Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[southsider2k5]

This is exactly right.

 

The idea that if he turns in to Carlos Lee it's a "major" win for the Sox, no it's not. Carlos Lee was okay when he was cheap, but he became a liability once his salary went up. Viciedo doesn't have as many cheap years as Lee did.

 

Carlos Lee's production also crashed once he got rich and fat. If he was still putting up .300/30/110 and OPS's near .900, he would still be worth his deal.

[caulfield12]

This is exactly right.

 

The idea that if he turns in to Carlos Lee it's a "major" win for the Sox, no it's not. Carlos Lee was okay when he was cheap, but he became a liability once his salary went up. Viciedo doesn't have as many cheap years as Lee did.

 

 

When is Viciedo going to be making $6.5 million dollars?

 

Keep in mind, that's Carlos Lee's 2004 salary...so it should probably be adjusted upwards to $7.5-8.0 million in current dollars.

 

He's not going to make that money in 2013 or 2014.

 

He's not even going to make Carlos Quentin's 2012 salary of just over $7 million, in his 6th season.

 

So we should trade Dayan Viciedo, who we've already invested $10 million into and whose rights we control for the next six years...in the prime production years of ages 23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30...for who EXACTLY?

 

Your naming some hot-shot prospect on another team flies in the face of his "perceived value" because if you and Iamshack can clearly see all his hitting defects, even Greg Walker might not be able to fix him.

 

In which case, you want WHO to be playing LF?

 

Don't say Brent Lillibridge, you want him at SS after you've traded Alexei Ramirez. So Fukudome playing everyday?

 

Sounds like giving up now, not rebuilding.

Edited April 27, 2012 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

$10 million signing bonus I would assume.

At this point that's pretty much a sunk cost, isn't it? You've spent that money even if you release him. But otherwise, he's still under team control for the full arbitration cycle.

[southsider2k5]

At this point that's pretty much a sunk cost, isn't it? You've spent that money even if you release him. But otherwise, he's still under team control for the full arbitration cycle.

 

I'm not agreeing, just trying to follow his logic.

[caulfield12]

$4M signing bonus

09:$1M, 10:$1.25M, 11:$1.25M, 12:$2.5M

 

Basically, he's too expensive to even afford for a team valued at over half a billion dollars in the one of the largest media markets in the US, so we should have players like Mark Teahen and Jason Frasor on our payroll instead.

 

Ooops, if we have to trade Dayan because we can't afford him, that must mean KW has misallocated the budget he was given.

 

Fire him!

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

I'm not agreeing, just trying to follow his logic.

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm going to guess the only reason why a person would specifically say we have Viciedo for less time than Lee is that person doesn't understand that Viciedo has the same arbitration path as a normal ballplayer.

[iamshack]

Wow...defensive, anyone?

 

Pardon anyone who doesn't see the guy panning out...

 

 

[caulfield12]

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm going to guess the only reason why a person would specifically say we have Viciedo for less time than Lee is that person doesn't understand that Viciedo has the same arbitration path as a normal ballplayer.

 

And we know someone with the Pulitzer prize-winning Sun-Times would never make such an elementary mistake, right?

 

 

[iamshack]

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm going to guess the only reason why a person would specifically say we have Viciedo for less time than Lee is that person doesn't understand that Viciedo has the same arbitration path as a normal ballplayer.

If that was the case, this would be his final year with us, and he would have definitely not been worth the wait

[Balta1701]

If that was the case, this would be his final year with us, and he would have definitely not been worth the wait

In that case, yes, there would be general agreement to that statement.

[caulfield12]

Wow...defensive, anyone?

 

Pardon anyone who doesn't see the guy panning out...

 

 

I've defended Viciedo from Day One.

 

Where's your track record going back to 2008/09/10/11 predicting his failure?

 

Simply based on his major league at-bats in 2011 and 2012?

 

If you can see all of his flaws, what makes you think every GM in the game wouldn't have already identified them years ago when they had a chance to sign him and passed?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm going to guess the only reason why a person would specifically say we have Viciedo for less time than Lee is that person doesn't understand that Viciedo has the same arbitration path as a normal ballplayer.

 

Also FWIW he still has not amassed a full season in MLB for arbitration purposes.

[southsider2k5]

I've defended Viciedo from Day One.

 

Where's your track record going back to 2008/09/10/11 predicting his failure?

 

Simply based on his major league at-bats in 2011 and 2012?

 

If you can see all of his flaws, what makes you think every GM in the game wouldn't have already identified them years ago when they had a chance to sign him and passed?

 

His track record is exactly 276 plate appearances spread out over 83 games. That is 3.3 PA per game, meaning many of those weren't even full games.

[iamshack]

I've defended Viciedo from Day One.

 

Where's your track record going back to 2008/09/10/11 predicting his failure?

 

Simply based on his major league at-bats in 2011 and 2012?

 

If you can see all of his flaws, what makes you think every GM in the game wouldn't have already identified them years ago when they had a chance to sign him and passed?

Why does it matter since when you have defended him and since when I have predicted failure?

 

I never stated I hated the signing, or I've hated him as a prospect since 2008 or 2009.

 

Put down the opium, dude.

 

I never claimed to be a professional scout, nor have I claimed there is no room for disagreement amongst those professional scouts or GMs.

 

What I have stated several times now is that I would like to move him now, while there still are people that are high on him, and before the scouting and GM community does reach a consensus that he isn't a good MLB prospect any longer.

 

A few times some of you guys defending him have stated that he doesn't have much value on the trade market, of which I have stated I disagree. If he doesn't have that value, than what exactly are you seeing that the professionals are not?

[caulfield12]

So what's the next thread?

 

Dick Allen brought it up in the game thread last night.

 

Alexei Ramirez should be traded because he's PROBABLY older than his official age and by the time we're actually competitive, he will be well past his prime and trending downwards in all aspect of the game...and that maybe his April offensive woes aren't the typical "he'll warm up eventually in the summer months as usual" but the first signs of real decline.

[caulfield12]

Why does it matter since when you have defended him and since when I have predicted failure?

 

I never stated I hated the signing, or I've hated him as a prospect since 2008 or 2009.

 

Put down the opium, dude.

 

I never claimed to be a professional scout, nor have I claimed there is no room for disagreement amongst those professional scouts or GMs.

 

What I have stated several times now is that I would like to move him now, while there still are people that are high on him, and before the scouting and GM community does reach a consensus that he isn't a good MLB prospect any longer.

 

A few times some of you guys defending him have stated that he doesn't have much value on the trade market, of which I have stated I disagree. If he doesn't have that value, than what exactly are you seeing that the professionals are not?

 

 

I'm the one smoking the opium when there are only two posters on this entire site arguing/supporting your case, and maybe Greg if Viciedo had a bad game the night before will join in on "your side" too?

 

Sure, if you say so.

Edited April 27, 2012 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

So what's the next thread?

 

Dick Allen brought it up in the game thread last night.

 

Alexei Ramirez should be traded because he's PROBABLY older than his official age and by the time we're actually competitive, he will be well past his prime and trending downwards in all aspect of the game...and that maybe his April offensive woes aren't the typical "he'll warm up eventually in the summer months as usual" but the first signs of real decline.

 

marty posted that thread months ago...

[caulfield12]

Why does it matter since when you have defended him and since when I have predicted failure?

 

I never stated I hated the signing, or I've hated him as a prospect since 2008 or 2009.

 

Put down the opium, dude.

 

I never claimed to be a professional scout, nor have I claimed there is no room for disagreement amongst those professional scouts or GMs.

 

What I have stated several times now is that I would like to move him now, while there still are people that are high on him, and before the scouting and GM community does reach a consensus that he isn't a good MLB prospect any longer.

 

A few times some of you guys defending him have stated that he doesn't have much value on the trade market, of which I have stated I disagree. If he doesn't have that value, than what exactly are you seeing that the professionals are not?

 

 

He's 23 freakin' years old. Some GM's will still consider guys like Matt Thornton or Joe Borchard prospects into their late 20's even.

 

 

[iamshack]

I'm the one smoking the opium when there are only two posters on this entire site arguing/supporting your case, and maybe Greg if Viciedo had a bad game the night before will join in on "your side" too?

 

Sure, if you say so.

Or maybe it's a White Sox message board and the readers that actually post the most, especially outside of game threads, tend to be among the most optimistic fans?

 

Are you honestly trying to argue that I can't have an opinion that I don't like the guy as a prospect? And if I did want to have such an opinion I need to compile a history of prior posts supporting said opinion going back four years, despite no statement that I disliked the signing in the first place?

 

 

[iamshack]

He's 23 freakin' years old. Some GM's will still consider guys like Matt Thornton or Joe Borchard prospects into their late 20's even.

I agree. This is why I'm advocating trading him while he still holds some value.

[southsider2k5]

Or maybe it's a White Sox message board and the readers that actually post the most, especially outside of game threads, tend to be among the most optimistic fans?

 

Are you honestly trying to argue that I can't have an opinion that I don't like the guy as a prospect? And if I did want to have such an opinion I need to compile a history of prior posts supporting said opinion going back four years, despite no statement that I disliked the signing in the first place?

 

It also tends to be the biggest cluster of negativity out there.

[iamshack]

It also tends to be the biggest cluster of negativity out there.

Viciedo is the Golden Boy that fans are hoping will fill the void left by Gordon Beckham.

 

Having an opinion that he won't pan out as expected is certainly not going to be popular.

 

I guess that means that means that opinion is wrong to express in the first place.

[southsider2k5]

Viciedo is the Golden Boy that fans are hoping will fill the void left by Gordon Beckham.

 

Having an opinion that he won't pan out as expected is certainly not going to be popular.

 

I guess that means that means that opinion is wrong to express in the first place.

 

It probably means you should expect to be disagreed with, and to be able to accept that.

[iamshack]

It probably means you should expect to be disagreed with, and to be able to accept that.

I've got no problem being disagreed with.

 

I think it's gone a bit beyond that.

[caulfield12]

Nobody said anything about him being the "Golden Boy."

 

Beckham was the only one who had a shot to be that, and he's blown it, at least 90% of the opportunity he had at being the "Derek Jeter" of the White Sox.

 

Is Dayan Viciedo our best current hope among our current major league roster to be an impact bat? Yes, there's no doubt about that.

 

Is he going to win an MVP or get tons of endorsements or make any fans forget about Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura or even Crede and Rowand? No way.

 

At this point, just "solid" major leaguers who are cost-controlled and put up average or above offensive production is what we're desperately in need of moving forward.

 

 

If Conor Jackson or Brandon Inge or ANYONE can put up a 750 OPS and play a capable 3B, I'd be happy to call them a Golden Boy, too.

If Brent Morel or Gordon Beckham could even put up a 675 or 700 OPS, I'll call them "Golden Boys" if it will make you happy.