Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[Balta1701]

Well those are your expectations. I have mine.

 

If you can find the list of guys that have bounced back and forth between AAA and the MLB for 3-5 years, regardless of age, and went on to be all-star caliber players, I doubt it's very long...

The list of 19-20 year olds in AA isn't that long either. Hell, the list of guys who got to the bigs at 21 is even shorter, and I'd bet a lot of te bounced back and forth.

[iamshack]

The list of 19-20 year olds in AA isn't that long either. Hell, the list of guys who got to the bigs at 21 is even shorter, and I'd bet a lot of te bounced back and forth.

But he's 23 now and hasn't made significant progress since then.

[Balta1701]

But he's 23 now and hasn't made significant progress since then.

Except for getting better with the bats every year. That all important walk rate was improving every year too. And then one injury setback to boot.

[iamshack]

Except for getting better with the bats every year. That all important walk rate was improving every year too. And then one injury setback to boot.

I'm not seeing any evidence of that this year.

[Balta1701]

I'm not seeing any evidence of that this year.

Because its April and es not in Charlotte because the team is in rebuilding mode.

[iamshack]

Because its April and es not in Charlotte because the team is in rebuilding mode.

How many years do you want to him to repeat AAA?

 

And what the f*** does April have to do with his ability to have good at bats?

Edited April 27, 2012 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

How many years do you want to him to repeat AAA?

 

And what the f*** does April have to do with his ability to have good at bats?

If you're expecting him to come up and contribute immediately in put up or shut up mode, then AAA until he was actually ready would be the rule.

 

And you're just pretending if you didn't expect him to get off to a bad start. I did.

[iamshack]

If you're expecting him to come up and contribute immediately in put up or shut up mode, then AAA until he was actually ready would be the rule.

 

And you're just pretending if you didn't expect him to get off to a bad start. I did.

No, I'm saying the stud prospects that turn into stud players don't usually struggle every April or struggle with major league pitching in three consecutive years, regardless of how few at bats they get.

 

At some point they show tangible progress. I'm not seeing ab's that look much different than the ones I saw in 2010. In fact, for the most part they look worse.

[caulfield12]

Because Crede and Rowand, both older and more experienced players, especially Rowand, tore up the major leagues the first time they played for the White Sox.

 

Not.

 

It took both of them 2-3 seasons to establish themselves as regulars, and it wasn't until they were actually given an opportunity to play everyday that this happened.

 

The "win now" mentality is the same one that now has us trading Dayan Viciedo after just 50 AB's when his career MLB OPS is around 700 before the age of 23.

[iamshack]

Because Crede and Rowand, both older and more experienced players, especially Rowand, tore up the major leagues the first time they played for the White Sox.

 

Not.

 

It took both of them 2-3 seasons to establish themselves as regulars, and it wasn't until they were actually given an opportunity to play everyday that this happened.

 

The "win now" mentality is the same one that now has us trading Dayan Viciedo after just 50 AB's when his career MLB OPS is around 700 before the age of 23.

Ugh.

 

I'm sure we can find players in the course of White Sox history that have had initial struggles and then gone on to succeed. In fact, this is the usual MLB experience.

 

Nowhere am I arguing that Viciedo has no chance to succeed.

 

All I said is I DO NOT SEE THE PROGRESS OCCURRING. I DON'T SEE HIM ANYMORE AS A FUTURE STUD HITTER.

 

Feel free to do so yourselves.

 

IMHO, I'd deal him.

Edited April 27, 2012 by iamshack

[caulfield12]

Fine, iamshack.

 

Can you name any time in recent MLB history an organization's top hitting prospect (or one year removed, after his rookie status is used up) has been traded in April or May of the following year?

 

Yeah, we get it. You don't want him to end up like Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchmann or Dallas McPherson.

 

The problem is that, as Fathom pointed out earlier, his development and "breakthrough" as a major league player is worth a lot more to the White Sox in the next two seaons than any other team in the majors. Not just for KW's job, because you can guarantee a trade of Viciedo would result in 1,000 daggers from the media calling for Williams' head, yes?

 

It's because we're not going to receive a comparable impact bat anywhere close to the major leagues. Just because we took Joe Borchard and turned him into Matt Thornton doesn't mean it's easy to replicate that trade.

 

The minor league bats we would get would be Trayce Thompson or below equivalents (if we were lucky), all 2-3 years away from the majors and none satisfying the fans' bloodlust to be in "win now" mode and screw having patience with any young player who doesn't become an All-Star in his first or second season.

 

Look at all the patience they've shown with Gordon Beckham. Morel has gotten many more AB's than Viciedo, as well.

We can't afford to have more than one of those three guys fail if we realistically want to compete going forward, because JR's not going to just open up the pursestrings again based on pure faith.

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Guess Dayan read this thread before the game.

 

I'm guessing after tonight his career MLB totals will be not so far off from that 727 OPS line Balta quoted.

 

He has 9 homers in 262 career at-bats, so you can double that for a (once again) conservative estimate of 18 homers in a season.

 

(This is where iamshack will say he can't do that playing everyday against RHP and LHP).

 

24 doubles to go with those 18 homers. Not great stats, but clearly not "team-killing" or "offense-killing" like Beckham or Morel. You also have to consider much of that was accomplished at the major league level when he was only 21 years old.

 

An average of around .260-.270.

 

 

But, by all mean, let's trade him for Boston's current equivalent of Josh Reddick...since Crawford might miss a significant period of the season and Ross/McDonald/Sweeney/Byrd still is going to come up short offensively over the long haul.

 

Edited April 27, 2012 by caulfield12

[JPN366]

I'm sure the Dodgers and Reds wished they hadn't given up on Paul Konerko so quickly.

[caulfield12]

And the Reds probably even wished they had kept Cameron longer...he matured into an All-Star player with the Mariners, EVENTUALLY.

 

Or could use the example of David Ortiz in Minnesota.

[Reddy]

And the Reds probably even wished they had kept Cameron longer...he matured into an All-Star player with the Mariners, EVENTUALLY.

 

Or could use the example of David Ortiz in Minnesota.

yeah. and Mike Caruso turned out really great with... wait what? oh... oh there are just as many examples on either side of the coin? oh, well ok then...

[Jake]

You people are crazy.

[caulfield12]

LOL.

 

We have no idea what will happen with anyone on the White Sox.

 

Therefore, really no point for uninformed, "non-professional" pseudo-experts to even bother expressing their opinions.

 

Just let KW handle everything and park your butt in a seat, or not, depending on your preference.

[caulfield12]

I wonder how many people would take on that Cespedes contract RIGHT NOW...(forget about the possible compensation to the A's)...knowing that it would essentially be a $55 million/4 year contract because you're going to be forced to trade Dayan Viciedo as a result for almost nothing in return??

 

But, at least we'd have a potential superstar, a much better defensive outfield and a legitimate personality we could market in Chicago....lots of if's, and's and but's, surely, and it's always easy to spend someone else's money, right?

 

 

Was just thinking about who I'd want to take Morel's place if he continues to struggle...two or three or four months from now.

Would it be Dallas McPherson, Lillibridge, Tyler Kuhn, Conor Jackson (just started playing 3B again in AAA) or GASP, Brandon Inge?

 

For Beckham, same thing...

Kuhn, Lillibridge, Escobar, Ozzie Martinez or Brandon Inge.

 

 

Inge would obviously be a stop-gap, but I love the idea of having a former Tigger (one that Harrelson still loves irrationally) getting a chance to revenge himself upon the MoTown boys. And he did put up very respectable when he was in AAA last year, but he's 35/36 years old and has a lot of wear and tear on that body.

 

It also struck me that he could be a band-aid, one year stopgap for our catching position if Flowers/Phegley can't cut it...2nd or 3rd catcher, back-up infielder, jack of all trades like McEwing/Oquendo type.

 

When you have to weigh Inge versus Eduardo Escobar's career 666 minor league OPS that's highly unlikely to improve at the major league level, might actually be inclined to go with Inge.

 

 

 

[hogan873]

I've glanced through most of this thread, and I've come to the conclusion that this is a stupid argument. So, we're going to say Viciedo is not worth the wait when the wait has essentially been 18 games? You can say bring in the numbers from last year and the year before, but this is the first time that he has started at the MLB level...and he's still quite young. I believe that with regular playing time, we will begin to see more games like yesterday's. The guy can hit, and his defense is not as bad as feared. Will he be the second coming of Frank Thomas? That's doubtful, but he could easily be a .270+, 20+ HR guy, and I'll take that.

[Jake]

The fact is, sample size is still small. We've actually seen the kid excel for (short) bursts at the ML level before, so it's not like he can't do it. Don't forget some people are notoriously slow starters in general, not to mention this is already the longest time he's been in a starting role in the MLB. You can even consider factors like some cold weather, etc. as well but we can't really know the effect.

 

I like Manto and most of Viciedo's problems involve approach so I'm not too worried. He may have this or that hole in his swing, but everyone has the "can't hit pitches above your shoulders hole" so I'd like to see him quit swinging at high fastballs, for instance, and we'll see how bad those holes look as his pitch selection improves.

[Kyyle23]

yeah. and Mike Caruso turned out really great with... wait what? oh... oh there are just as many examples on either side of the coin? oh, well ok then...

 

Maybe if Caruso didnt like the mary jane so much, he would have realized his potential.

 

Bottom line for me is, Im not ready to cash in the chips on Viciedo after his first April in the majors.

[Balta1701]

I like Manto and most of Viciedo's problems involve approach so I'm not too worried. He may have this or that hole in his swing, but everyone has the "can't hit pitches above your shoulders hole" so I'd like to see him quit swinging at high fastballs, for instance, and we'll see how bad those holes look as his pitch selection improves.

If you watched his minor league numbers, he also clearly became a more patient hitter with time, which is exactly what I'd expect to see from this kid in the majors as well. He's again gearing up to face a new level of pitching, so learning how to take a pitcher's pitch or foul it off is going to take him some time.

[Marty34]

No, I'm saying the stud prospects that turn into stud players don't usually struggle every April or struggle with major league pitching in three consecutive years, regardless of how few at bats they get.

 

At some point they show tangible progress. I'm not seeing ab's that look much different than the ones I saw in 2010. In fact, for the most part they look worse.

 

This is exactly right.

 

The idea that if he turns in to Carlos Lee it's a "major" win for the Sox, no it's not. Carlos Lee was okay when he was cheap, but he became a liability once his salary went up. Viciedo doesn't have as many cheap years as Lee did.

[Balta1701]

Viciedo doesn't have as many cheap years as Lee did.

Why?

[southsider2k5]

Why?

 

$10 million signing bonus I would assume.