Don't get too excited, they haven't been released yet for the Sox, although it appears very soon, because Dan Szymborski couldn't sleep so he started running some of the projections......

 

The results aren't going to make too many people here happy....

 

 

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 23m

Decided not to go to bed. Decided to run White Sox ZiPS projections. Now too scared to go to sleep.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 20m

After Sale and Quintana, White Sox pitching ZiPS are more depressing than a Darren Aronofsky movie.

 

In reference to a question about Riezno....

 

@asroka He's at least interesting, more than you can say for most of the system

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 13m

@SportsJunkie854 Tweeted him awhile back - Eaton's not a great fit for the Cell.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 9m

Well, one bit of good news - ZiPS likes Marcus Semien quite a bit.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 6m

Jared Mitchell's projected offensive line is...uh...interesting.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 4m

List of ZiPS White Sox Batters over 2 WAR: Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramirez. End of list.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 3m

List of White Sox hitters projected within 30 points of OPS+ of Jose Abreu: End of list.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 2m

Don't tell the people asleep, but Abreu's at 273/364/494, OPS+ 129, 2.3 WAR, 26 HR. HR heavy profile good fit for the Cell.

Edited January 14, 201412 yr by Chilihead90

Brian Cartwright ‏@blcartwright 18m

@DSzymborski Oliver likes Abreu a little better, 280/348/520 w/WSox, 33 HR per 600 PA.

 

I would be very happy if Abreu put up numbers somewhere between the ZiPS and Oliver projections.

Meh. I find Aronofsky films inspiring - so, f*** all this noise.

The WAR projections scare me. So we only have 2 hitters with a WAR over 2.0, with Abreu leading the team at 2.3 WAR. Ouch. That's worse than last year.

Maybe I'm wrong, but aren't these projection systems typically pretty bad with young players?

 

Also, I'd love to see what they're projecting for Erik Johnson based on those comments.

 

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 13m

@SportsJunkie854 Tweeted him awhile back - Eaton's not a great fit for the Cell.

 

 

Did anyone locate this tweet about Eaton's projection? (anyone who can actually take a walk is a good fit for this team)

Nobody should actually worry about any of this. For guys like Abreu it's purely a shot in the dark. So many others don't have enough sample size to expect any accuracy. A guy like Danks could have a huge variance depending on level of recovery.

 

~31 days til pitchers and catchers report.

 

I'd take these projections with a grain of salt. Hard to project players getting ready start their first full major league season. I'm sure some projections will be close and others way out there.

 

I'd also like you all to go check the projections for 2005.

 

not saying we're that good, but projections don't mean much when you're dealing with so many unknowns

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2006

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2007

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2008

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2010

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2011

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2012

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-p...cago-white-sox/2013

Edited January 15, 201412 yr by The Ultimate Champion

And here you have the Official Lillian All-Star team:

 

Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3

Brown* lf .264 .342 .418 109 390 50 103 24 0 12 52 42 71 4 5

Gload* lf .304 .348 .501 122 369 50 112 27 2 14 56 26 54 1 3

Rogowski* 1b .254 .340 .379 135 464 71 118 24 2 10 53 53 104 11 9

Casanova c .253 .306 .418 80 261 29 66 13 0 10 38 19 40 0 0

Ernie Young rf 37 .246 .334 .401 101 337 43 83 16 0 12 59 40 117 1 2

Wiki Gonzalez c 34 .258 .311 .407 54 182 16 47 9 0 6 27 12 19 1 0

Jack Egbert 25 4.72 9 10 30 28 164.0 180 86 16 67 101

 

I personally find this one funny:

2006 Frank Thomas dh .231 .348 .456 104 342 47 79 20 0 19 61 56 82 0 1

2006 Casey Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3

 

ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder.

Also on all of those links I posted, only 5 times has a Sox batter been predicted to hit 30 HR or more

 

I guess Eaton isn't the only guy who apparently isn't a fit for the Cell

Wasn't Nate Silver the one that said these systems typically underrate the Sox?

Wasn't Nate Silver the one that said these systems typically underrate the Sox?

 

Nah, FanGraphs wrote about how Nate Silver's projections weren't applicable to the Sox.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...ng-projections/

 

Except last year. Last year we were worse.

I personally find this one funny:

2006 Frank Thomas dh .231 .348 .456 104 342 47 79 20 0 19 61 56 82 0 1

2006 Casey Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3

 

ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder.

 

While I'm not defending the accuracy of this or any other projection system, with the case of Thomas, the projection has to take into account he would be 38 that year and had only played 74 and then 34 games the previous 2 years. Even then it predicted an .804 OPS for him. Thomas was so good that once healthy he would outperform that level in 06 and 07 before falling off in his age 40 season.

Edited January 15, 201412 yr by Vance Law

ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder.

 

Yes, if you take it literally and say "Oh, that's what these guys WILL put up." It's a projection - it's used as what should be expected under normal circumstances. As you are well aware, circumstances are not always normal. Thomas proved healthy and in relatively good shape in 2006 and absolutely tore the cover off the ball. There is nothing wrong with them at all. There are also different systems, and, if you order the full ZiPS projections, they will have high end and low end projections as well.

 

As a fan, you don't have to pay attention to projections, but you still make projections yourself. They are just as useless but they set the framework for what you expect certain players to do on the baseball field. If you didn't make projections, the name Jose Abreu would mean nothing to you and you'd merely assume that he was another slap-hitting Dominican prospect.

 

And here they are...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

And here they are...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

 

Surprising to see them give Sale such a boost in WAR. That 5.7 WAR will get him some serious Cy Young consideration. Usually it's about the 6 WAR level that makes you a contender.

Here's some fun Steamer projections: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=22,d

 

Eaton as top position player with 2.3 WAR

Alexei 2.1

...Phegley 1.2

...Beckham 1.1

...Dayan 0.9

...ADA .9

...Davidson .9

 

Oliver (assumes every player is full time, while Steamer tries to prognosticate playing time/injuries): http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=22,d

 

Eaton, top dog again: 3.4 WAR

Avisail: 2.9 WAR

Phegs: 2.8 (you can see how much your last MiLB season factors in between Phegs and Avi)

ADA: 2.8

Semien: 2.6

Flowers: 2.2

Jake Elmore: 2.2

Alexei: 2.2

Leury: 2.1

Gillaspie: 1.7

 

A few guys making all their hay on defense in there

 

Steamer for pitchers:

 

Sale - 4.6 WAR, 3.17 FIP

Quintana - 2.7 WAR, 4.05 FIP

Danks - 1.3 WAR, 4.42 FIP

E. Johnson - 1.1 WAR, 4.43 FIP

 

Jones - .8 WAR, 3.34 FIP

 

Phegley with...a...positive...WAR?