Romney wins by 8.

8 votes? Holy Frijoles.

 

So, as some have stated, the main purpose of Iowa is to narrow the field. We had 8 candidates getting significant support, about 2 months ago... then Cain imploded, leaving 7.

 

Iowa looks like it will flush Perry and Bachmann out of the race (thank God). Now we're at 5. Now for my predictions...

 

New Hampshire is of course the firewall for Huntsman - his only possible shot is if Romney starts to tumble (for whatever reason, maybe he loses votes to Santorum) and he manages to win NH or be close to winning. And since that is incredibly unlikely, NH will probably spell the end for him. That leaves 4 - Romney, Paul, Santorum and Gingrich.

 

I think Santorum's near-victory in Iowa is being overblown in terms of importance. He lived there for 3 months, went to all 99 counties, basically bet the farm. He won't do well in NH, so I think NH goes: Romney (by a lot), Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum. So I'm guessing Santorum is hanging by a thread after NH.

 

South Carolina is next. If Romney wins SC, it is all over, but I don't think he will. If Gingrich or Santorum can pull off a win or stay neck-and-neck at least, then they stay in. Paul will likely not do well in SC. I predict SC ends in a huge mess, with Gingrich just edging out Romney, Santorum and Paul in the second tier. So we stay at 4.

 

Florida will rid us of Santorum, who will have gotten beaten badly in NH and finished near-bottom in SC. Romney will win it by a lot. That leaves Romney, a limping Gingrich, and Paul.

 

Gingrich will run out of money in Florida, and get creamed in Nevada. So after Nevada, which is around the same time as Romney-easy Maine, Gingrich drops out, basically handing Romney the crown. Paul will stay in, and he may even make things interesting for a while in states like NV, ME, and AZ. But by Super Tuesday, Romney will have raked in enough points that it won't matter.

 

Here is the nightmare scenario for Republicans though - Romney does win the nod, but Paul has so much grass roots support that he chooses to run as an "I" in the General. Might happen.

 

I don't think it's being blown out of proportion, it is absolutely incredible that that man could come even close to winning any primary/caucus is an absolute embarrassment for our democracy.

I don't think it's being blown out of proportion, it is absolutely incredible that that man could come even close to winning any primary/caucus is an absolute embarrassment for our democracy.

same as huckabee. it won't matter

He is so much worse than huckabee.

8 votes? Holy Frijoles.

 

So, as some have stated, the main purpose of Iowa is to narrow the field. We had 8 candidates getting significant support, about 2 months ago... then Cain imploded, leaving 7.

 

Iowa looks like it will flush Perry and Bachmann out of the race (thank God). Now we're at 5. Now for my predictions...

 

New Hampshire is of course the firewall for Huntsman - his only possible shot is if Romney starts to tumble (for whatever reason, maybe he loses votes to Santorum) and he manages to win NH or be close to winning. And since that is incredibly unlikely, NH will probably spell the end for him. That leaves 4 - Romney, Paul, Santorum and Gingrich.

 

I think Santorum's near-victory in Iowa is being overblown in terms of importance. He lived there for 3 months, went to all 99 counties, basically bet the farm. He won't do well in NH, so I think NH goes: Romney (by a lot), Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum. So I'm guessing Santorum is hanging by a thread after NH.

 

South Carolina is next. If Romney wins SC, it is all over, but I don't think he will. If Gingrich or Santorum can pull off a win or stay neck-and-neck at least, then they stay in. Paul will likely not do well in SC. I predict SC ends in a huge mess, with Gingrich just edging out Romney, Santorum and Paul in the second tier. So we stay at 4.

 

Florida will rid us of Santorum, who will have gotten beaten badly in NH and finished near-bottom in SC. Romney will win it by a lot. That leaves Romney, a limping Gingrich, and Paul.

 

Gingrich will run out of money in Florida, and get creamed in Nevada. So after Nevada, which is around the same time as Romney-easy Maine, Gingrich drops out, basically handing Romney the crown. Paul will stay in, and he may even make things interesting for a while in states like NV, ME, and AZ. But by Super Tuesday, Romney will have raked in enough points that it won't matter.

 

Here is the nightmare scenario for Republicans though - Romney does win the nod, but Paul has so much grass roots support that he chooses to run as an "I" in the General. Might happen.

 

Huntsman really can stay in with a strong top 3 performance in New Hampshire. Nobody's expecting to beat Romney in his backyard. He's run with little money to begin with, but he can stay in for quite a while.

He is so much worse than huckabee.

nah that's just your memory not remembering as clearly - Huckabee was terrifying too.

 

They're both the devil incarnate though. Santorum will be done before february.

Huntsman really can stay in with a strong top 3 performance in New Hampshire. Nobody's expecting to beat Romney in his backyard. He's run with little money to begin with, but he can stay in for quite a while.

I don't know... I think SC and FL will be tough for him, he has to make it to NV intact. And IMO, the only way to do that is Top 2 in NH, hope for a backslide from Romney, and campaign like hell in SC or FL. If he's in 3rd or lower in NH, I think he drops out. If he's in 2nd in NH, he continues, but needs to get a Top 3 finish in one of FL or SC, to make it to NV still breathing - and then he needs to win NV or be close to it. He just isn't getting enough financial support to make it any other way.

 

I don't know... I think SC and FL will be tough for him, he has to make it to NV intact. And IMO, the only way to do that is Top 2 in NH, hope for a backslide from Romney, and campaign like hell in SC or FL. If he's in 3rd or lower in NH, I think he drops out. If he's in 2nd in NH, he continues, but needs to get a Top 3 finish in one of FL or SC, to make it to NV still breathing - and then he needs to win NV or be close to it. He just isn't getting enough financial support to make it any other way.

I think it depends on what that third place looks like. Remember, over 60% of delegates aren't awarded until after March.

Why would/should Huntsman do well in NH?

 

Don't quite see it.

 

Santorum will likely finish a tight 3rd/4th....and do VERY well in SC, maybe even coming in a close 2nd.

 

Depends on how much soft money the GOP uses to crush Santorum so as to protect Romney for the general campaign.

 

Paul going independent really would hurt the GOP just like Nader in the past (to Gore), or Perot in 1992 (that worked to Clinton's advantage, clearly).

Edited January 4, 201214 yr by caulfield12

Why would/should Huntsman do well in NH?

 

Don't quite see it.

 

Santorum will likely finish a tight 3rd/4th....and do VERY well in SC, maybe even coming in a close 2nd.

 

Depends on how much soft money the GOP uses to crush Santorum so as to protect Romney for the general campaign.

 

Paul going independent really would hurt the GOP just like Nader in the past (to Gore), or Perot in 1992 (that worked to Clinton's advantage, clearly).

 

Paul has never shown any inclination to run as an I. He has had the chance before.

Paul won't run as an independent. The retribution to his son would be severe.