Go Pirates, I guess

Good idea

 

Really, really hoping the Pirates can win the whole thing. It hasn't been 88 years, but that would be one of the more gratifying World Series wins in recent years.

The Pirates... you gotta be kidding me.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Go Cards.

Good idea

 

Really, really hoping the Pirates can win the whole thing. It hasn't been 88 years, but that would be one of the more gratifying World Series wins in recent years.

 

 

1960, 1971 and 1979...

 

It just seems like a long time because you're younger probably, and the last 20 years have been similar to what the Royals have experienced (except the Royals haven't been relevant since the 1980's), so it seems worse than the actual history would tell you.

1960, 1971 and 1979...

 

It just seems like a long time because you're younger probably, and the last 20 years have been similar to what the Royals have experienced (except the Royals haven't been relevant since the 1980's), so it seems worse than the actual history would tell you.

 

No, I'm saying 20 years in a row of sub .500 baseball destroys a fan base, especially after they were teased the past couple of years. Besides that, they still have a long World Series drought than the Royals do.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Go Cards.

Wouldn't both teams fit that?

Well this one is over quickly

...too bad it was only worth one run.

Beltran hit a hr. Really one of the greatest postseason hitters ever.

Wouldn't both teams fit that?

 

The Cards are a WAY bigger rival of the Cubs. It isn't even in the same stratosphere.

Beltran might be one of the players from this generation who does make the Hall of Fame and hasn't been tainted by the PED's brush as far as we know, yes?

 

Leaving Frank Thomas, Thome, Griffey, Jr., Omar Vizquel, Ichiro and Derek Jeter.

 

Who else is out there from the last 10-15 years?

 

There's a TON of suspicion now about Pujols, to be honest.

Beltran hit a hr. Really one of the greatest postseason hitters ever.

 

I don't really believe in "clutch" when it comes to baseball, but Beltran in the playoffs seems to prove me wrong.

The Cards are a WAY bigger rival of the Cubs. It isn't even in the same stratosphere.

 

That's because the Pirates built the cubs mid-2000 teams by handing them productive players.

 

The Reds, Cards and Pirates have to be keeping Theo up at night.

That's because the Pirates built the cubs mid-2000 teams by handing them productive players.

 

The Reds, Cards and Pirates have to be keeping Theo up at night.

 

Even before that. The Cards have always been the Cubs rival.

Beltran might be one of the players from this generation who does make the Hall of Fame and hasn't been tainted by the PED's brush as far as we know, yes?

 

Leaving Frank Thomas, Thome, Griffey, Jr., Omar Vizquel, Ichiro and Derek Jeter.

 

Who else is out there from the last 10-15 years?

 

There's a TON of suspicion now about Pujols, to be honest.

 

I'll eat my shoe if Beltran makes the Hall.

I'll eat my shoe if Beltran makes the Hall.

 

 

Carlos Beltran should be headed to the Hall of Fame.

 

[Cue mass hysteria! Seriously, please hear me out.]

 

In the Cardinals Game 1 rout in the NLDS over the Pirates, he showed part of the reason why. Because his postseason numbers are the tiebreaker on a borderline regular-season career.

 

After going 1-for-5 with three RBI Thursday -- which includes him crushing a three-run, upper deck homer to get the scoring started in the third inning -- Beltran is now hitting .357/.455/.783 in playoff games.

 

He has the highest career postseason slugging percentage and OPS (1.238) in baseball history. According to Elias Sports Bureau, Beltran is tied for the highest home run rate in postseason play with Babe Ruth (both Beltran and Babe have 15 homers in 129 at-bats -- so one home run for every 8.6 at-bats). Ever heard of him?

 

In terms of postseason play, an argument could be made Beltran is the best postseason hitter of all-time.

 

On the Hall of Fame, though, I'm not suggesting Beltran is a Hall of Famer based only upon his 35 postseason games. That would be ridiculous and anyone who thinks I'm doing that isn't paying attention or particularly smart. As I said earlier, Beltran is a borderline Hall of Famer in regular-season play, so the insane postseason numbers push him over the edge, for me.

 

And now onto why he's a borderline regular-season Hall of Famer.

 

We're talking about a guy with over 350 homers and 300 stolen bases. Here are the only players in baseball history to have done that: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Andre Dawson and Beltran.

 

The eight-time All-Star Beltran carries a career triple-slash line of .283/.359/.496, good enough for a 122 OPS+ (22 percent better than the league average throughout his entire career). His 67.5 WAR (baseball-reference.com version) puts him 83rd among position players in history. That might not sound impressive, but we need to think about just how many thousands upon thousands of position players have even taken the field. He also has 446 doubles, getting him close to the top 100 ever (104th right now).

 

Also, take note of the players who accumulated less WAR over their respective careers: Roberto Alomar, Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Craig Biggio, Andre Dawson, Willie McCovey, Dave Winfield, Billy Williams, Richie Ashburn, Billy Hamilton (the guy who played from 1888-1901, not the Reds rookie speedster), Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Mark McGwire, Harmon Killebrew, Yogi Berra and, well, you get the idea. Those players are all either in the Hall of Fame or have statistical Hall of Fame cases but aren't in for different reasons.

 

Also on baseball-reference.com, they run a statistical similars stat. Of the top 10 similars through age 36 for Beltran, four (Winfield, Dawson, Williams and Jim Rice) are in the Hall of Fame.

 

Also, using Jay Jaffe's JAWS formula -- an attempt to put one number on a player's Hall of Fame case -- Beltran ranks only behind the following among center fielders**: Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., Joe DiMaggio and Snider. He ranks ahead of the the following Hall of Famers: Ashburn, Dawson, Hamilton, Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Max Carey, Earl Averill, Edd Roush, Earle Combs, Hack Wilson, Hugh Duffy and Ned Hanlon.

 

**The list includes anyone who ever appeared in center field, not necessarily guys who played most of their games in center.

 

Some people may think there are too many Hall of Famers, but based upon established Hall of Fame criteria -- that is, players who have already been inducted into the Hall of Fame -- Beltran makes it on regular-season performance alone and his sick postseason numbers should just be gravy. Still, strict, old-school voters might not think his counting stats in runs (1,346), hits (2,228) and RBI (1,327) or his batting average are good enough. They'll also scoff at WAR and JAWS, many in close-minded fashion. And I understand that, which is why I called him a borderline Hall of Famer earlier.

 

But the unbelievable postseason numbers should eventually be the tilting point, because Carlos Beltran belongs in Cooperstown.

 

 

www.cbssportsline.com

And he Starts today with a double

Edited October 4, 201312 yr by Buehrle>Wood

I certainly believe in "clutch" - we know physiologically that you can use adrenaline to drastically increase strength, improve vision, think quickly.

 

With that said, I think "clutch" is incredibly hard to measure. Baseball requires large sample sizes because some guys get very lucky, some get unlucky. Beyond that, there are other variables than clutchness that can affect a player's clutch statistics. Maybe the way people pitch in the playoffs, or the way relievers pitch, or what happens with a man on first base vs not, etc etc can explain good or bad performance in the clutch. Imagine Conor Gillaspie - he could have a super-awesome clutch ability, but that might make his OPS against LHP only go from .350 to .600 in clutch situations

Lance Lynn is the opposite of playoff clutch.

I certainly believe in "clutch" - we know physiologically that you can use adrenaline to drastically increase strength, improve vision, think quickly.

 

With that said, I think "clutch" is incredibly hard to measure. Baseball requires large sample sizes because some guys get very lucky, some get unlucky. Beyond that, there are other variables than clutchness that can affect a player's clutch statistics. Maybe the way people pitch in the playoffs, or the way relievers pitch, or what happens with a man on first base vs not, etc etc can explain good or bad performance in the clutch. Imagine Conor Gillaspie - he could have a super-awesome clutch ability, but that might make his OPS against LHP only go from .350 to .600 in clutch situations

 

My whole thing about "clutch" in baseball is the randomness in small sample sizes in the sport. Can you really judge a player on a 30-50 postseason ABs? No, but that's what people tend to do. If you give a guy enough at-bats, he should peform up this expected stats. Of course, there will be a little variance between different players, but I don't think it is that extreme.

 

Look at a guy like David Ortiz, with all those big postseason homers he hit, he is always considered "clutch". His career regular season splits: .287/.381/.549. Career postseason splits: .283/.388/.520. Basically, he has been the same player in the regular season as the playoffs, minus a little power. It's not about him being clutch, it's about him being a very good hitter that's gonna get his hits if you give him the chance.

There's a TON of suspicion now about Pujols, to be honest.

 

Better late than never.

"You know, I'm not sure if I wouldn't just give Beltran the Bonds treatment here and walk him".

 

-Things I was sort of thinking there but wouldn't actually say publicly or type. Then he drives in 2.

This time I actually said out loud "Yeah I think I'd walk Beltran here" when he came up leading off the 8th inning with the Cardinals down 1. My wife heard it.

Balta, where are you on the "Beltran for HOF" debate?

 

 

And, good God, the Cardinals have a ton of talented young pitching. But maybe this is just the Pirates' year. However, you can never EVER count out St. Louis.

Edited October 6, 201312 yr by caulfield12