Why are you taking this huge gamble for no or a very remote upside possibility? The odds of him being an important piece either because we're competitive or because he turns into a valuable asset are remote. Maybe 2 in 10? I don't know why you'd want to spend all the money on those odds when you could take a mulligan. It's just silly.

 

Additionally, he's probably going to be taking the innings of someone we should be developing instead.

 

There is a gamble of letting John Danks pitch for a contender w/ a mid-3's ERA as he is quite liable to do. I think there is a far better chance than 20% that he ends being around a $15 million/year pitcher. Contracts have their setbacks, but in the end, lots of people want a guy like a healthy John Danks. If you want to build your team/farm up, you want to be able to turn him into young players. If you want to be good, you want a battle-tested pitcher on your team.

 

I wouldn't stamp my feet and cry if we let him go in this mythical scenario, but I don't think it's so cut and dry.

Nice timing of Hawk and Stoney bashing the defense and then another Alexei error.

Nice timing of Hawk and Stoney bashing the defense and then another Alexei error.

 

Pretty tough error, kind of like Rios getting charged for one last night

When will we see Paulie take a nice, aggressive cut on a fastball and loft it over the LF fence?

Danks put up a sub 3.50 ERA once. At best he is paid market value and no reason for us to take the 15 million per year risk to find out if he's even that.

I am of the opinion Danks gives up too many homers

I don't hate Kepp, but he's about the last guy I want to see up with a man on first and 2 out

There is a gamble of letting John Danks pitch for a contender w/ a mid-3's ERA as he is quite liable to do. I think there is a far better chance than 20% that he ends being around a $15 million/year pitcher. Contracts have their setbacks, but in the end, lots of people want a guy like a healthy John Danks. If you want to build your team/farm up, you want to be able to turn him into young players. If you want to be good, you want a battle-tested pitcher on your team.

 

I wouldn't stamp my feet and cry if we let him go in this mythical scenario, but I don't think it's so cut and dry.

When the best scenario is that you basically break even, and the odds of that are low, it's probably not smart to miss out on the chance of taking a mulligan on the deal.

 

Tell me why it is that young players are so desirable again?

Danks has given up a homerun on 17.5 percent of his flyballs. That isn't sustainable. Players tend to cluster around a 10.5 percent rate over larger sample sizes. Trading Danks now would be stupid because you would be trading a player when his value is lowest. It's better to wait this out.

When the best scenario is that you basically break even, and the odds of that are low, it's probably not smart to miss out on the chance of taking a mulligan on the deal.

 

Tell me why it is that young players are so desirable again?

 

With the TV money going out next year and just normal player salary inflation, it gets easier and easier to outperform the $15 million number as time goes on

With the TV money going out next year and just normal player salary inflation, it gets easier and easier to outperform the $15 million number as time goes on

Ok, and why do we need to turn Danks into young players?

I am of the opinion Danks gives up too many homers

 

15 in 70 innings(before tonite) is a lot?

Ok, and why do we need to turn Danks into young players?

 

Firstly, we don't have to do that. If you did, it is like most deals - you think the collection of players you receive will be worth more wins than the guy you trade away. Particular to our situation, unless something changes, chances are that a trade of Danks for young (or old? I don't give a s***) bats involves trading from a position of strength to cover a position of need.

Firstly, we don't have to do that. If you did, it is like most deals - you think the collection of players you receive will be worth more wins than the guy you trade away. Particular to our situation, unless something changes, chances are that a trade of Danks for young (or old? I don't give a s***) bats involves trading from a position of strength to cover a position of need.

Oh, for a moment I thought it might have had something to do with money...

And another

18 homers in 74 1/3 innings

18 homers in 74 1/3 innings

 

Alexei's best bet to homer again this year is get traded to an AL team and face Danks

Oh, for a moment I thought it might have had something to do with money...

 

Money plays a role. Money is meant to buy you certainty. Young players not costing money is meant to offset the risk that they are worthless.

I really hope Danks doesn't have 3 more seasons of a Jaime Navarro type outcome. Not saying he will, I just hope that's not what's coming.

Money plays a role. Money is meant to buy you certainty. Young players not costing money is meant to offset the risk that they are worthless.

Really?

 

So why would we pay all that money to Danks again?

Pretty tough error, kind of like Rios getting charged for one last night

 

It was a bad throw, but going to the discussion on PK's defense, that is the type of error he saves.

John's doctor fixed my shoulder in May so I get to ask him about John on a fairly regular basis. He tells me that the most optimistic outcome for John is that roughly August is when he could start to have normal velocity and normal command. He said the surgery is very simple, reinjury risk is low, but recovery takes a bit and he would be surprised if John pitches like his old self before he gets an offseason at normal health. This is where I'm coming from thinking that John will be okay.

It was a bad throw, but going to the discussion on PK's defense, that is the type of error he saves.

 

I thought Dunn was solid defensively last year, but he's been horrendous this season

Really?

 

So why would we pay all that money to Danks again?

 

Yep, ask the Red Sox how nice it is to get a mulligan on bad contracts (last year's trade with Dodgers)

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 5m

 

The last 11 runs John Danks has given up have all come via the home run.