September 7, 201114 yr Is this a strange year, or what? Seems like there are an inordinate amount of teams spending and not getting results, compared to most years. 7 of the top 12 will likely miss the playoffs. LA Angels - 77-65 (5th in AL) - $138 million in payroll (4th overall) White Sox - 71-69 (7th in AL) - $127 million in payroll (5th overall) Chicago Cubs - 61-81 (2nd worst in NL) - $125 million in payroll (6th overall) New York Mets - 69-71 (8th in NL) - $118 million in payroll (7th overall) San Francisco Giants 75-67 (t5th in NL) - $118 million in payroll (8th overall) Minnesota Twins - 58-84 (worst in AL) - $112 million in payroll (9th overall) LA Dodgers - 69-72 (9th in NL) - $104 million in payroll (12th overall) Edited September 7, 201114 yr by Greg Hibbard
September 7, 201114 yr Wouldn't this be a Diamond Club thread? Because otherwise, it just looks like you're trying to justify the White Sox sucking.
September 7, 201114 yr Author This thread could go in either place, because I'm really wondering if this bizarre trend that includes the White Sox has a somewhat empirical explanation. If I had to guess, salaries have finally gotten so inflated that the variance in returns to salary is jacked way up.
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:35 AM) This thread could go in either place, because I'm really wondering if this bizarre trend that includes the White Sox has a somewhat empirical explanation. If I had to guess, salaries have finally gotten so inflated that the variance in returns to salary is jacked way up. Or you could guess that payroll doesn't correlate to won games and never really has.
September 7, 201114 yr And this also proves that overpaying in years/money for 'proven' free agents come with just about as much risk as prospects do. I'm still laughing at the Jason Bay signing. That had 'DON'T DO IT!!!' highlighted in permanent red ink the minute he became a FA.
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (Felix @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:36 AM) Or you could guess that payroll doesn't correlate to won games and never really has. 1-2-3 are all going to the playoffs.
September 7, 201114 yr Author QUOTE (Felix @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:36 AM) Or you could guess that payroll doesn't correlate to won games and never really has. In 2000 (the first example I looked at), 6 of the top 9 teams went to the postseason. Edit: In 2001, 6 of the top 11 teams went to the postseason. Edited September 7, 201114 yr by Greg Hibbard
September 7, 201114 yr Or you could guess that payroll doesn't correlate to won games and never really has. It correlates to winning games for the Yankees and Red Sox, and perhaps now the Phillies, who can outbid everybody else for the elite talent. It does NOT correlate to winning games for the other teams, because the money that the top 3 spend on elite players cause the next tier of players to get overpaid by the next tier of teams.
September 7, 201114 yr They say misery loves company. We can build a factory and make misery. Frustrated incorporated.
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:46 AM) They say misery loves company. We can build a factory and make misery. Frustrated incorporated. All of the sudden I hate you.
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 06:47 AM) All of the sudden I hate you. hahaa ! How come ? Don't like that song ?
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:41 AM) In 2000 (the first example I looked at), 6 of the top 9 teams went to the postseason. Edit: In 2001, 6 of the top 11 teams went to the postseason. This year it will be 4 of the top 10, unless the Angels pull a comeback (they would make 5). Last year was 4 of the top 10 as well. Edited September 7, 201114 yr by LittleHurt05
September 7, 201114 yr Author QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:53 AM) This year it will be 4 of the top 10, unless the Angels pull a comeback (they would make 5). Last year was 4 of the top 10 as well. Right, so 75% of the playoff teams came from the top 10(ish) in payroll 10 years ago, and the last two years it's 50%. Edited September 7, 201114 yr by Greg Hibbard
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:35 AM) This thread could go in either place, because I'm really wondering if this bizarre trend that includes the White Sox has a somewhat empirical explanation. If I had to guess, salaries have finally gotten so inflated that the variance in returns to salary is jacked way up. With the Sox it may be a matter of improving the farm system.
September 7, 201114 yr It's fun to read what the fans on Twin island have to say. Not too long ago Santana wanted out because of lack of mid and off season improvements. So now they give Mauer a big payday and the fans hate it. It's hard to have it both ways.
September 7, 201114 yr QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:41 AM) In 2000 (the first example I looked at), 6 of the top 9 teams went to the postseason. Edit: In 2001, 6 of the top 11 teams went to the postseason. Between 1995 and 2005, the correlation between market size and playoff appearances is .11, meaning markets have very little to do with a team making the postseason. While this isn't exactly what you're saying, I think it still applies pretty well, especially since most people associate big market teams with big payrolls. Again, not exactly what you're going for, but if you go by the teams with the top revenue, the correlation is .51, which is naturally significantly higher, but it's also much more misleading since teams in the playoffs make more money than those that miss the postseason. I think the first correlation is more along the lines of what you're going for. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. That being said, looking at more than individual years would certainly strengthen your argument. Wake me up when you've looked at the last 10-20 seasons.
September 8, 201114 yr QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 09:46 AM) They say misery loves company. We can build a factory and make misery. Frustrated incorporated. You just quoted a Soul Asylum song...you sir are one of the greatest posters who has ever lived.
September 8, 201114 yr QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 7, 2011 -> 08:27 AM) Is this a strange year, or what? Seems like there are an inordinate amount of teams spending and not getting results, compared to most years. 7 of the top 12 will likely miss the playoffs. LA Angels - 77-65 (5th in AL) - $138 million in payroll (4th overall) White Sox - 71-69 (7th in AL) - $127 million in payroll (5th overall) Chicago Cubs - 61-81 (2nd worst in NL) - $125 million in payroll (6th overall) New York Mets - 69-71 (8th in NL) - $118 million in payroll (7th overall) San Francisco Giants 75-67 (t5th in NL) - $118 million in payroll (8th overall) Minnesota Twins - 58-84 (worst in AL) - $112 million in payroll (9th overall) LA Dodgers - 69-72 (9th in NL) - $104 million in payroll (12th overall) And this is what happens when teams throw money around wildly. If you're not a big market and your GM isn't all-so-brilliant, all-in is a horrible strategy.
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