2012-2013 NFL Thread

[Soxbadger]

Here is what I found on suicide rate in NFL

 

http://www.gamesover.org/retirement/when_the_cheering_stops

 

# Depression — The suicide rate among former NFL players is nearly six times the national average.

 

Here is NIMH on suicide, I cant find any explicit NFL stats

 

http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publication...ion/index.shtml

 

 

 

 

[flippedoutpunk]

This is not correct. You are misunderstanding what the statistics represent and what "tripling" the rate of depression means.

 

explain then please, because to the average meatball if we look at that study were getting the idea that the other 80 percent of the 595 are perfectly fine and dandy.

[Balta1701]

explain then please, because to the average meatball if we look at that study were getting the idea that the other 80 percent of the 595 are perfectly fine and dandy.

A reasonable margin of error on a survey of 600 respondents is about 4 percentage points. If you survey 600 people, and the depression rate in the full population is 5%, then 95% of the surveys you take should give results between 1 and 9%, and 99% should give results between 0% and ~13%.

 

Having it come out at a rate of 20% from a sample just by random chance when the real number is 5% would happen about once in 1.7 million surveys if the 2 things you were looking at were truly uncorrelated.

 

For another way of stating it...the odds of having a group of 120 come out of a group of 600 when the real value should be 40 is only slightly better than the odds of hitting a pick 6 lottery.

[StrangeSox]

explain then please, because to the average meatball if we look at that study were getting the idea that the other 80 percent of the 595 are perfectly fine and dandy.

 

This is correct. The other 80% did not suffer from depression. When you are speaking about rates of a disease, you are speaking about population sets, not individuals. The incidence rate of depression is three times higher in the 3+ concussion population than it is in the non-3+ concussion population. That is a HUGE leap. I believe asbestos has a similar effect on increasing cancer rates, and there's essentially no doubt that asbestos exposure increases the likelihood of developing cancer.

 

Saying that "concussions cause depression" is short-hand, but it isn't the same as "everyone who has 3+ concussions kills themselves," just as not everyone who smokes gets lung cancer.

[Jenksismyhero]

I love how the scientists often stick together on this site.

 

Anyhoo, I agree with Steve. Are the concussions a factor? Sure. But so is your wife leaving you and taking your kids away.

[Soxbadger]

I love how the scientists often stick together on this site.

 

Anyhoo, I (dis)agree with Steve. Are the concussions a factor? Sure. But so is your wife leaving you and taking your kids away.

 

I fixed that for you as you are agreeing with Strangesox, Balta and myself, who said that concussions are a factor.

 

Steve's position was that concussions were not a factor at all. He flip-flopped about half way through and tried to argue that he really meant to say that concussions are just a factor, but no one was ever suggesting that concussions were the only factor.

 

(Edit)

 

Saying concussions are the only factor is just as silly as saying concussions are no factor. Which is why so many people were outraged by Steve's original comment that concussions play no role and he doesnt believe in them because other celebrities commit suicide too.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Soxbadger

[Steve9347]

I fixed that for you as you are agreeing with Strangesox, Balta and myself, who said that concussions are a factor.

 

Steve's position was that concussions were not a factor at all. He flip-flopped about half way through and tried to argue that he really meant to say that concussions are just a factor, but no one was ever suggesting that concussions were the only factor.

 

(Edit)

 

Saying concussions are the only factor is just as silly as saying concussions are no factor. Which is why so many people were outraged by Steve's original comment that concussions play no role and he doesnt believe in them because other celebrities commit suicide too.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=2588817

[StrangeSox]

I love how the scientists often stick together on this site.

 

Anyhoo, I agree with Steve. Are the concussions a factor? Sure. But so is your wife leaving you and taking your kids away.

 

 

I think Balta's the only scientist itt.

 

Spouses leave people and take their children in the control population, too. That's the point of trying to isolate variables. What reason do you have to conclude that concussions (read: brain injuries) aren't a significant risk factor for depression?:

[Soxbadger]

Unfortunately there is no legitimate way for me to claim to be a scientist.

 

Grr.

[Jenksismyhero]

I think Balta's the only scientist itt.

 

Spouses leave people and take their children in the control population, too. That's the point of trying to isolate variables. What reason do you have to conclude that concussions (read: brain injuries) aren't a significant risk factor for depression?:

 

I thought you were too?

 

And I don't, but millions of people suffer from depression and don't off themselves. To me concussions create a condition. They're not specifically the cause. Something pushed these people over the edge.

 

End of the day I don't really care one way or the other. I think this entire story is sad, but it's not changing my views of football. As i've said before, these guys get paid more money in a couple of years than i'll every make in my lifetime. It's an inherently dangerous game. To sue the NFL over this stuff is dumb.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Jenksismybitch

[Soxbadger]

Jenks,

 

I agree that football is inherently violent. I just believe that if the NFL purposefully lied to players about the risks they may be entitled to some sort of compensation.

 

My main statement was that the NFL should get their act together and start being proactive, because ex-NFL players killing themselves isnt good regardless of the cause.

[GoodAsGould]

I think sometimes just the star treatment and being forgotten after your career is a bigger factor than concussions especially with the ego's athletes in general tend to have... Are concussions a factor, maybe but imo the type of people these people or are have become thanks to being a pro athlete are the reasons.

[Soxbadger]

I dont think anyone will argue that there isnt an increased suicide rate in athletes (baseball has had a lot http://www.baseball-almanac.com/legendary/...baseball.shtml), the difference is that in baseball you havent heard of most of these players. They werent star athletes who just couldnt take not being well known.

 

It could turn out that there is no correlation, but what does it hurt to investigate and confirm? Or what does it hurt to have suicide counseling for NFL players where they can discuss the loss of fame, or their family leaving them or any thing else that may cause them to kill themselves?

 

I guess I just dont agree that the NFL should do nothing because there is a chance (even if its a good chance) that concussions have no relation to suicide.

[StrangeSox]

I thought you were too?

 

And I don't, but millions of people suffer from depression and don't off themselves. To me concussions create a condition. They're not specifically the cause. Something pushed these people over the edge.

 

End of the day I don't really care one way or the other. I think this entire story is sad, but it's not changing my views of football. As i've said before, these guys get paid more money in a couple of years than i'll every make in my lifetime. It's an inherently dangerous game. To sue the NFL over this stuff is dumb.

I'm an engineer.

 

Right now we are discussing the increased risk of depression, not just suicide. I don't believe depression and suicide are that simple, either, with something pushing someone over the edge. There is a large physiological component.

[Balta1701]

I'm an engineer.

 

Right now we are discussing the increased risk of depression, not just suicide. I don't believe depression and suicide are that simple, either, with something pushing someone over the edge. There is a large physiological component.

No one here is going to sit here and say that "Brain injuries are the only cause of depression and suicide", but the original statement was the opposite, that these guys having their brains turned to mush has no impact.

[StrangeSox]

I think sometimes just the star treatment and being forgotten after your career is a bigger factor than concussions especially with the ego's athletes in general tend to have... Are concussions a factor, maybe but imo the type of people these people or are have become thanks to being a pro athlete are the reasons.

Do other celebrities face similar rates of depression? Eg nba players? Seems like an ready comparison that wouldn't make it past peer review if celebrity status was a likely factor.

 

Everyday people face a whole host of issues as well. Actual clinical depression is more involved than being bummed out that your spouse left you.

Edited May 2, 2012 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

No one here is going to sit here and say that "Brain injuries are the only cause of depression and suicide", but the original statement was the opposite, that these guys having their brains turned to mush has no impact.

I'm 100% in agreement with you so far in this thread?

[StrangeSox]

Jenks,

 

I agree that football is inherently violent. I just believe that if the NFL purposefully lied to players about the risks they may be entitled to some sort of compensation.

 

My main statement was that the NFL should get their act together and start being proactive, because ex-NFL players killing themselves isnt good regardless of the cause.

Exactly. You can't argue informed consent if one party is deliberately withholding or distorting vital info.

[Balta1701]

Jenks,

 

I agree that football is inherently violent. I just believe that if the NFL purposefully lied to players about the risks they may be entitled to some sort of compensation.

 

My main statement was that the NFL should get their act together and start being proactive, because ex-NFL players killing themselves isnt good regardless of the cause.

One other thig to recognize is that every time one of these happens...it makes the NfL look bad even if they are completely forward about the risks. So, there's a solid benefit to the league for being proactive in these cases, but it would require them admitting it is a particular issue, which they can't do.

[Balta1701]

Oh, and one I forgot to mention yesterday...another thing playing into these NFL player quick deaths/suicides is probably PED use (again, not alleging this specific case).

[LittleHurt05]

Ravens LB Terrell Suggs' 2012 season in doubt, tore his Achilles playing basketball

[Kyyle23]

Ravens LB Terrell Suggs' 2012 season in doubt, tore his Achilles playing basketball

 

I dont even think it is in doubt. He gawn

[Balta1701]

I dont even think it is in doubt. He gawn

Well, a "6-9 month recovery time" for an ACL tear was given as the number for another recent ACL tear, and that puts it right in the middle of the NFL season if it's at the short end...then depends on if you want to keep the guy having a roster spot for 8-12 games when he can't play.

[Kyyle23]

Well, a "6-9 month recovery time" for an ACL tear was given as the number for another recent ACL tear, and that puts it right in the middle of the NFL season if it's at the short end...then depends on if you want to keep the guy having a roster spot for 8-12 games when he can't play.

 

this isnt ACL balta. THis is achilles

[Balta1701]

this isnt ACL balta. THis is achilles

 

Can I claim the "It's morning" excuse?

 

Anyway, point to you, 30 demerits to me.