The Soxtalk Committee on Closing

[Kalapse]

Ok, had little time while watching the Nationals game to put some numbers together. This is a point I've been trying to make for a few weeks but I never compared it to any other closers in the game until now and the data proves out.

 

You closer is typically your best relief pitcher and almost always your highest paid reliever because of this he's going to pitch in some big time situations and not all of them will be with the lead. Unfortunately all save percentage shows you is how often the closer relinquished the lead rather than how often he gave the other team the lead. Meaning: you don't always have to have the lead to give the game to the other team, closers are often asked to pitch in tied ballgames usually it's a home game in the top of the 9th, others on the road in extras. These situations are just as important as a save opportunity if not more so -- a blown save doesn't always end with the opponent taking the lead but breaking up a tie does -- but the stat that the majority of your baseball fans will point to when evaluating a closer does not account for these situations: save percentage (those who can't look to something like WPA).

 

Anyway, I took all the closers in baseball with at least 10 saves and recorded the following info: saves, blown saves, save opportunities, games entered and exited with the score tied, games entered with the lead but exited with a deficit and total tied games entered and from there defined: All save opps (save opps + tied opps), all games saved (saves + games entered and exited with score tied), all games blown (blown saves + games entered with the lead but exited with a deficit) and from there I got True Save percentage which is all games saved divided by all save opps, this should give you a slightly better idea of a closer's success in standard closer situations compared to save percentage.

 

 

Jenks ranked 21st out of 24 closers with an 80% success rate even though he ranks 5th in salary.

[justBLAZE]

This is outstanding piece of work Kalapse.

[lostfan]

I think that needs to be posted for every Jenks argument or every time someone says "but he got the save..."

[ThunderBolt]

That's a fantastic post, Kalapse. Nice work.

[iamshack]

He also is tied for the fewest opportunities.

 

Perhaps if we start putting ourselves in more opportunities to win ballgames his numbers will increase along with the more regular work.

 

I hope so anyways.

 

His recent outings have been a big improvement.

[lostfan]

His recent outings have been a big improvement.

They have. My stomach used to sink almost to Linebrink levels the first few weeks of the season when I'd see him entering the game, in contrast to how I used to feel relaxed and confident when he'd come in a year ago.