Is that a strike? Looks low.

looked a little low

Good job Hot Fire!

 

When are you gonna let this go, it wont catch on.. ever

good eye. that was a ball. hawk doesn't know what he's talking about

There ya go Becks!

Boom! Gordon.

Great job Gordon. I can't believe you have double the RBIs of Juan Pierre.

nice.

The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk.

 

When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good.

Edited June 30, 201015 yr by chw42

Gordon looked bad during that at bat, and then all of the sudden he does that.

 

I don't know what to think with this kid.

Keep it moving.

a rare Juan Pierre RBI

 

The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk.

 

When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good.

But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count?

Billy Butler is pretty awful in the field.

Amazing!!!!!! We have seen something rare this baseball season!

CST_SOX: Nats writers are reporting Sox have scouts at the Washington game tonight.

Bannister is really missing his spots.

CST_SOX: Nats writers are reporting Sox have scouts at the Washington game tonight.

I love this...like we don't know the book on Adam Dunn yet?

But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count?

 

I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying.

 

And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense.

 

If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34.

I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying.

 

And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense.

 

If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34.

So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number?

Gavin is wearing Alexei out.

I love this...like we don't know the book on Adam Dunn yet?

 

Maybe Adun Dunn +. Who knows.

So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number?

 

Yeah, but usually, most steals are for second base and it's usually with no outs or one out, so we can basically assume. If you're around 75%, you're not hurting your team. If you're below that, don't really bother.

Great inning for Gavin.

 

Cowley says that "KW is either pulling out all the stops for the bluff or is trying to get something done quickly for A Dunn."

Great inning for Gavin.

 

Cowley says that "KW is either pulling out all the stops for the bluff or is trying to get something done quickly for A Dunn."

 

The quicker the better.