Perez/TEX/LHP

12. Christian Friedrich/COL/LHP

13. Hector Rondon/CLE/RHP

14. Junichi Tazawa/BOS/RHP

15. Mike Leake/CIN/RHP

16. Jon Niese/NYM/LHP

17. Jake Arrieta/BAL/RHP

18. Jenrry Mejia/NYM/RHP

19. Casey Kelly/BOS/RHP

20. Michael Montgomery/KC/LHP

21. Jarrod Parker/ARI/RHP

22. Kevin Mulvey/ARI/RHP

23. Brad Lincoln/PIT/RHP

24. Matthew Moore/TB/LHP

25. Zeke Spruill/ATL/RHP

 

So, do you agree with Hudson's ranking on the list? Do you agree with the rest of the list?

 

Personally, I'd take a handful of guys ranked behind Hudson before I'd take him.

Edited October 8, 200916 yr by jenks45monster

Link

The list:

1. Stephen Strasburg/WAS/RHP

2. Brian Matusz/BAL/LHP

3. Dan Hudson/CHW/RHP

4. Neftali Feliz/TEX/RHP

5. Jeremy Hellickson/TB/RHP

6. Wade Davis/TB/RHP

7. Carlos Carrasco/CLE/RHP

8. Jhoulys Chacin/COL/RHP

9. Madison Bumgarner/SF/LHP

10. Kyle Drabek/PHI/RHP

11. Martin Perez/TEX/LHP

12. Christian Friedrich/COL/LHP

13. Hector Rondon/CLE/RHP

14. Junichi Tazawa/BOS/RHP

15. Mike Leake/CIN/RHP

16. Jon Niese/NYM/LHP

17. Jake Arrieta/BAL/RHP

18. Jenrry Mejia/NYM/RHP

19. Casey Kelly/BOS/RHP

20. Michael Montgomery/KC/LHP

21. Jarrod Parker/ARI/RHP

22. Kevin Mulvey/ARI/RHP

23. Brad Lincoln/PIT/RHP

24. Matthew Moore/TB/LHP

25. Zeke Spruill/ATL/RHP

 

So, do you agree with Hudson's ranking on the list? Do you agree with the rest of the list?

 

Personally, I'd take a handful of guys ranked behind Hudson before I'd take him.

 

 

Although they've gotten better about it over the past two years, project prospect is very much so based on sabermetrics and where a player is drafted over mechanics and stuff. Before he got promoted to Birmingham Hudson was never once mentioned on PP. Huddy should be further down. They just loved his minor league rise this year.

There were some points given for his ranking that high in the chat:

 

[Comment From Bill R]

Please give me some reasons why Dan Hudson is ranked so highly. I have just gotten done reading about the flaws in his mechanics and about how his groundball/fly ball rate has gotten worse as he has gone up in the ranks.

12:46

And another from the forums:

 

Hudson pitched in five different levels this season. He only topped 50 innings at one stop, so you're dealing with pretty small sample sizes if you want to break down his level-by-level splits. I'd caution against that.

 

Hudson really impressed me with the movement on both his fastball and changeup when I watched his big-league starts. With his low-3/4 arm slot -- near sidearm -- he's able to generate some outstanding arm-side run. Lefties are basically hopeless against him. And given all the movement he gets, his ability to command the zone -- albeit a bit raw -- is very promising. His fastball had about as much movement as any prospect who I watched this season...right up there with Rick Porcello.

 

I'm not too concerned with his mechanics. Lincoln did some analysis on him for me and mentioned some concern with his arm slot and load but said some of that should be dissapated by his abilty to pronate well. Every pitcher comes with injury risk, but I don't see Hudson as a drastically larger risk to get hurt than any other pitching prospect.

 

[Comment From Guest]

what kind of ceiling does dan hudson have? If you don't want fantasy question, ignore this; but i have a chance to trade for hudson or carmona. if you want, you can discuss this; if not, give me who you would take in a trade.

4:11

I like Hudson's odds of becoming at least a no. 3 starter. He has command of two offerings that I see as above-average pitches, his fastball and changeup. If he can groove his slider through the zone with consistent movement, he could surface as a no. 1-2 starter.

 

I'd gladly take him over Fausto Carmona right now.

 

Seriously? Only behind Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz? What a jump he's made in the last few months. If he stays behind those two for his major league career I sure would be happy, that's for sure.

Better than Neftali? That seems like a stretch. Maybe between Davis and Carrasco.

wow....id take a bunch of guys listed behind him first...but i must say the movement on the fastball impressed me as well...i'm glad to see that nonetheless

Considering the success he's had this year, I'd say it's fair.

If he's the 3rd best pitching prospect in baseball, Kenny needs to trade him ASAP and this is coming from the guy that was jizzing all over Huddy when I saw him this past spring.

If he's the 3rd best pitching prospect in baseball, Kenny needs to trade him ASAP and this is coming from the guy that was jizzing all over Huddy when I saw him this past spring.

 

I wouldn't trade him at all. But, if he was to be traded, what would be a good return?

Edited October 8, 200916 yr by JPN366

I don't agree with him being so high, but after so many years of Sox prospects being way too low on prospect lists, I'll take it.

I wouldn't trade him at all. But, if he was to be traded, what would be a good return?

As part of a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

As part of a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

 

What other 10 players would you throw in that deal?

What other 10 players would you throw in that deal?

All of them.

If he's the 3rd best pitching prospect in baseball, Kenny needs to trade him ASAP and this is coming from the guy that was jizzing all over Huddy when I saw him this past spring.

 

It would seem like his M.O. to do so. Huddy's value cannot be any higher.

That'd have to be a hell of a player. The Sox weren't willing to move Hudson at all during the regular season.

Wow. There are a whole of big names behind Hudson. Are we looking at the second Brandon McCarthy?

If we could get a guy like Fielder for Hudson, Ely, and Shelby, i'd pack their packs and send them along their merry, but i don't see that happening. I like what i see in Hudson, and assuming his control improves, he's going to play a huge factor in our rotation over the next decade or so.

What other 10 players would you throw in that deal?

 

The entire Double AA roster minus D2.

 

We have to give you new people to write about.

Wow. There are a whole of big names behind Hudson. Are we looking at the second Brandon McCarthy?

Maybe. Brandon's curve and change made a lot of people salivate, but that fastball was batting practice speed and straight as an arrow. Meanwhile Hudson doesn't have quite the offspeed stuff that Brandon had, but I've liked what I've seen out of his change, and Hudson's fastball is a far, far better pitch than Brandon's was. I'd call both Hudson's FB and change plus pitches and his slider and curve have potential. Hudson has a much better shot of making it than Brandon did, and also Hudson's delivery looks a lot cleaner.

 

I know you mean to compare the two in terms of their sudden rises to top pitching prospect status, but really Hudson doesn't have the stuff of a lot of those guys he's ranked above so I'm not sure if scouts would think quite as highly of him as the Project Prospect guys do. He's got a ton of value though because watching him pitch it's hard not to see him having great success either in the middle of a rotation or at the back of a bullpen. He's a f***ing warrior, man.

Hudson above Neftali? That list loses all credibility right there.

Hudson above Neftali? That list loses all credibility right there.

 

Not necessarily. Feliz has a big arm but still hasn't harnassed it yet. (He's averaged almost 4 walks per 9 innings in the minors. That's not going to cut it in the majors.)

 

Meanwhile, Hudson strikes out just as many as Feliz, but has much better control.

 

And the big plus for Hudson which propels him up so many lists has been the development of his changeup. Pitchers with plus changeups tend to do better in the majors than those without. And Hudson has a better changeup than most of the players on the list. That plus a good fastball with late movement... great combo... which is why he moved up so fast this year.

 

 

Not necessarily. Feliz has a big arm but still hasn't harnassed it yet. (He's averaged almost 4 walks per 9 innings in the minors. That's not going to cut it in the majors.)

 

Meanwhile, Hudson strikes out just as many as Feliz, but has much better control.

 

And the big plus for Hudson which propels him up so many lists has been the development of his changeup. Pitchers with plus changeups tend to do better in the majors than those without. And Hudson has a better changeup than most of the players on the list. That plus a good fastball with late movement... great combo... which is why he moved up so fast this year.

As far as im concerned, Feliz has already proven himself in the majors.

 

1.74 ERA, .677 WHIP, 39 strikeouts in 31 IP. He can easily be one of the best closers in the league.

As far as im concerned, Feliz has already proven himself in the majors.

 

1.74 ERA, .677 WHIP, 39 strikeouts in 31 IP. He can easily be one of the best closers in the league.

 

And in AAA, he had a 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 75 strikeouts in 77 innings, and a respectable but not great 2.5 to 1 K/BB ratio.

 

Could he be the next big thing? Maybe. But from a prospect perspective, I'll take a guy who has #3 starter potential over a reliever any day.

 

Also don't be overly influenced by the results of Feliz's 20 major league games played in September-October. Yeah, it was impressive, but a 3.9 BB / 9 innings average in the minors suggest that a larger MLB sample will probably bring him back down to earth. (ala Carlos Marmol)

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 200916 yr by scenario

As far as im concerned, Feliz has already proven himself in the majors.

 

1.74 ERA, .677 WHIP, 39 strikeouts in 31 IP. He can easily be one of the best closers in the league.

And that's where the argument for Hudson can be made, if you only project Feliz as a reliever and Dan Hudson as a mid rotation starter, which prospect is better?

 

I'd also have to say that it is somewhat naive to consider a pitcher proven based on just 31 innings pitched. He had an uncharacteristically low walk rate in hid brief Major League stint which I wouldn't expect him to carry on into 2010, added to that his strikeout rate, especially if he moves to the rotation, is likely to decrease, his BABIP of .185 is a near certainty to rise and his LOB% of 84.9% is also likely to decrease. Feliz could be great but he certainly is not proven.

Ranking these guys is all subjective anyway.