Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[elrockinMT]

Do you really think Viciedo would bring "peak value" right now? Or at any point since we signed him? It's been clear since his first year that he was a project...a project with an incredibly high ceiling, but a project that was going to take one heckuva commitment to get there. That's not something that brings you "peak value".

 

 

I don't think you are wrong by any means. If he is a project or he is a potentiual star you have to at some point give him the opportunity to prove himself. If he has any potential such as Alexei he will figure it out. Alexei was able to adjust. I hope Dayan can too. There is no doubt he has to tools and has done a pretty good job in LF so far. I am willing to give him his chance if the Sox are. We are sitting in 1st place after 18 games with three marginal performers in the line up so it ain't like we are being drug down or anything. Imagine our success if those hitters put it together soon

Edited April 26, 2012 by elrockinMT

[Dick Allen]

52 ABs and people want to kick him to the curb. He sucks, but he's got a lot of value they say. What? The bottom line is the Sox have $10 million invested in this guy. They aren't going to get rid of him anytime soon unless its for someone they think is much better than him. Not for someone who may be better than him, and teams usually don't do you favors like that.

 

If you judge 23 year olds on 52 ABs, how in the world do you endorse rebuilding projects? You'd be suicidal by the second week of the season.

Edited April 26, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

Really? Because I just checked the stats for all of 2011. There were 7 left fielders in baseball who qualified in PA's and had an >800 OPS. There were...7 second basemen who met that standard.

 

The average OPS league-wide for LF's was .727 and for 2b was .708. And LF's had a needle loaded Ryan Braun who also stood out and helped carry that position.

 

It certainly seems like both are at a premium.

Don't cloud Joe/Marty with facts. It makes all his arguments insignificant, just like the White Sox without Ozzie.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Viciedo is only 23 years old and although a "project" has a high ceiling and has progressed nicely through the system. He has also shown to be a slow starter so it's not wise to prejudge him after only 18 games this season. Last year he should have been brought up when he was raking in AAA but unfortunately wasn't called up until after he hurt his thumb and subsequently cooled off.

 

IMHO he always had a higher ceiling then Gordon Beckham. I predicted Beckham would be a nice player, comparable to Tadahito Iguchi of 2005. I caught flak for that prediction because many here thought I was severely underestimating his potential. Now I'm sure everyone would be delighted if Beckham performed like Iguchi circa '05.

[Marty34]

He just did. He's trying out the idea here first to get a feel for how it would go over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry Marty, couldn't help myself.

 

No offense taken. I chuckle too when I see this even if it is a little played out. I understand Cowley is a lightening rod around here for beating down Soxtalk for being wrong about Adrian Gonzalez.

 

[RockRaines]

No, he's a lightning rod because he's a f***ing idiot with an agenda instead of actually doing his job and reporting. He never beat down anyone.

[Marty34]

Really? Because I just checked the stats for all of 2011. There were 7 left fielders in baseball who qualified in PA's and had an >800 OPS. There were...7 second basemen who met that standard.

 

The average OPS league-wide for LF's was .727 and for 2b was .708. And LF's had a needle loaded Ryan Braun who also stood out and helped carry that position.

 

It certainly seems like both are at a premium.

 

Don't care what one year of OPS says. Slugging LF'ers are simple to find.

 

[iamshack]

Do you really think Viciedo would bring "peak value" right now? Or at any point since we signed him? It's been clear since his first year that he was a project...a project with an incredibly high ceiling, but a project that was going to take one heckuva commitment to get there. That's not something that brings you "peak value".

I didn't say he would.

 

Would you rather get what Viciedo is worth now, or what he might be worth when EVERYONE knows he can't hit?

 

And before you jump on me, this is just my opinion, and I am expressing it. I'm not saying this is by any means proven or that it will happen.

 

I am just not a believer in Viciedo, so I'd rather get some value for him before all that value is gone.

 

Just because he is a project doesn't mean we have to hold on to him and pray until it is absolutely clear he is a failed project.

[Balta1701]

Don't care what one year of OPS says. Slugging LF'ers are simple to find.

That may be the saddest comeback to being hit with stats that I've ever seen.

[Marty34]

I didn't say he would.

 

Would you rather get what Viciedo is worth now, or what he might be worth when EVERYONE knows he can't hit?

 

And before you jump on me, this is just my opinion, and I am expressing it. I'm not saying this is by any means proven or that it will happen.

 

I am just not a believer in Viciedo, so I'd rather get some value for him before all that value is gone.

 

Just because he is a project doesn't mean we have to hold on to him and pray until it is absolutely clear he is a failed project.

 

What is this upside that is thrown around on this board. Hawk and a few people on this board think he could be the next Vlad Guerrero I guess, but I've never seen overt-the-top glowing reports on his potential.

[Dick Allen]

Don't care what one year of OPS says. Slugging LF'ers are simple to find.

Name a few that are available

[Dick Allen]

What is this upside that is thrown around on this board. Hawk and a few people on this board think he could be the next Vlad Guerrero I guess, but I've never seen overt-the-top glowing reports on his potential.

I always thought Carlos Lee when considering upside

[Balta1701]

What is this upside that is thrown around on this board. Hawk and a few people on this board think he could be the next Vlad Guerrero I guess, but I've never seen overt-the-top glowing reports on his potential.

Here's BA's first real article on him as a 19 year old, with a scout rating him as a better hitter than a guy who got a $2 million bonus from the Giants and became their top prospect (Prior to some murder charges).

 

Here's him getting called a "Top 3 pick".

A National League scouting director who raved about the youngster's hitting ability said Viciedo had lost 14 pounds before working out in front of about 100 major league scouts at the Sox's and Yankees' Dominican academies. The scout projected him as a first-round draft pick.

 

"We wanted him pretty badly," the scout said. "I was impressed by the way he ripped breaking pitches."

 

A scouting director for an American League team said Viciedo's hitting ability would make him a "top-three pick" if he were in the amateur draft.

 

Here's what his agent was saying about him, in an article written by Joe Cowley:

''He's not a regular ballplayer,'' said Torres, who also represents Ramirez and Contreras. ''If [Viciedo] was not from Cuba, he would be a middle linebacker in the NFL. But he's a ballplayer. He's very competitive and mature beyond his age.

 

''The young man, for a 19-year-old, the power he has, the hands he has, scouts have told me that there's no reason that he shouldn't be hitting 35-40 home runs a year.''

 

Torres wouldn't say what type of money he's seeking, but he expected two offers by Friday night and more after a scheduled workout Wednesday.

 

''He's done everything he needed,'' Torres said. ''I have not seen this much interest in a Cuban player since Jose.''

 

...

''Dayan has been playing at the international level since 14,'' Torres said. ''Teams have scouted him since then, and several have even said to me, 'I don't need to see him play -- I just want to make sure he still has two arms and two legs.' That's how highly they think of him.

 

''This kid was going to be the Babe Ruth of Cuba in his country's eyes, and they were sad to lose him. He was the future of Cuban baseball.''

[caulfield12]

A 3-4 month stretch.

 

 

The same 3-4 months that Gordon Beckham had in 2009?

 

Okay Marty/Cowley, who's the originator of finding "undervalued" players at positions where you can get bargain-basement deals, such as 1B/DH/LF/RF?

 

We'd all agree it might be Mr. Billy Beane.

 

And what did he do, since learning that all those years of signing a CoCo Crisp here or trading for a Willingham (who's raking for the Twins) there don't work so well if you want a real superstar slugging presence in a huge stadium where flyballs go to die on cold April evenings?

 

He went out and spent $45 million for four years on Yoenis Cespedes and took a flyer on Manny Ramirez.

 

That's how easy it is to find those types of bats...

 

Why did 29 other teams pass on Cespedes?

 

Why did the Mariners give up their best young pitcher in Pineda and another fine prospect in Jose Campos for Montero? Because there's a HUGE premium on young "impact" bats in the major leagues. And because the last "impact" bat they felt was a sure thing in Justin Smoak-o-Motive didn't turn out to be such a sure thing. Look at Brandon Belt in SF, Chris Davis, how long it has taken for him to develop as a hitter....how difficult it has been for the Rangers to find a slugging 1B since the Cubs traded them Rafael Palmeiro, etc.

 

There are only a few Hosmers out there, and even Eric wasn't a certified All-Star last year right off the bat. Very solid, patience for a young hitter that's unusual, but not GREAT numbers when you stack them up with the Konerkos/Gonzalezes/Pujoles/Texeiras/etc.

Edited April 26, 2012 by caulfield12

[iamshack]

Here's BA's first real article on him as a 19 year old, with a scout rating him as a better hitter than a guy who got a $2 million bonus from the Giants and became their top prospect (Prior to some murder charges).

 

Here's him getting called a "Top 3 pick".

 

 

Here's what his agent was saying about him, in an article written by Joe Cowley:

I don't think there is any questioning his power...unfortunately, there are softball leagues full of guys in every town with amazing power....the hard part is actually hitting MLB pitching, which, he has struggled to do consistently.

 

His upside, IMO, would be Adrian Beltre.

 

I just don't think the odds are very high that he fulfills that upside.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think there is any questioning his power...unfortunately, there are softball leagues full of guys in every town with amazing power....the hard part is actually hitting MLB pitching, which, he has struggled to do consistently.

 

His upside, IMO, would be Adrian Beltre.

 

I just don't think the odds are very high that he fulfills that upside.

 

He is also 23 years old. He could be in the minors, and no one would find that unusual. If he ends up as Beltre or Carlos Lee, that is a huge win for the Sox.

[iamshack]

He is also 23 years old. He could be in the minors, and no one would find that unusual. If he ends up as Beltre or Carlos Lee, that is a huge win for the Sox.

Ok, people keep mentioning his age, and that is fine, but of these players that enter the minor leagues at a very young age, or excel through the minor leagues at a young age, it seems to me as though there are very few that just take an extra long time because of their age. The "ripening" time of a major league prospect, if you will, really doesn't seem to vary all that much with age to me...it seems more like a certain number of years it takes to adjust to the increasingly better levels of competition, regardless of age.

 

I may be wrong, but I am not really recalling a whole lot of prospects who entered the minor leagues at a very young age, and just needed to spend the extra 2-4 years down there because they entered pro ball while some of their colleagues played in college, only to emerge in the big leagues right around the same age range.

[southsider2k5]

Ok, people keep mentioning his age, and that is fine, but of these players that enter the minor leagues at a very young age, or excel through the minor leagues at a young age, it seems to me as though there are very few that just take an extra long time because of their age. The "ripening" time of a major league prospect, if you will, really doesn't seem to vary all that much with age to me...it seems more like a certain number of years it takes to adjust to the increasingly better levels of competition, regardless of age.

 

I may be wrong, but I am not really recalling a whole lot of prospects who entered the minor leagues at a very young age, and just needed to spend the extra 2-4 years down there because they entered pro ball while some of their colleagues played in college, only to emerge in the big leagues right around the same age range.

 

How many guys his age or younger are putting up big numbers at the major league level?

[iamshack]

How many guys his age or younger are putting up big numbers at the major league level?

There have been all kinds of guys his age or younger that have broken in in the last several years and excelled at the mlb level...

 

Now that's not to say that he won't turn a corner when he turns 25 or something...like CarGo for instance, but I'm just not very aware of players that reached the higher levels of the minor leagues at really young ages, struggled at AAA or the major leagues, and just needed another 2-3 years because of their age. You usually either succeed or you don't once you reach this level, regardless of age.

[Balta1701]

There have been all kinds of guys his age or younger that have broken in in the last several years and excelled at the mlb level...

 

Now that's not to say that he won't turn a corner when he turns 25 or something...like CarGo for instance, but I'm just not very aware of players that reached the higher levels of the minor leagues at really young ages, struggled at AAA or the major leagues, and just needed another 2-3 years because of their age. You usually either succeed or you don't once you reach this level, regardless of age.

Really? I feel like at least needing a year is incredibly common.

[caulfield12]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30103/dayan-viciedo

 

Look at his career stats, all major league games.

 

.697 OPS, most would probably agree that's the VERY BOTTOM, the floor.

 

That's only 30 points off the MLB averages that Balta quoted for the position. And, he didn't even learn how to start taking walks until last year at AAA. Now he's gotten away from that again, but it's only 50 at-bats we're looking at folks. In some ways, he's become too passive and not aggressive like when he first came up in 2010...hearing mixed messages perhaps about patience vs. taking the first hittable pitch and ripping it (see AJ Pierzynski).

 

He's probably not going to be a 30 homer hitter, but 18-24 homers is clearly a rational expectation. The RBI numbers are skewed low, but you have to look at where he's been hitting in the major league line-up at that time.

 

Now iamshack will probably argue that Ozzie protected him and gave him the most favorable match-ups and that those numbers are skewed up, but we'll never find out if he doesn't play a full season.

 

We have NO OTHER young hitters that can be impact bats, he's cost-affordable, so someone who's only 30 points below the AVERAGE MLB LFer at age 23 seems like someone you'd want to hold onto.

 

But that's just me.

 

 

[iamshack]

Really? I feel like at least needing a year is incredibly common.

Well, this will now be the third year he is seeing major league pitching. I know he has only gotten 100 PAs each of the last two years, but it's time to put up or shut up.

 

I don't think even Marty is arguing that he shouldn't play...I think the two of us just don't think he will pan out...I don't think that should be confused with us saying "bench him."

[iamshack]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30103/dayan-viciedo

 

Look at his career stats, all major league games.

 

.697 OPS, most would probably agree that's the VERY BOTTOM, the floor.

 

That's only 30 points off the MLB averages that Balta quoted for the position. And, he didn't even learn how to start taking walks until last year at AAA. Now he's gotten away from that again, but it's only 50 at-bats we're looking at folks. In some ways, he's become too passive and not aggressive like when he first came up in 2010...hearing mixed messages perhaps about patience vs. taking the first hittable pitch and ripping it (see AJ Pierzynski).

 

He's probably not going to be a 30 homer hitter, but 18-24 homers is clearly a rational expectation. The RBI numbers are skewed low, but you have to look at where he's been hitting in the major league line-up at that time.

 

Now iamshack will probably argue that Ozzie protected him and gave him the most favorable match-ups and that those numbers are skewed up, but we'll never find out if he doesn't play a full season.

 

We have NO OTHER young hitters that can be impact bats, he's cost-affordable, so someone who's only 30 points below the AVERAGE MLB LFer at age 23 seems like someone you'd want to hold onto.

 

But that's just me.

There is no doubt he was protected! He's only faced left handers, for the most part the last two years! That is a fact.

 

Not only is he hitting below average, but he's below average defensively as well. I just don't have a ton of room on my roster for guys that are below average hitters and fielders...now, is could he be a nice bat off the bench or a nice platoon bat? Sure. I just think we could get more value than that by trading him now than if we wait til it becomes apparent that that is all he is.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Well, this will now be the third year he is seeing major league pitching. I know he has only gotten 100 PAs each of the last two years, but it's time to put up or shut up.

 

I don't think even Marty is arguing that he shouldn't play...I think the two of us just don't think he will pan out...I don't think that should be confused with us saying "bench him."

Really? I certainly didn't come into this season expecting put up or shut up for him. He's had indifferent experience and he's been completely jerked around and given the Ozzie "take this Kenny!" benching, in addition to having 3+ positions in 4 years (3b, 1b, 3b, rf, LF). And especially after the injury last year, he could still use a few months at Charlotte if the big league team was going for the division this year.

[iamshack]

Really? I certainly didn't come into this season expecting put up or shut up for him. He's had indifferent experience and he's been completely jerked around and given the Ozzie "take this Kenny!" benching, in addition to having 3+ positions in 4 years (3b, 1b, 3b, rf, LF). And especially after the injury last year, he could still use a few months at Charlotte if the big league team was going for the division this year.

Well those are your expectations. I have mine.

 

If you can find the list of guys that have bounced back and forth between AAA and the MLB for 3-5 years, regardless of age, and went on to be all-star caliber players, I doubt it's very long...